Making Sense Of The Celtics First Half Of The Season Through Nothing But Cold Hard Facts
The first 41 games of the Celtics season have been a roller coaster to say the least. At times they look like dogshit, others they look unbeatable. Sometimes they lose to bad teams and all looks lost, then they start beating everybody only to lose to the elite teams. It’s safe to say the 2016-17 team is very, very different from last year’s group. In an attempt to figure out what the hell we’re watching I am going to present you with 41 stone cold 100% facts to try and help us get to the bottom of this team. There is nothing subjective about what you are about to read Let’s go!
1. Let’s start with the obvious. The Celtics are 26-15, on a 52 win pace and currently are the 3 seed. At the time of writing this blog they remain 2 games behind the 2 seed, and 3.5 games behind CLE for the number 1 seed in the East.
2. Jae Crowder is second on the team in Catch & Shoot (wide open with no dribbles) attempts per game (4.9) and shoots a starter best 42% in such situations.
3. Currently there are three Celtics who are having career shooting years. Both Jae Crowder (42%) and Avery Bradley (40%) are shooting the three better than ever before, and Isaiah Thomas has a career high 46% from the field so far this season.
4. Amir Johnson’s rebounding rate is a pathetic 12.4% this season, which is the second lowest of his career only to be outdone by his rookie year. This ranks him 45th among active centers.
5. Isaiah Thomas leads the league in points per drive at 9.6, while shooting 50% in such situations.
6. The Celtics have kept a team to under 100 points just 8 times in their first 41 games. That means for 80% of their season so far, a team has hit triple digits.
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7. The Celtics are 0-10 against CLE/TOR/GS/SA/HOU/OKC
8. Marcus Smart is twice as good a shooter if you just put him in the post. I’m not kidding. On catch and shoot or pullups he shoots 32% and 31%. Get him into the paint and into the post, and those averages jump to 57% and 61%.
9. Avery Bradley ranks 8th in the NBA in total distance traveled while on the court at 2.48 miles.
10. Isaiah Thomas’s 28.4 points per game tie him for third in the league in scoring. He currently averages 88.7 touches a game which is good for 5th in the league.
11. Through the first month the Celtics were 10-8 and were giving up 104.3 points per game. They’ve gone 16-7 since, while currently giving up 104.5 points per game.
12. Isaiah Thomas ranks 3rd in the NBA in pullup threes made per game at 1.4. He shoots 38% on those shots, and of players who make that many, that puts him in company with Kemba Walker and Chris Paul.
13. The Celtics have made, and attempted, more three point field goals than the Golden State Warriors.
14. At the same time, the Celtics are the only team in the Top 5 of 3PM that ranks outside the Top 15 in FTA. They rank 25th as a team.
15. Walter is 22-11 on the season and is showing no signs of slowing down.
16. Al Horford’s 25% assist percentage is by far the best of his career and puts him 6th in the league among centers.
17. Isaiah Thomas is the only player in the NBA with a PER over 26, a usage rate over 32, and a turnover% under 8.
18. Through their first 10 home games the Celtics were 5-5. They’ve gone 8-1 since.
19. Of the teams with a Top 10 offensive rating, the Celtics rank the lowest in defensive rating (20th).
20. Despite popular belief, Al Horford’s worst quarter is actually the second quarter, not fourth. In the second he has shooting splits of 40/27% while taking almost the identical amount of attempts as in the fourth.
21. Having said that, he struggles under 3 min in a quarter shooting 40/28% in such situations.
22. This season Jae Crowder is driving to the basket on average 0.9 times per game. Last year he did this at a rate of 2.2 times per game.
23. The Celtics lead the league in fourth quarter scoring at 29.2, and shoot a respectable 47% in the quarter. They also lead the league in fewest TOs in this quarter, with just 2.5 per game.
24. As good as they are in the fourth, that’s how bad they are in the second quarter. They rank 29th in second quarter scoring, 24 points on 42% shooting.
25. Of Al Horford’s 235 made baskets so far this season, 51 of them have been assisted by Isaiah Thomas. The next closest Celtic is Marcus Smart at 23.
26. Believe it or not, but Isaiah Thomas does not rank in the Top 10 in P&R possessions, just 8.8 per game. That being said, he scores on 45.7% of these situations, which is better than guys like Harden, Westbrook, Irving, Lebron, and Conley just to name a few.
27. The Celtics are 15-6 when Kelly Olynyk wears the man bun.
28. They are also 13-4 when Brad wears a tie.
29. Where the Celtics offense really flourishes is on handoffs. Isaiah ranks 3rd in the league in points by handoffs at 2.7, and only CJ McCollum and Zach Lavine have been better at it this season.
30. What makes the Celtics unique is Avery Bradley is right behind at 2.2. This ties them with POR as the only team with two players in the Top 6 in this area.
31. Currently 3rd in the NBA in assists per game at 25, the Celtics are the only team in the NBA with an assist number greater than 24 who also has a turnover per game number fewer than 13.
32. Opponents are making 9.3 threes per game against the Celtics, shooting on 34% on average. Last year, teams made 7.8 and shot 33%.
33. The Celtics often close with a lineup of Isaiah/Marcus/Avery/Jae/Horford. This lineup is currently -13. The IT and D lineup has not been great.
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34. The more you ask Al Horford to dribble, the worse he shoots. He is at his best either taking zero dribbles (47%) or two dribbles (48%). Ask him to take between 3-6 and his shooting drops to 36%.
35. Kelly Olynyk is shooting 73% this season on corner threes.
36. The Celtics have a negative rating with Isaiah Thomas on the court in the fourth quarter.
37. On the defensive side, the Celtics are deflecting 15.6 passes per game, good for 16th in the NBA. While that seems lazy, they are also 2nd in the league in recovered loose balls, and 2nd in charges drawn.
38. Teams are shooting a stellar 37% on threes when a Celtics defender is playing tight (2-4ft away). This is the highest in the league and a drastic difference from last year’s 29%.
39. The Celtics are the best team in the NBA during clutch situations (5 pts or less with 5 min remaining) with a 19-10 record. Memphis who they beat twice is the next closest with 17 wins.
40. A lot was made about Jae’s drop in defense. This season players have shooting splits of 44/34%. Last year players shot 44/33%.
41. And finally, most importantly, the Celtics 14-5 with their Top 7 available. When you break it down you see they are 20-7 with Thomas and Horford in lineup, and 16-6 with Isaiah, Al and Bradley. Basically when healthy, they are who we thought they’d be.
So what can we take away from the first half? Well, first the defense has gotten no better since the part of the season we consider “bad”, so that’s an issue. Isaiah has been one of the best players in the league, and we have some idea of how to use our players in a position they can be successful. Get Jae some open looks, put Marcus in the paint, don’t have Horford dribble and tell Kelly to go to the corner. We know that they are good, but certainly not good enough when compared to the teams that are where the Celtics want to be. The good news is they are showing signs of turning the corner and when healthy aren’t half bad.
A move here or there at the deadline and then who knows? Also don’t forget, Brad’s teams tend to get better as the year goes on.