Finals Preview: Get Your Popcorn Ready
When the Warriors lost Game 4 in OKC to go down 3-1 in the series, I wrote that they were in all sorts of trouble. And they were. Facing a team riding high on momentum, with two of the NBA’s top players, they certainly were climbing an uphill battle. Not since these beautiful bastards had someone come back from 3-1 in a Conference Finals
How the Warriors were able to pull off this feat obviously is because they are a team full of basketball aliens, but also because they got back to what made them successful for the entire year. Look at each one of their losses and you see a common trend. In games in which they turned the ball over uncharacteristically, and had trouble making threes, they had no shot. Part of the deal with the Warriors is you live and die with their shot selection. Most times it works out, but when it doesn’t, especially against an athletic team like OKC, they get in trouble. Game 1 had 14 TOs and 10-31 from three, Game 3 had 13 TO and 10-32 from three, and Game 4 finished 21 TO and 9-30 from three. That is not the brand of basketball GS is known for.
To me, and basically everyone else on the planet, this series officially shifted in Game 6. During the regular season the Warriors gave up 104ppg. Just once in the previous 5 games did GS hold OKC to that number. For them to claw back into the series, it started on the defensive end. The defense the Warriors played to close out this series is why they are who they are. Game 6 – 101 points, Game 7 – 88 points. They did it by doing a great job of forcing the ball into Dion Waiters hands more than I think OKC would have liked, were great on switches, and did a solid job preventing Durant/Westbrook from getting into the paint in crunch time. This caused OKC to panic a little, revert back to iso ball, and it ultimately cost them the series. If you watch how fluid their offense was earlier in the series, compared to how it was at the end, it was like watching two different teams.
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Offensively, you knew it was just a matter of time before the Warriors all lined up and bukkaked threes from absolutely everywhere. Klay Thompson gave them life in Game 6, but as a team they went 21-45, and Game 7 they backed it up going 17-37. When a team has the shooting ability like this, obviously no lead is safe, and there is something to be said about how demoralizing each one of those threes was. OKC up 13? In a blink of an eye GS hits three bombs in a row and all the sudden it’s a ballgame. Part of the reason they were able to pull off this comeback was how much better Steph Curry played once Steven Adams switched on him off the P&R. Adams had done a good job earlier in the series staying with Curry the best any mere mortal could, and Curry had problems with his patented between the legs/behind the back move into his pullup jumper. Well, Monday, it was as if Curry figured something out in regards to how OKC was switching because it didn’t matter who it was, whether it was Adams or Durant, Curry’s ability to knock this shot down late in the series, as opposed to struggling early, was gigantic.
Also, quickly, before we dive into the Finals preview, quick note on OKC’s future in my opinion. I know on Twitter I joke about the Durant Sweepstakes being back on, but it’s mostly just that, a joke. It simply makes NO sense for Durant to leave OKC this summer. This series, as crushing as it was, has absolutely ZERO impact for one reason. Why would he leave while Westbrook still has a year left on his deal? I’ve always felt that 2017 was the summer it’s even remotely possible he leaves in general (even slimmer chance he comes to BOS), so here is what I expect to happen. Durant is going to sign the same sort of deal as Lebron, maybe a 3 year max, with player options for year 2 and 3. Either way he is opting out to get that new CBA money, and of the two something tells me Westbrook is the one who is more likely to leave, which means Durant will be most likely looking for a new home in 2017. Now remember, because of the Bird rule OKC can give Durant the most years/money, so if Durant is going anywhere, it’s going to be through a sign and trade. That is probably the ONLY reason the Celtics remain in the conversation, even if it’s the slimmest of slim chances.
Now, The Finals.
It’s hard to know how this series will shake out, but one thing is certain. You can almost throw out everything you saw from last years Finals. The Cavs are obviously a completely different team this time around, as they are now at full strength, and don’t discount the emotional and mental fatigue the Warriors might have after this OKC series. I think as basketball fans, this is the matchup that has all of us salivating because we are about to see some fantastic basketball. Here are a couple of thoughts for each team as we head into Game 1
Cleveland
– Once my beloved Celtics were eliminated, the Cavs really didn’t have any competition in any of their three rounds. Some could argue this helped keep them fresh for the Finals, which I on some level agree with, but it wouldn’t completely shock me to see them have a tough time out of the gate in this series. This isn’t something that will plague them all series obviously, but I do think it matters on some level.
– JR Smith vs Klay Thompson is a matchup to keep an eye on, and I don’t see how JR comes out of that one on top. JR Smith is a lot of things, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard him regarded as a plus defender. We saw in Game 6, that Thompson doesn’t even need to be open to be effective, at times can go on a run where he makes like 4 in a row all of which would be considered poor shots. He’s been arguably the best Warrior this postseason, and I just don’t see how Smith stays with him.
– I think CLE watched this OKC series and saw what we all saw. Russell Westbrook made Curry work. You don’t have many options when it comes to slowing Steph Curry down, but having an aggressive athletic PG certainly helps. Irving is similar to Westbrook in that he is a score first PG, and while he isn’t the passer/rebounder that Westbrook is, he is certainly a better shooter (especially this playoffs where he’s over 50%)
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– This is a big series for Tristan Thompson. One thing OKC showed was that GS can be manhandled on the offensive glass. That’s basically why the Cavs gave him $80M. He’ll probably be the big when GS goes to the death lineup, so he should be able to have success there
– Will Kevin Love play a 4th quarter this entire Finals?
– Lebron needs to be Lebron obviously. In last year’s Finals the Warriors had the approach of “let Lebron get his, stop everyone else”. This was easy because of who the Cavs were missing, and Lebron put up 35/13/9 in the series loss. Ridiculous numbers yes, but he had a really hard time shooting the ball 39%/31% splits. Now that he has legit options on the perimeter, I bet we see him take his man to the post on a consistent basis. When you look at how he attacked GS last year
I predict a heathy diet of post ups on the right block this time around, mostly because Love shoots 44% from the right corner (39.5% from the left).
Golden State
– The way CLE has been shooting from deep this postseason, they’ve sort of been a GS-Lite. How Golden State defends the perimeter will be key. If they can for the most part contain CLE from deep, I think they live with trading 2s for 3s. Aside from Thompson, and when Lebron goes to the block, CLE doesn’t really have an inside presence, so if you can take away their long distance shooting, you force the Cavs to play a style they haven’t really played all postseason.
– Draymond Green had a tough WCF, but I think things get easier for him in The Finals. Kevin Love is supposed to stay with him? This may be the biggest mismatch of the entire series IMO. Not only is Love slow and white, but Green is going to mentally eat him for lunch. T+Ps for Love’s brain.
– Wouldn’t shock me if Kerr switches things up from the start and starts Iggy over Barnes. Obviously Iggy had great success in last years Finals, and it isn’t as if Barnes has been lighting the world on fire this postseason. Iggy is a better fit against CLE simply because he’s a better defender and passer than Barnes is, and if you look at the WCF, Durant had legit problems against him, and then feasted when Barnes was on him. Something tells me that doesn’t go unnoticed.
– Just like against OKC, if GS limits their turnovers, and continues to shoot like they have all year, they’ll be in a good spot.
– I’m no expert, but something tells me we are going to get about 10,000 high pick and rolls with Curry in this series. Unless CLE puts Lebron on him (which they probably will at some point), there is no chance Love/Mozgov/Thompson is staying with him in the P&R. None.
– Don’t let CLE set the pace. As athletic as the Cavs are, they played at a 93.3 pace, which was 28th in the entire league. They want to slow you down in the half court, and limit possessions. Well, GS was 2nd in the league in pace at 99.3. Something will have to give. Not that GS can’t beat you in the half court, but there is something to be said about making a team run, that isn’t used to running.
So those are just some initial thoughts as we prepare for Thursday night, and the series should be everything we think it will be. My official prediction?
Warriors in 7