Preview, Pick and Things to Watch in Kansas vs Oregon Elite Eight Game

Midwest Region – Kansas City

No. 3 Oregon vs No. 1 Kansas – 8:49 pm

Announcers: Kevin Harlan/Reggie Miller/Dan Bonner/Dana Jacobson

Line: Kansas -7.5

Grab all the pupcorn for this one because Josh Jackson vs Dillon Brooks is going to be all sorts of fun. Now, the lowkey secret the last couple of games has been Brooks struggling on the offensive side of the ball, especially when finishing in the paint. Against URI and Michigan he was able to beat his guy off the dribble but couldn’t finish. He’s way too good of a player for this to happen three games in a row.

This will be a home game for Kansas. We saw that against Purdue. The crowd is going to be 90% Kansas fans, which means you have to limit the big time run we know Kansas is capable of. They will push a game open by hitting a couple corner threes in a row and then throwing a lob to Josh Jackson. Oregon needs to control tempo especially on the defensive side of the ball. Both teams are better in transition offensively. Take a look at the tempo and efficiency for both teams this year:

Now, the one advantage Oregon does have is the best defender in the country in Jordan Bell. His ability to switch and defend just about anyone allows Oregon to run that 4-out lineup even without Chris Boucher. We’ll see Oregon run that 1-3-1/1-2-2 fullcourt press that will drop back and rotate into a 2-3 zone or man, but they do need to be careful of giving up open threes. Throughout the season Oregon has given up a ton of 3PA/FGA (223rd in the country) but do defend the 3-point line well (23rd in the country at 31.4%).

Offensively, we’ll see Oregon run quite a bit of ISO. This is due typically to the mismatch that is Dillon Brooks. But, he does like to catch the ball at the elbow in a high post setting and go to work. We saw it in the first play of the game against Michigan when he hit a little fadeaway off the glass. Expect to see him attack Jackson early in this set just to test where he’s at defensively in the game. The other thing they will do is let Bell attack Lucas a couple feet off the block to try and draw a couple quick fouls. The real star though has been Dorsey, who seems to hit every big shot for Oregon.

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Kansas should have open looks when Oregon is in the man-to-man. Graham and Mason are both great off the bounce and should be able to get into the lane. Once they get into the lane, Oregon looks to block shots. With the desire to do that, Kansas should be able to kick to one of the shooters for an open look. This is where Oregon has to be careful.

Pick: I can’t pick against this Kansas team in Kansas City. They have been too good this tournament to think otherwise. I do think Oregon hangs around for a decent amount of the game, but we’ll see Kansas hit those corner threes late in the second half to cover.