How Does Clayton Kershaw's Historic 2016 Season Stack Up Against Pedro Martinez's 1999 Season?
Clayton Kershaw capped off his jaw-dropping month of May with 7.2 innings of two-run ball against the New York Mets with 10 strikeouts on Sunday.
In the month of May alone, Kershaw had three complete game shutouts, and logged a 0.91 ERA in 49.2 innings with 65 strikeouts. Kershaw has walked just five batters ALL season, and has walked only two batters over his last 56.2 innings. If the season ended today, Kershaw would have the best strikeouts to walks ratio in the history of the game (21.0), and Phil Hughes’ record-setting season in 2014 when he had a strikeouts to walks ratio of 11.6 wouldn’t even be close to what Kershaw is doing right now. Through 11 starts in 2016, Sunday marked the seventh time that Kershaw has had at least 10 strikeouts in a start, and they’ve all come in his last eight games.
When I think of the greatest pitching seasons that I’ve ever seen, I think of Pedro Martinez in 1999, and I think of Pedro Martinez in 2000. Pedro’s 1999 season gets all the love, because that was the year that he dominated the poster boys of the Steroid Era during the All Star Game at Fenway Park, he won the pitching triple crown, the Cy Young Award, and he would’ve won the American League MVP if two jackass writers didn’t leave him off their ballots entirely. He received more first place votes than any other player that year. But, really, his 2000 season was better.
However, since we’re placing an emphasis on Kershaw’s strikeout numbers this year, we’ll see how it stacks up against Pedro’s 1999 season when he struck out 313 batters, becoming the eighth pitcher in the modern era to strike out at least 300 batters in a season. On Sunday, Kershaw struck out his 100th batter of the year, and finished the day with 105 strikeouts through his first 11 starts. Through Pedro’s first 11 starts in 1999, he had 117 strikeouts. Not too far off Pedro’s pace. Actually, if Kershaw continues on the pace that he’s on now, he’ll end up with 327 strikeouts.
Overall performance-wise, though, Kershaw has a 1.56 ERA and opponents are hitting .169 with a .433 OPS against him. Through Pedro’s first 11 starts in 1999, he had a 2.01 ERA and opponents were hitting .222 with a .559 OPS. Over their first 11 starts in those respective years, the Dodgers and the Red Sox were both 10-1 when Kershaw and Martinez took the mound. And let’s not forget Kershaw’s five walks compared to Pedro’s 16 walks.
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Now, am I saying that Kershaw is having a better season than Pedro in ’99 so far? Fuck no. Statistically, he is. But if you don’t consider the competition that each pitcher has faced, then you’re missing the whole point. It’s not to take anything away from what Kershaw is doing right now, but you have to evaluate each performance based on the era in which they took place. And, in fairness, nobody else during this era is doing what Kershaw is doing in 2016, so it’s definitely remarkable in its own right. But it also opens your eyes, and gets you to truly appreciate what it was that Pedro was doing at the time. Kershaw is pitching in the worst division in the National League, and facing lineups with a free out once every time through the batting order. Pedro was in the best division in all of baseball, facing designated hitters, and batters one through nine were on the most hardcore steroids in the world.
But if we’re looking at this strictly on a numbers basis, then it’s pretty clear that what we’re seeing from Kershaw this season has the potential to rank pretty highly among baseball’s greatest single-season pitching performances.