Barstool’s Midweek Soccer Preview

Barstool Sports2/24/2015 6:20 PM

Sam’s Midweek Soccer Preview

I’m back, bishes!

I somehow survived two weeks of cloudless blue skies, turquoise seas, temperatures in the mid-80s – and little to no live soccer. So it goes without saying that I could not be happier about being back here in my frigid ass apartment getting ready to soak in some of the best jogo bonito on god’s green earth as the top 16 teams in Europe vie to take what is currently Real Madrid’s: the Champions League trophy.

Oh, and yeah, we’ve got another slate of Spursday afternoon soccer on deck as well, which the UEFA gods – in their infinite wisdom – did everyone the favor of making less inconsequential this year by, for the first time ever, awarding this year’s Europa Cup winner a slot in next year’s Champions League (and the Kardashan-esque buttloads of additional revenue that comes along with it).

Congrats, Sevilla, you won a ticket to… not a god damn thang!

Lots of games to discuss so let’s get to it…

Oh, right. Li’l something for the picture-readers.

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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

As mentioned in last week’s (abbreviated) post, the next few months will play host to some of the most high-quality soccer you could ever hope to see. Sure, there will be some stinkers, particularly in the initial legs of the home-and-home series when clubs – especially defensive-minded and/or underdog road teams – will inevitably come out with conservative game plans to make sure they don’t get run off the park a la Bayer Leverkusen (which lost 4-0 to PSG) or Schalke (which lost 6-1 to Real Madrid) at this very stage in last season’s competition.

Ew ma gawwwwwd

The results from the first half of the Round of 16 first legs played last week, as well as the second four-game slate on deck today and tomorrow look like this:

A few news, notes and observations:

– Nice to see the Black Cats finally making an impact on the Champions League as Sunderland Syndrome hit and hit hard last week with three of the four games finishing all square, though Chelski and Porto did manage to pick up what could turn out to be an all-important road goal.

– It’s not often a team (playing at home no less) musters only 0.2% of the possession yet manages to hang on for a draw, but credit to Shakhtar for getting battered about the face for an hour and a half without conceding once. That result means one freak goal would force Bayern to net a minimum of two to progress, which is far from unlikely but then again…

As for this week’s games, roughly 97% of the media coverage has been focusing on… drumroll please… CITY vs BARÇA (!!!), which represents something akin to a #1-seed and a #2-seed matching up in the first round of the NCAA tournament – one of the best and worst things about the Champions League’s random draw structure. So let’s get to it.

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PICKS OF THE (MID)WEEK

City (+235)
Barça (+110)
Draw (+260)

After some recent bobbles by fellow #1-seeds Bayern (11/4 to win tourney), Real (11/4) and Chelsea (11/2), and given Barça’s (5/1) propensity for bringing their A-game when it matters most, a legitimate argument could be made that they are the favorite to take the cup away from their prettier, more regal Spanish rivals. City, on the other hand, has had a lot of ups and downs this season, including a recent ass-whooping at the hands of Arsenal and even more humiliating draw with relegation contender Hull City – both at the Etihad, which is precisely where the Sky Blues will now entertain a 5’6½”, 148 lbs living god and his 10 munchkin-like soccer savants… or at least eight plus Gerrard Pique and (GK) Marc-André ter Stegen.

Warning: watching may cause feels in your underoos

So what can we expect in this matchup? Let’s just say the word for the day will like be “caginess” as both teams poke and prod looking for an opening – but not too aggressively lest they leave their own underbelly exposed. If you are thinking about going balls deep on this game you’d be well advised to wait to see if what arrangement Manuel Pellegrini goes with as, despite their recent 4-1 and 5-0 annihilations of Stoke and Newcastle – it wouldn’t surprise me if City started with only Sergio Agüero up top and Wilfried Bony and Edin Dzeko on the bench, a telling indication that the club’s strategy will be to contain the Catalans at the home in the hopes of nicking the series on the road.

As such, and despite my hope that the game proves to be an entertaining, open affair, I think it more likely that City will (try to) suck most of the joy out of the game and settle for a 1-1 draw. (Note: if we’re being completely honest, I thought about going so far as to suggest a 0-0 draw – in part because that would assure a 4-4 barn-burner – but mostly because my optimistic nature wouldn’t allow that sort of cynicism.)

Beauty iz in zee eye of zee beholder

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Arsenal (-200)
Monaco (+600)
Draw (+310)

This game smells like one that could potentially get away from Monaco if the visitors aren’t careful. The French side started the season slow but picked up the pace a bit in December before some recent stumbles against some middling domestic foes. Arsenal on the other hand – my primitive hatred aside – is a club that is coming together at the right time and looks be poised for an impressive last few months of the season.

One thing going for Monaco is its stout defense, which has given up the fewest goals in Ligue 1 (only 19 in 25 games putting it on par with Lyon), but by that same token they are only scoring roughly 1 goal/game – roughly on pace with the likes of a Hull City or Burnley. Not a particularly good look. Plus they have been bit by the injury bug recently. With the likes of Lexi Sanchez, Mehsut Ozil and Olivier Giroud fine form (and, more importantly, healthy), the Gunners strike me as too dangerous for this particular contingent of frogs. Arsenal to win 2-0.

Imagine how many times she’s asked “Is it in yet?” … so sad.

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Bonus picks: #PrayForBayer… inexplicable 2-0 loss at Celta Vigo aside, Atleti (+145) has looked like the second best club in La Liga for the last month or two while zee Germans, ummmmm, not so much (including one win in its last five). Bayer (+200) is at home, which ain’t nothing and likely explains the surprisingly tight line, but I still think Diego Simeone & Co. pull this one out, albeit in a closely fought affair. Atleti to win 3-2. The last game – Juventus (even) hosting Dortmund (+285) – is one of the more interesting fixtures of the entire round and, because honesty is the best policy, I’ll admit I have no idea which BVB squad is going to show up on Tuesday, and have little to no confidence in offering much of a prediction other than Sam’s mortal lock of the century that Jurgen Klopp will spend 90 minutes running the gamut of emotions from…

manic…

to depressed…

to constipated…

to looking for a ball-boy to disembowel

For those of you just dying for me to make a pick that you can pillory me about later, fine, the best I can do is say that Dortmund strikes me as the kind of all hustle, all pressure team that could end up being a rather poor matchup for the likes of Juventus, so my low-confidence inclination is to take zee Germans and points if they are on offer from your friendly neighborhood oddsmaker.

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EUROPA LEAGUE

But enough about soccer’s NCAA tournament, who’s excited for some NIT action? I know, right? Iona versus Florida Atlantic = boner city. Below are the results from all 16 of last week’s first legs of Europa League’s first knockout round.

As you can tell from the massive list of matchups, there is a shit-ton of work left to be done to get from the current slate of 32 clubs down to “The Special One”…

“The Special One” just before The Special One

A few news, notes and observations:

– Most of the ties are still fully up for grabs, though several clubs – including Napoli, the EPL’s resident schizophrenic (Everton) and Club Brugge – have all but punched their ticket to the quarterfinals after racking up multi-goal wins on the road.

– Yeah, sure, I’m most interested in Tottenham vs Fiorentina for obvious reasons but anybody who watched the ridiculous first leg of Celtic vs Inter will have a serious sports erection going into this week’s second leg. (And that has nothing to do with my previously acknowledged affinity for the Bhoys.)

Hi.

– Speaking of Spurs, they and Liverpool both have tricky games on their hands after a 1-1 draw and 1-0 win, respectively, in the first legs at home.

Because this is the European soccer’s tournament for underachieving rich teams and overachieving poor ones, it’s probably not worth giving it the same amount of attention as the Champions League – not yet anyway. I will note though that IF a team like, oh, I don’t know, let’s say Tottenham is going to lose, doing so now rather than four rounds (and eight games) later could end up being the best thing for their performance domestically. In fact, without the slot in next year’s UCL on the line there used to be a valid argument to be made that bowing out now was the smart move. Just ask ol’ Twitchy Face McGee…

Prefers anal fissures to Europa matches

General Predictions

– All three English sides make it through (assuming Pochettino decides to, you know, actually let Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen play for once).

– I suspect that Borussia Monchengladbach will turn the tables on Sevilla, while Dynamo Kiev (which is most definitely NOT playing for Mother Russia) does the same on French side Guingamp.

– Roma experiences a flashback to a time when they knew how to play soccer, and handles host Feyenoord.

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So there we have it. I know what you’re thinking and, yes, it warms the cockles of my heart to know just how much you all have missed me (slash had yet to realize I was gone) and – like your deadbeat soccer-loving dad who accidentally got twice-a-week visitation privileges in the divorce – I’ll be back to bother you again with yet another fully researched weekend preview post designed to expand your minds and wallets (and take you to Wendy’s) on Friday afternoon. Until then, try not to miss me too much.

One for the road