Preview, Pick and Things to Watch in Kentucky vs North Carolina Elite Eight Game
South Region – Memphis
No. 1 North Carolina vs No. 2 Kentucky– 5:05 pm
Announcers: Jim Nantz/Bill Raftery/Grant Hill/Tracy Wolfson
Line: North Carolina -2.5
We get a rematch of the best game of the regular season. Unfortunately this is coming in the Elite Eight as this would have been an awesome Final Four/title game. Think these teams want to get out and run? The two teams are top-20 in possession length, coming in averaging 15.3 and 15.4 seconds per offensive possession. I mean just look at the tempo for both teams here, with an insane efficiency:
The first game we saw Malik Monk blow up and Kentucky win 103-102 out in Vegas. This game should be the same tempo, but these teams aren’t close to the same. UNC didn’t have Theo Pinson that game, arguably their best defender. I do wonder if Roy will put him on Monk or Fox, especially of Joel Berry is a little banged up. We saw Fox absolutely take over the game against UCLA, but what Kentucky did well was find the mismatch. They let Monk get going before going back to Fox to close the game out. I expect to see that today, as they’ll try to find who has the better advantage to attack off the dribble.
The difference for Kentucky? The defense has finally looked its part over the last month combined with the development of Bam Adebayo. Bam’s become a great post player as they are using him in the high screen and roll and playing through him in the post. They aren’t going in spurts of getting him involved for 5 straight possessions and then ignoring him like they did in the past. Against UCLA we saw them use Bam as a passer. He did a great job of finding the guy relocating on the wing and being patient. Against Carolina’s big front line, don’t be surprised to see him pass out of the post quite a bit.
In the first game Kentucky outrebounded Carolina and that has to happen again tonight. The Tar Heels are the best offensive rebounding team in the country and will have an advantage, especially with Willis/Gabriel trying to keep Bradley/Hicks/Maye off the glass. The other advantage will be the height with Justin Jackson over Isaiah Briscoe to try and keep the ball alive, though Briscoe is a good rebounding guard.
Pick: Both teams are playing extremely well right now and are coming off impressive Sweet 16 wins. But, I’ll take Kentucky with the points here as I think they can take advantage if Berry is guarding Fox, who is playing the best basketball of the season right now.