The Red Sox Will Put In A Bid For Pablo Sandoval But Should We Really Want Them To Get Him?
SOURCE – The Kung Fu Panda courtship is about to begin. The Boston Red Sox already have made contact with third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s representatives, a major league source told The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo. The sides reportedly plan to meet face-to-face at next week’s general managers meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz. Joon Lee of the Over the Monster Red Sox blog, citing a source, reported Wednesday that the Red Sox had reached out to Sandoval’s reps. It’s unclear at this point how interested the Red Sox are in Sandoval’s services, but the 28-year-old certainly makes sense for Boston.
Panda has been a popular guy around these parts of late. We all watched him tear it up yet again in the biennial Giants title run, he’s a free agent, and we’ve got a hole to plug at third base. On the surface, it’s easy to say that the Sox should put whatever amount of money it takes to get him here in a suitcase and fly it to the GM meetings next week in Scottsdale. But let’s not just jump on the Pablo Sandoval train like he’s a cure-all for this roster.
It’s true that he’s a very good player. His career slash line of .294/.346/.465 certainly says so, and he’s surprisingly nimble in the field for someone with his size and, um, body composition. Not to mention he loves the bright lights and sees his postseason performance jump to an elite level at .344/.389/.465 to go along with the World Series MVP in his trophy case.
He would also fill not one, but two needs the Sox are looking to meet in the offseason: a body at third and left-handed bat at the plate. Between Middlebrooks’ performance the last two years, his refusal to play in Arizona this fall, and the exile of Jenny Dell, the writing is on the wall: he’s as good as done in Boston. We just can’t have third base continue to be a black hole. The fact that Sandoval is a switch hitter only adds to the appeal as Papi can’t continue to be the only guy in the lineup who steps into the lefty batter’s box.
It’s certainly easy to slip into thinking that the Panda is a no-brainer for Cherington, but there are other factors at play.
The thinking has been that Sandoval would want a 5-year deal in the range of $100 million. That’s big. Now reports are that he’s looking for 6 years. That’s bigger. The Sox certainly seemed to be in love with their new found “overpay on short contracts” philosophy when they tried to get Lester to sign a bullshit 4-year deal; I don’t love that philosophy, but even I would be worried about locking up Sandoval until he’s 34 at that kind of money.
But 34 isn’t that old these days, right? Eh. It’s still pretty old for a fat guy. Sandoval has worked hard and got in better shape and all that jazz, but he’s still a big dude. He’s a big dude while 27 and playing in a contract year for $8.25 million. I’m a little apprehensive about giving that guy $20 million when he’s 33 knowing there’s a solid 25% chance he looks like Bartolo Colon by then.
Even if you can get past the big money and the big appetite, there’s still the most important factor: performance. I gave a rundown of the career and postseason numbers near the start of this blog: good in the regular season, great in the postseason. But he’s trending down. The last four seasons he’s gone from a 155 OPS+ (park-adjusted on-base plus slugging, 100 is average) to 123 to 116 to 111. I don’t think it will continue to plummet. 155 seems like an aberration and I expect him to settle into the 110 to 125 range from the last three seasons. Those three seasons have resulted in a slash of .280/.335/.424 while averaging 26 doubles, 14 homers, and (somehow) 2 triples.
I struggle with the idea of giving a .760 OPS, 42 extra-base hit guy $20 million a year when he could eat his way out of baseball any given offseason. However, I also believe in clutch and the idea that some guys just love to play under the bright lights. If you’re a team that’s missing that one piece, I think Sandoval is a great signing; keep him motivated, get to the dance, and watch him do his thing for at least the next few years while realizing his contract could be a burden towards the end. The problem is I’m not convinced the Sox can get all the pieces they’ll need to make a real run in the next couple of years. Personally, that means I would pass, but if the Sox do seriously go after him take that as a sign they expect to compete for another title sooner rather than later.
PS: I’m not saying I thought they should have kept Beltre after his one season here back in 2010 because I didn’t, but how great would it have been if they did? Dude has gone .315/.364/.530 with 33 doubles and 29 homers a year with Texas en route to becoming a pretty sure fire Hall of Famer. And before you say that he’s not, let me just point you to the career WAR list where he ranks 45th and the three guys above him are named Pete Rose, Brooks Robinson and Joe Dimaggio, and the three guys below him are named Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith and Paul Molitor. But, yeah, maybe this fat guy will let the Sox pay him $120 million for the next 6 years.