ACC/Big 10 Challenge Day 2 Preview and Picks
Yeah, technically the ACC/Big 10 Challenge started last night, but the big time games get going tonight. It’s already the 18th year of this challenge and one of the best things college basketball puts on. The ACC leads the series 10-5-2 and is 100-83 overall against the Big 10 in the event.
Last night Florida State and Northwestern both locked down wins so we sit at 1-1 as we head to day two. The two headlining games tonight are Syracuse at Wisconsin and Michigan State at Duke. There are a couple intriguing games though in Pitt at Maryland (Maryland wins at home) and NC State at Illinois (Dennis Smith is too good for Illinois) – so let’s get into it. I’ll be tweeting about the games tonight, so follow me and chime in @barstoolreags
Syracuse at Wisconsin – 7:30 pm
Line: Wisconsin -5.5
Both of these teams head into this game, desperately needing a win. Wisconsin, who entered the season with a ton of hype is 0-2 vs ranked teams right now and Syracuse is coming off a loss to South Carolina. On top of that this is the only road game Syracuse will have in the nonconference schedule as the Orange typically don’t leave New York until January anyways.
Wisconsin’s Keys: It’s quite simple for Wisconsin. They are a mess offensively and need to figure that shit out. Right now they are too focused on playing slow and getting the ball to Nigel Hayes. He’s not your number 1 option. Hell, he’s not the number 2 option. He grades out as below average on every offensive possession besides spot up jumpers per Synergy. That offense needs to run through Bronson Koenig and Ethan Happ. Luckily they get to see the 2-3 zone tonight which could help play to this thought process. Wisconsin needs to have Hayes be in the short corner, looking for kicks and to shoot from 12 feet. Let Koenig and Showalter shoot from the outside while Happ runs the middle. Wisconsin also needs to crash the offensive glass. Syracuse isn’t a great rebounding team while the Badgers are the seventh best team in the country at grabbing offensive rebounds. A lot of that comes from Happ, who has to be quick in getting his shot back up to avoid any shotblocking.
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Syracuse’s Keys: The zone has to force turnovers. Wisconsin has been turning the ball over more than normal this year – on 20% of their possessions. Granted the 2-3 zone isn’t made to force turnovers and rather force bad shots, they can use their length to force some cross-court passes. Offensively, Syracuse has to hit threes early. They are the sixth best 3-point shooting team in the country while Wisconsin is awful at guarding the three. Look for them to get Tyler Lydon some open looks early, hoping to stretch the defense and see if Frank Howard can continue his impressive start of shooting from the outside.
Pick: Wisconsin at home is tough to beat – that’s the deciding factor here. I think you see them not panic against the zone and work on getting the ball inside the paint. With how high Syracuse likes to bring their wings up in the zone, there will be looks from 12 feet. On top of that I think Happ has another big day rebounding the ball. I like Wisconsin by 9 here.
Michigan State at Duke – 9:30 pm
Line: Duke -10.5
This game was supposed to be a showcase of stars. However, Duke won’t have its three freshmen again and Michigan State is struggling out of the gates. Of course this game is at Duke since the Blue Devils refuse to play away from Cameron, which just adds to the ridiculous schedule Michigan State has played to begin this season.
Duke’s Keys: Duke has been using its four guard lineup to near-perfection so far this season as we’ve seen a lot of Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard, Matt Jones and Grayson Allen with either Amile Jefferson or Chase Jeter. They are currently the best offensive team in the country as they have an AdjO rating of 121.7. They want to play quick and look to drive and kick. They still don’t have a natural point guard, so the premise of the offense is to run and look to exploit a mismatch. Allen does a great job of getting into the lane with the ball and either finishing or finding an open man and the emergence of Luke Kennard has been paying off. They should be able to do this somewhat with ease against a Michigan State team who has struggled in forcing turnovers and guarding the three.
Michigan State’s Keys: They need to do two things to win tonight. First, they need to get Duke in foul trouble. The Blue Devils play a 6-man rotation right now and don’t really have any bench guys to help save them if this happens. Getting just 13 points from the free throw line per game isn’t nearly enough for a team like this. They need to drive and look to attack, especially Miles Bridges. They can’t settle for jumpers. Duke’s not going to block a ton of shots either, so drives should open the lane up. Second is they need to get someone else going on the offensive side of the ball. Eron Harris has been too inconsistent this year and Cassisus Winston and Josh Langford are two other freshmen that can step up and be that second guy.
Pick: I think Michigan State covers here, but Duke is in control most of the game. This feels like one of those games that Izzo has his guys ready to play and coming off the 2-1 trip to Atlantis there’s a little momentum. I think the 4-guard lineup gives a little bit of trouble as Grayson Allen will have another big game. A late push makes it an eight point win for Duke.