NLDS Game 4 preview
We’re up 2-1 on the Cards. We’re at home. We’re staring down the barrel of the NLCS. We’re the hottest team in baseball right now. We injured approximately 27 small business owners last night with Yabos. It’s almost to the point where we need to put a net in front of the bleachers because some day there will be a kid out there that takes a Kyle Schwarber Yabo directly to the face at mach speed 1. And then no one will be laughing (publicly).
But before we get into the future of Yaboism, and its potential negative consequences, let’s take a quick look at game 4’s matchup and how this thing should play out.
Spoiler Alert: I’ve been dead on balls accurate so far this postseason, so if you like an element of surprise to your baseball, I suggest you stop reading.
Hammel vs. Lackey – Hammel’s been a tale of two pitchers this season. Absolutely on fire to start the season (remember when he was our best pitcher?) to dropping off in the second half after injuring a hamstring. He’s been up and down, in and out, however you want to describe it. So there’s some questions heading into game 4 as to what we’ll get from him.
Personally, I think he’s too seasoned, too experienced, and surrounded by too much (for a lack of better words) juju to let this opportunity slip away. I think he comes out laser focused in the first, mostly because that’s been his biggest weakness so far. He pounds away with fastballs early most of the time, but today I think we see the whole mix. I think he’s past the point of compensating for his hamstring issues which drastically took away from his command. Kinda like what we talked about yesterday with Wacha – the second you start compromising your delivery to make up for an injury or timing issue or whatever, you’re going to be in big BIG trouble.
So if Hammel really is 100% and recovered from his hamstring issues (he should be… he hasn’t pitched since October 1st when he threw 5 scoreless at Cinci), then I think we’re going to get a quality start from him. He throws with tremendous angle, he’s got a kitchen sink mix of average off speed pitches, and he’s got 1,336 career MLB innings under his belt. How many teams out there can bring that kind of #4 to the table? That mix of experience, savviness and natural stuff on a cold day on the north side all bodes well for him on the mound.
As for Lackey – I hate to say it, but I think we are going to see some quality pitches from Lackey today. Not saying he will be the buzz saw he was in game 1, but I think he executes a well crafted game plan. Reason is two fold: (1) it’s an elimination game and John Lackey is a downright nasty motherfucker in October. There’s just something about his approach that changes and makes him rather imposing on the mound. Reason #2 is his reliance on late action in his fastball. He’s got a tired arm on three days rest. Sounds good right? Not so fast. Tired arms on sinker ballers are actually good things. You don’t overthrow because you physically can’t. Your arm is actually a little looser and it’s easier to pronate your hand as you release the ball when you’re on short rest. I know that sounds backwards but you just have to trust me on this. All good classic sinker ballers pitch well when tired. Obviously you can’t run a sinker baller out there every other day, but don’t think by any stretch of the imagination that Lackey’s gonna be throwing meatballs out there. I expect him to pound the bottom half of the zone quite a bit with sharp, heavy, sinking/cutting fastballs.
Lineup – ours is already posted. Looks like this.
Like I said, I think Lackey makes some quality pitches, but really I’m just thinking that the Cubs lineup builds off yesterday’s performance and gets rolling early. The cards bullpen is in trouble. You force some pressure on the Cards like we did yesterday and they’ll go to it early because they simply have to in an elimination game. Fortunately for us, we steam rolled their pen yesterday much as we would likely do today.
Soler has yet to record an out this postseason. Schwarber has shown he doesn’t give a fuck how big a moment is, he just wants to grip and rip, while Rizzo and Bryant officially announced their October presence last night with two absolute fucking missiles. I think they take advantage of the opportunity in front of them, in front of this city and fan base, and really team-up today to give John Lackey hell. Again, Lackey will make some good pitches, I just think we’re going to crush them. (Compared to Wacha Wacha’s all you can eat spaghetti and meatball fest last night). Hammel gives us 5 strong innings of 2-3 run ball and we’re golden. He just needs to make it through the lineup twice and then we can turn it over to our bullpen. Ours is fresh. Theirs is not. This game belongs to us.
Cubs 7
Cards 4
@barstoolcarl