Barstool Contender Series: Notre Dame's Chances of Finally Getting Past the Elite Eight
This is something I plan on doing over the next couple of days. Who are teams that aren’t getting enough ‘respect’ that should be viewed as Final Four contenders vs teams that I think are on the overrated side. I gave out Gonzaga yesterday as a team you need to start paying attention to and before Mo Watson announced he tore his ACL, I would have had Creighton as the second team on this. But, unfortunately for Watson, Creighton and college basketball the nation’s assist leader and one of the 10 most important players in college basketball is done for the season.
So we move on to the team who is currently in the lead for the ACC. The only undefeated team in conference with wins over Pitt, Louisville, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This is a team that has made back-to-back Elite Eights and almost pulled off pretty big upsets against Kentucky and UNC to get to a Final Four.
So this year? I actually like their chances to get to a Final Four (matchups pending obviously) better than the last two years? The reason why? Well outside of being extremely efficient on the offensive side of the ball (more on this later), the defense doesn’t totally suck. In the 2014-15 season, Notre Dame was 162nd in the country heading into the NCAA Tournament defensively. Last year was slightly better when the Irish were 155th. This year? They currently are 69th (nice) in the country giving up 98.3 points per 100 possessions. This is in large part due to their wing play since they have absolutely no interior presence to protect the rim.
They have mixed up their defenses a little bit – running a zone over 16% of possessions this year. This is where Notre Dame is excelling. During those 199 possessions, they are giving up just .683 points per possession. It’s nothing fancy. It’s a pretty basic 2-3 zone. But, what makes them good at it, is their versatility. They can bring wings up high to take away open 3’s and are quick enough to recover when the ball gets entered to the high post. Guys like Matt Farrell and Steve Vasturia both have quick hands and will dig into the high post too, which causes turnovers.
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Now, similar to Gonzaga the Irish are incredibly balanced on the offensive side of the ball. They have four guys averaging between 13.9 and 15.8 points per game. They have nine guys they can use in their rotation, including someone like Rex Pflueger, who won’t show up in the box score, but is key for what Mike Brey likes to run.
Back to this offense, which is some sort of beautiful. They are 3rd in the country, turning it over just 13.9% of possessions. They are first in free throw shooting at 82.8% as a team. They are 22nd in 3-point shooting at 39.5%. The only thing they don’t do well is get to the line more often as they only draw fouls on 27% of field goal attempts.
Despite being a ‘short’ team and running a lot of small ball. This team doesn’t excel in transition. It’s much better in the halfcourt ranking in the 99th percentile vs 67th percentile based on points per possession.
By far, Notre Dame wants to spot up. They live on shooting spot up jumpers, which is a good thing because they score on them at a ridiculous 42.4% clip. A lot of this has to do with the spacing Notre Dame has when whenever Martinas Geben or Austin Torres isn’t on the floor. Everyone else is capable of shooting the ball, meaning that floor space is going to be open.
Watch this play against Clemson. It highlights how you have to react to everyone on the floor being a threat to shoot from behind the line.
Clemson makes the mistake of trying to double in the corner off of Bonzie Colson’s guy. Little hint: doubling Notre Dame isn’t something you typically want to do. Or really any team that has a bunch of guards/wings that can hurt you after they break the trap. What I like here though is how Colson doesn’t bite on the help from the top of the key and instead throws a skip pass to Steve Vasturia – who just so happens to shoot 44% from three. That immediately turns Notre Dame into a 2v1 on the left hand side with two of its best players. The Clemson player bites too hard on trying to recover on Vasturia that it leads to a simple touch pass to Farrell in the corner for a wide open three. This isn’t the first clip with something like this happening.
The other dangerous part about Notre Dame offensively? The complete mismatch Bonzie Colson is. Not too many teams are used to seeing a 6’5” ‘center.’ So Notre Dame will make you adjust to their style of play, because Colson is a strong rebounder as well, they can get away with it. That’s why the lineup of Farrell-Vasturia-Pflueger-Beachem-Colson has the ability to reach a Final Four.
The thing with Colson though, is if you get him to turn over his right shoulder in the post, he’s way inconsistent. He’s had 75 possessions in the post and out of those, 44 have come on the left block. That’s his favorite place to catch it. However, when he turns over his left shoulder (21 possessions) he’s scoring 1.19 points per possession. Over the right shoulder (17 possessions) he’s scoring just .765 points per possession.
Now that said, let’s focus on where I really enjoy Notre Dame using him. The pick-and-roll or more precisely the pick-and-pop game. When they go to this small-ball lineup, Colson is typically being guarded by a guy who is slower and not used to playing on the perimeter. Like in the Clemson game here where he’s being guarded by a 6’10” Sidy Dijite.
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The moment he realizes he’s not getting the ball in the post he goes and sets a screen on the baseline side. This brings Dijite out of the play as he’s hedging that way instead of towards the lane. Vasturia is able to take two dribbles and a hop step into the lane, where Dijite is now at with both feet in the lane. Colson calmly takes a step back to the 3-point line and in a clear passing lane for Vasturia. Leads to another uncontested three. Again, for most teams they aren’t used to guarding five guys outside the arc.
Mike Brey has transformed into one of the better coaches in America and one of the coolest – I mean it’s tough to pull off the 5-day bender look every game. Am I worried about their size? Not as much as most people will bring it up. Yeah, they get beat on the offensive glass, but so do a lot of teams. I’m more worried about their reliance on shooting jumpers. We’ve seen teams who shoot well all season go cold for one game and that happens on a Saturday or Sunday in the Round of 32. But, this is a Notre Dame team that can absolutely win the ACC and go to the Final Four.