Barstool’s Weekend Soccer Guide – The “Wait, IS LESTER LEGIT?” Edition
Sam’s Weekend Soccer Guide
Hi haters,
EARLY MORNING SOCCER BLOG COMING IN HOT! I know, I know, you have all been sitting around watching blowout football games these last couple of days just dying to read a bunch of words about lawn fairy sports – you’re welcome. As for me, after reflecting for a few moments, the things that I am most thankful for this year are…
– Harry Kane
– 364 days until I have to spend another Thanksgiving Day making boring conversation with extended family members
– The handful of you lovely people who click – intentionally or not – on these soccer blogs
– For real though, Harry Kane
But as good as nine goals in six games (in all competitions) is, Sir Harry’s performance this season still pales in comparison to that of Jamie Vardy, who has scored 13 times in 13 domestic games, including goals in 10 straight matching the record set by United’s “Horse-Faced Killer” Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2003.
Which brings us to this week’s theme: LEAGUE LEADING Lester… just who the hell do they think they are and what are they legitimately capable of this season? The truth is I’m fighting a mean turkey hangover (never mind the gallons of Sierra Nevada that my liver is still trying to process), but because I love you I spent some time crunching numbers that may shed some new light on the topic.
Will work for carrots
So without further ado…
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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
A quick reminder of what happened last weekend:
Some news, notes and observations…
– City was nice enough to invite Liverpool into its home. The thanks it got was the pleasure of watching the Reds spank its kids, sleep with its wife, steal all of its fine silverware and kick its dog on the way out the door. Losing 1-4 at home to a club that was averaging one goal per game is just plain embarrassing. That said, another impressive road performance by Der Klopps. Can you imagine how good they will be once Daniel Sturridge is back?
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Trick question. RIP Sturridge.
– Limp, lifeless, impotent. Villa and my penis were separated at birth.
– Chelsea is back baby! Scoring one goal against one of the league’s leakiest defences… soliddddddddddddddddd!
– What is wrong with Swansea? I’m honestly not sure, but manager Garry Monk has gone from hot young coach to a loss or two away from being fired.
– Don’t look now but Tottenham is showing all the signs of being a legitimate contender for a Champions League spot. Dynamic offense that is still improving supported by a deep stable of midfielders and anchored by a rock solid defense. In fact, I’ve seen a lot of credible sources suggesting they might even be in the mix for the league title. As a long time Spurs fan, I’ll admit I am as optimistic about the club’s future as I have ever been, but the moment “Tottenham” and “title contender” appear in the same sentence that means a pitiful performance is inevitable. Keep that in mind.
– Arsenalolololol
– Xerdan Shaqiri and Ibrahim Afellay were supposed to mean a newer, more viewer friendly era at Stoke. Let’s just say it’s still a work in progress, as the club is the king of 1-0 results (wins and losses). There have been 23 goals scored in Stoke games, including 11 goals for and 12 against, which is BY FAR the lowest total in the league. Scrounging enough points (19) to be in 11th place is pretty impressive all things considering.
Going into this weekend, the table looks like this:
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LESTER – LEGIT?
First and foremost, Lester deserves all the credit in the world for being on top of the table one-third of the way through the season. I pegged them as a relegation contender in August, and I was far from alone in thinking that, but Riyad Mahrez has been a revelation and Jamie Vardy is the league’s runaway player of the year so far and the team as a whole has been resilient and fun to watch.
So are they a contender? Well that depends on what they are contending for… to win the league title? Hell no. For a Champions League spot? No chance. For a Europa League spot? Highly, highly unlikely. To finish in the top-half? Yes, they do have a shot at that, which in and of itself is an amazing accomplishment for a club working with resources as limited is Lester’s.
People are going to call me a hater for saying this, but the issue for a club the size of Lester is that it doesn’t have the depth to contend with injuries, and while the club has been rather fortunate so far it’s hard to imagine a scenario where injuries do not eventually starting taking a toll. Secondly, their defense is far too porous for them to stick around the top of the table. The only other club in the top 14 that has conceded 20 goals is West Ham. Lester has made a habit of giving up early goals then clawing its way back. That is not the recipe for long-term success.
Thirdly, I had a sneaking suspicion that Lester’s schedule thus far might have been rather “soft” and – after doing some number crunching – this did indeed turn out to be the case. In fact, by calculating the average place in the EPL table of each club’s 13 opponents, it turns out that the Foxes have played the single weakest schedule of any club in the EPL so far:
[tldr key: higher number = weaker strength of schedule]
But the beauty of the EPL’s balanced schedule means that things will even out, so here’s the kicker: it is officially ‘put up or shut up’ time for Lester starting this weekend against United, which begins a string of downright frightful games (with much needed breathers against Bournemouth and Chelsea).
Ruhhhhh rohhhhhh
The next two months will dictate whether Lester will end up being in the mix for a league title, UCL, UEL, top-half finish… or if they are who I initially predicted they are (the last of these being a serious stretch given how good they’ve looked).
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Okay, deep breath. Now as for the games coming up this weekend, here’s what we got on deck…
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PICKS OF THE WEEK
Lester (+215)
United (+130)
Draw (+240)
What a way for 1st-place Lester to kick off its murderer’s row of games than by hosting 2nd-place United. Some of you might remember when these two clubs faced off in what may have been the game-of-the-season last fall, which the Foxes came from behind to win 5-3. This edition of the Red Devils will make a repeat of that kind of game all but impossible since their defense is far stouter… and their offense is (presently) far less dangerous.
Truth be told, Lester fans should be dying for me to pick United because the Foxes have won almost every time I’ve picked against them this season – and I’m here to give the people what they want. This should be a low-scoring affair, but I think the visitors will be able to lock down on Vardy & Co. The odds on a draw are mighty inviting, and I’d say 49% of my brain wants me to go with that. But I’m going with the other 51%: 2-1 win for United.
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City (-180)
Southampton (+525)
Draw (+320)
City is a difficult team to pin down at the moment. Their last three games have been a 0-0 draw with woeful Aston Villa, the aforementioned 1-4 whupping from Liverpool, and a 0-1 loss at Juventus in the Champions League on Wednesday. The return of David Silva should be a massive boost, but their defense (including goalie Joe Hart) is decimated by injuries right now. Southampton is not exactly an offensive juggernaut but hard to imagine this not turning into a bit of a shootout. The absence of striker Graziano Pelle may prove telling. I’m going 3-2 win for City.
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Tottenham (+150)
Chelsea (+185)
Draw (+245)
I’m more excited about Spurs right now than I have been in years. The team is in great form, relatively healthy, playing at home against a Chelsea side that has consistently underwhelmed so far this season. This can only mean one thing: a horrible performance is in the offing. Chelsea to win 3-1.
Drunk on recent success (back-to-back wins!)
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Other games: Norwich [+460] was tailor-made to get its ass handed to it by a sharp, in-form Arsenal [-165]. The Canaries’ defense is made out of popsicle sticks and chewing gum, which may be sufficient against clubs like Aston Villa but is going to be a big problem this weekend. Arsenal to win 4-1. Speaking of Villa [+170], they have managed only one win and two draws from 13 games. That’s awful, and anybody who puts money on them is an idiot. Villa to win 2-1 over Watford [+180].
Up the Villa!
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BUNDESLIGA
Guys, do you think Eric Wynalda believes he has been blackballed from coaching by the US Soccer community or nah?
Annnnnnnnyway, some solid German games on both Saturday and Sunday this weekend, including Bayern hosting Hertha and Schalke visiting Bayer (respectively)…
…though game of the weekend is Dortmund hosting Stuttgart on Sunday morning, which rumor has it will feature everybody’s favorite Welsh-English Spanish speaking sideline reporter.
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BEST OF THE REST
LA LIGA: 6th-place Eibar welcome 3rd-place Real Madrid on Sunday morning (9am CT on beIN Sports).
SERIE A: Another #1 versus #2 battle as Inter head to upstarts Napoli on Monday afternoon (2pm CT CT on beIN Sports).
MLS: SEMI-FINALS (second leg of home-and-homes)! The first legs last weekend have set up two barn-burners, with both favorites heading back home where they have to make up two-goal deficits.
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So there you have it: the best weekly soccer preview that Barstool will ever publish today. Check ya next week.
Timeless
Holler,
Sam U.L. Army