A Rebuttal To Grantland's "The End Of The Blackhawks" Article
(source)–It was the realization that had the Ducks eliminated Chicago on Wednesday, they would be finishing off the Hawks for years to come. Finishing off the team that has spent the past seven years winning two Cups, going to five conference finals, and generally being just about the closest thing the league has seen to a dynasty in the salary-cap era.
Those Blackhawks are a brilliantly constructed team, but their pending cap crunch has been an inescapable subplot to their postseason. The question, never quite front and center but always just under the surface, has followed them all spring: Is this finally their last run? Last night, with the team facing elimination for the first time this year, everything that happened carried the weighty possibility that we were seeing something special for the last time.
It feels like every game and every day I get tweets about how the Blackhawks are going to have to trade this guy or that guy. The core is breaking up. The dynasty is over, blah blah blah. I had put a moratorium on all 2015-16 Blackhawks roster talk until after this season was over. I’d rather just enjoy this season and this group. Not sure why everyone is in such a rush to get to the future when it’s a pretty good time right now. With this latest piece about the demise of the Blackhawks I finally feel compelled to address the Hawks’ impending summer cap crunch….it’s not going to be that bad.
As it stands right now the Blackhawks have $63,295,127 committed to 13 players for 2015-16. With the Salary Cap projected to be $71M and the Hawks still needing new deals for Saad and Kruger the Blackhawks will obviously need to do some wiggling.
Re-signing Brandon Saad
Let’s do a little comparison here
“Player A’s” RFA season: GP-82, Goals-23, Assists-29 Points-52
“Player B’s” RFA season: GP-82 Goals-33, Assists-30 Points-63
Player B was drafted in 2010 and had played 3 full NHL seasons. Player A was drafted in 2011 and has played 3 full NHL seasons. Player B signed a 2 year “bridge” extension prior to the 2014-15 season for a cap hit of $4M. Player B is Ryan Johansen of the Columbus Blue Jackets. One of the brightest young stars in the NHL. A physical two-way center. Obviously Brandon Saad is Player A. Saad has been a more consistent player during his time in the league and Johansen maybe needed to “prove it”, by having more than one great year so it’s not exactly apples to apples. However, I think every GM in the league would take Johansen over Saad. He’s a center. He has a higher ceiling, etc. Point is I think you can look for a similar type deal for Brandon Saad. A 2 year bridge deal in the $4-5M range and then he cashes in bigger down the road. Very common practice for RFAs. How does that sound, Brandon?
Advertisement
Re-signing Marcus Kruger
Kruger is a little tougher to project. He carried a cap hit of $1.35M this year. He’s never had more than 28 points in a season and this year he had only 17 points. Kruger’s value doesn’t lie in his offense though. He’s a faceoff, pk, defensive specialist. Full disclosure…I am kind of throwing darts here. I don’t think anyone will blow Kruger’s doors off with a crazy offer sheet when he’s never produced, but I am willing to say the Blackhawks will at least double his salary. So I’m saying Kruger gets a 4 year deal with an AAV of 2.8M
See Chief! Now the Blackhawks have to trade everyone.
Yeah, this is where it gets tricky. The Blackhawks, in this scenario, are now at or slightly over the Cap and only have 15 players signed. Who should they trade? The first 2 are somewhat obvious.
Bryan Bickell
Bickell signed a 4 year $16M extension just days after a MONSTER playoff run that helped the Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup in 2013. He followed up on that performance by reverting back to the guy we are used to seeing during the regular season and only had 11 goals in 2013-14 and 14 goals in 2014-15. Bickell had another great playoff performance last year, but has not been able to score so far in the 2015 playoffs. Even if he was scoring, a guy who turns it on for 2 months a year is a luxury the Hawks can no longer afford. He’s gone. Subtract $4M
Kris Versteeg
This is probably a deal that Stan wishes he could have back. Jimmy Hayes has turned into a nice power forward down in Florida and Versteeg is a healthy scratch now and was often injured during the season. It just hasn’t worked out. They won’t get anything of value for him, but they should be able to get out from under his $2.2M cap hit.
Trade One Big Ticket Guy: Sharp or Crawford
This is the toughest decision the Hawks will have to make. They need to trade a big price tag guy to make all of this work and the only two options are Sharp and Crawford. Sharp is signed through 2017 with a cap hit of $5.9. Crawford is signed through 2020 with a cap hit of $6M.
Trading Sharp: Signed through 2017 with a cap hit of $5.9M. He’s 33 years old and had a bad year offensively by his standards. He also had injuries cost him time in two of the past three years. The Blackhawks theoretically would still have plenty of offense with Toews, Saad, Hossa, Kane, and Teravainen on the roster. They also have a top KHL player, Artie Panarin, coming over.
Trading Crawford: Signed through 2020 with a cap hit of $6M. Crawford had his best regular season of his career and made his first all-star team. He’s won a Cup and goalie is the most important position. Organizational depth at goaltender has always been an issue for the Blackhawks. Do the Hawks feel comfortable going with Darling and Raanta? Crawford is 30 years old. I think by all accounts Crawford is a slightly above-average goalie who carries a premium price tag. Crow makes more than Quick, the same as Ryan Miller, and only slightly less than Carey Price.
My answer: You trade Corey Crawford. All things considered, its been a good run for Crow, but I believe that Darling is the more talented goalie. Crawford already being on the wrong side of 30 and carrying a cap hit of $6M is concerning. The biggest thing for me though is the term and how it relates to Saad. If the Hawks can get Saad to sign that bridge deal I described above he can get a big pay day when Sharp’s money comes off the books in 2017. Trading Sharp is probably the safer move, but I think moving Crawford is the right move.
Roster Reset:
This is going to be a bare bones, rookie laden roster to start.
Saad($5M) Toews($10.5M) Hossa($5.275M)
Sharp($5.9M) Teravainen($894,166) Kane($10.5M)
Panarin($812,500) Shaw($2.0M) Hartman($863,333)
Ross($636,666) Kruger ($2.8M) Baun($858,750)
Keith($5.538M) Seabrook($5.8M)
Hjalmarsson($4.1M) TVR($925,000)
Johns($800,000) Pokka/Paliotta($925,000)
Darling($587,500) Raanta($750,000)
If my calculator’s math is correct. That brings the Blackhawks total to $65,465,915. Meaning the Blackhawks would have $5,534,085 to spend on a few cheaper veterans looking for another run at a Cup a la Brad Richards this year. Obviously the Hawks won’t have 7 rookies on their opening night roster, but they will likely have four. It takes a certain leap of faith to believe that Panarin, Hartman/Ross, Johns, and TVR will all be ready to contribute at an NHL level, but the Hawks have earned that faith. Stan, hockey ops, the coaching staff, and the leadership core have done a tremendous job of developing home-grown talent. There’s a narrative in town that Coach Q hates young players. That’s not true. Toews, Kane, Saad, Kruger, Hjalmarsson, Shaw, Leddy, Teravainen, Ben Smith, etc all developed under Coach Q. Next year will be time for another wave of young talent. There will be growing pains, but there’s also a chance that the defense will be deeper and Panarin/Hartman give you more than Bickell/Versteeg.
Advertisement
Oh shit, Stan did it again.
Yes, the Blackhawks will look a little different next year, but the tales of their demise are greatly exaggerated. This team isn’t going anywhere. May the dynasty reign for a 1000 years. Viva La Hawks.