9 Reasons Why the Loss of Hernandez Doesn't Mean the Patriots are Totally Screwed
Aaron Hernandez was good. At times, uncoverable. When he was on… and healthy, which wasn’t all the time… he was a matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators. At 6-2, 250, he could be too big for corners. But too fast and too good a route runner for safeties and linebackers. Your average 4th round tight end barely ever sees the field, so to get the kind of production they got out of him for 3 seasons was turning straw into gold.
But is there really any reason to panic because he’s gone for good? (Besides the very real threat that he might bust out of the Bristol County HofC and come for revenge on bloggers who made fun of him the whole time he was locked up, Max Cady style?) I mean, I grant you this is an unprecedentedly fucked up situation, but would people be saying the 2013 Patriots are screwed if, say, Hernandez tore an ACL instead of becoming a serial killer? If they were, they’d be wrong. Just like they’re wrong for saying it now. The loss of a talented TE is a loss. No question. But there’s no reason it has to make us abandon all hope and spend the Fall watching soccer on ESPN Deportes, or going antiquing and apple picking with our wives. Here are 9 reasons why:
9) Hernandez was not as productive as you think.
He was a matchup problem like I said and could be good for occasional flashes of brilliance. But would it mean anything to you if I told you that for his career he averaged 4.6 receptions per game and 51.47 yards per game? To put that in perspective, that’s the same number of catches and over 5 YPG LESS than they got out of Brandon Lloyd. Right before they cut him. And “Stop, Drop & Roll” Lloyd averaged 12.1 yards per catch to AHern’s 9.5.
8) The 2012 Patriots didn’t miss Hernandez when he was gone.
He was injured in Game 1 last year and missed the next 4 games. He came back for Weeks 6 and 7, then missed the next 3.
In the 9 games he played they went 9-2 and averaged 31.7 PPG.
In the 7 games he missed, they went 5-2 and averaged 38.8 PPG.
You can argue there’s no cause & effect there, and you’d probably be right. But they scored a TD per game more without him. That’s fact, not opinion.
7) You don’t need an “elite” pass catcher to win.
In the history of the NFL, 109 receivers and tight ends have caught 100+ balls in a season. Of those, exactly THREE won the Super Bowl that year: Jerry Rice (1994), Michael Irvin (1995), and Troy Brown (2001). And all three of them played on teams with top-of-the-league defenses. Last year 6 guys had 100 catches, but Baltimore won the Super Bowl in a year where Torrey Smith lead the team with 65.
6) “Elite” pass catchers don’t necessarily lead to wins.
This is the corollary of that last point. Last year, Calvin Johnson had arguably the best season at his position in league history. The Lions went 4-12. Larry Fitzgerald is arguably not only the most athletic wideout in the league, he’s almost impossible to cover, even with a double team. The Cardinals then paired him with a 1st Rounder in Michael Floyd to make it even harder on defenses and free Fitzgerald up. They not only finished 5-11, they had the 28th-ranked passing offense in the league.
5) Receiver (which is basically what AHern played here) is the most overrated, over-valued position in football, if not in all of sports.
My pals at Cold, Hard Football Facts have done exhaustive research in the field and developed what they call “The Shiny Hood Ornament Law.” It simply states… proves… that quarterbacks make passing offenses, not the guys they throw to. To prove the point: Do you know which team has invested the most in terms of draft picks and high draft picks on pass catchers over the last 10 years? That unstoppable aerial armada, the Tennessee Titans. If you can’t accept the data, you’re either confusing the NFL with your Fantasy league or your name is Matt Millen.
4) The Patriots most successful teams lacked big name receiver talent.
Patriots wide receivers and tight ends with rings: Troy Brown, David Patten, Bert Emmanuel, Charles Johnson, Jermaine Wiggen, Rod Rutledge, Deion Branch, Ben Watson, David Givens, Daniel Graham, Bethel Johnson, Christian Fauria, Jed Weaver
Patriots wide receivers and tight ends without rings: Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Chad Ochocinco, Donte Stallworth, Brandon Lloyd, Chad Jackson and… Oh, right: Hernandez
Of course good pass catchers are better to have than bad ones (spare me your comments). But the Patriots were at their most successful when Brady’s favorite receiver was still “The one that’s open” and not “The one with the $40 million contract.” Especially in the postseason.
3) There is help on the roster.
Everyone is writing Gronk off like he’s ready to be put out to stud to breed other perfect football specimens. But he had the exact same surgery done by the exact same guy as Jason Pierre Paul, whose recovery time was pegged at 12 weeks. In addition they’ve got Jake Ballard, whose signing looks pretty fricking brilliant at this point. His last season with the Giants in 2011, Ballard had 38 catches for a ridiculous 15.9 YPC to Hernandez’ aforementioned 9.5 Also (and I admit this is a stretch) if you haven’t heard the name Zach Sudfeld, let me be the first to introduce you. 6-7, 255lb UDFA after a medical redshirt season at Nevada. And total Beast Mode at the OTAs. Let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks yet, gentlemen. But someone to keep an eye on.
2) The fact that Hernandez turned out to be a hybrid Tight End/Mass Murderer won’t be a distraction.
I’ve said before and I’ll say now, that for all of Belichick’s talents, his one, true genius is eliminating distractions. He’s been doing his whole New England career. Starting with the controversy about how he shot his way (pardon the pun) out of New York. Through Terry Glenn. The Bledsoe/Brady thing. Cutting Lawyer Milloy. Ty Law calling him a lying sack of shit. Losing Brady for a whole year. Tebow. SpyGate, fercrisssake! The biggest distraction in the world was dropped like a bunkerbuster on his headquarters for an entire year. And not only did it not hurt the team, they used it as a rallying cry to stick it up the rest of the league’s ass and damn near became the best team of all time. Eliminating distractions is not a skill for him; it’s a goddamned Superpower. At little thing like an ex-player going around Dextering people will be child’s play.
1) I don’t think Hernandez’ ex-teammates will miss him.
His production, maybe. But if what we’re starting to hear out of guys like Matt Light, “I have never embraced – never believed in – anything Aaron Hernandez stood for” the day before he got arrested and cut, it’s safe to say no one liked the prick. I mean, if Matt Light hates you, you deserved to be hated.
As ridiculous as this sounds, sometimes I get accused of giving the Patriots way too much of a reach around. But to be clear: I’m not saying Hernandez is not a loss. Just that he’s not the kind of loss that’s going to turn the 2013 Patriots from a contender into the Jets overnight.