With Stephen Strasburg Locked Up, The Free Agent Class For Starting Pitching Is Going To SUCK This Offseason
By now, you’ve probably heard that the Nationals locked up their first-round, number one overall pick from the 2009 MLB draft, Stephen Strasburg, to a seven-year, $175 million deal.
Whether you agree with the Nationals’ decision or not to sign Strasburg to the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher who has undergone Tommy John surgery before, that’s not important. What is important, however, is the fact that Strasburg will not be hitting the free agent market this coming offseason. And what’s remaining for the teams who will be in search of some starting pitching help — yikes.
The youngest starting pitcher who will hit the free agent market this offseason is going to be Brett Anderson, who underwent back surgery in March. Anderson is coming off the best year of his career in which he threw 180.1 innings for the Dodgers with a 3.69 ERA, but has been plagued by the injury bug throughout his career. Anderson’s 28, but next year is technically his age-28 season. It’s a shame that he’s had to deal with injuries, because he’s extremely talented, and he’s one of the best follows on Twitter. Seems like an awesome dude.
Next in line is Mat Latos, who is enjoying quite the comeback season with the Chicago White Sox. The 28-year-old signed a one-year deal with Chicago for $3 million, which is looking like one of the best bargains of the offseason. The right-hander is 5-0 in 6 starts, and has an ERA of 2.62, which is 15th best out of 54 qualified starters in the American League. Latos pitched for the Marlins, Dodgers and Angels last year, and had a 4.95 ERA between the three clubs.
Sticking with the trend of relatively young pitchers, you’ll have Brandon Beachy on the free agent market. Beachy signed with the Dodgers this past offseason, but has yet to make an appearance. It also sounds like he’s been shut down again with an arm injury, so I’m sure teams will be lining up in droves to bring him on board next year.
Here’s probably the biggest name that will hit the free agent market after this season — Andrew Cashner. And even that name doesn’t excite me. It used to, but not so much anymore. Cashner came up as a reliever with the Cubs in 2010, and he was pumping 97 MPH, just letting it fly. As a starter, his fastball sits more in the 95 MPH range, which is still heat, but it’s come down a bit. He’s also not very consistent on a year-to-year basis performance-wise. In 2013, he had a 3.09 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 175 innings. A year later, his ERA dropped, but so did his innings pitched. Cashner had a 2.55 ERA, but it was in 123.1 innings with 93 strikeouts. Then, this past season, Cashner logged his highest ERA as a starter (4.34), but also had his highest mark of strikeouts-per-nine innings at 8.0. The main concern for teams who will be in on Cashner, aside from the inconsistency, is the fly ball percentage. His fly ball percentage for his career is 30%, and he was pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark in San Diego. Teams that don’t have pitcher-friendly home ballparks should be cautious of that.
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Clay Buchholz has a club option for 2017 at $13.5 million, so there’s a chance he might not become a free agent this winter. But let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the Red Sox aren’t complete morons and they do the right thing by declining his option. I could easily see a team wanting Buchholz as their number four or number five starter. I know I piss and moan about Buchholz on just about a daily basis, but it’s mostly because it drives me insane that he was Boston’s number two starter. I’m fine with him in my rotation, as long as he doesn’t sniff the mound during the postseason, or as long as he’s not being depended on to give you 180 innings or more as a number two starter.
A few honorable mentions here — Jered Weaver, could hit you with his fastball and you’d think that somebody was nudging you to get your attention. However, a 4.72 ERA in 2016 is much better than most would expect from a guy who’s averaging 83 MPH with his fastball. CJ Wilson’s dealing with an injury this year, and has yet to make a start, but he’ll be back some time next month. He’s not the 200-inning guy anymore, but he’s got a 3.87 ERA since he signed that five-year, $77.5 million deal before the 2012 season.
And how could I forget Big Sexy? Bartolo Colon is a free agent after this year. He could retire (seeing as he’ll be 43 by the start of next season), he could return to the Mets to continue building his legendary status, or he could opt to become a designated hitter in the American League. It wouldn’t surprise me if he came back in 2017, given that he’s appeared in seven games this year, six starts, and has a 2.82 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 38.1 innings. The world is his canvas.
PS – BRO, NOBODY CARES ABOUT BASEBALL IN MAY NEVER MIND WHAT’S GONNA HAPPEN NEXT OFFSEASON. Did I do that right?