Preview, Pick and Things to Watch in Gonzaga vs Xavier Elite Eight Game
West Region – 6:09 pm
No. 11 Xavier vs No. 1 Gonzaga – San Jose
Line: Gonzaga -8
Announcers: Brian Anderson/Chris Webber/Lewis Johnson
I absolutely love this matchup. Once the bracket broke and we knew either Arizona or Xavier would be playing Gonzaga in the Elite Eight it’s perfect because one of these coaches and/or programs will make its first Final Four. Chris Mack and Mark Few are both incredible coaches and the fact they’ll get to add ‘Final Four’ to the resume helps people talk about them correctly now.
Xavier has been arguably the most impressive team in the tournament as they’ve beaten Florida State in Florida and Arizona in California. More importantly, they’ve absolutely dominated the 3-point line. In their last seven games (dating back to the last game of the regular season) they’ve held teams to 29% from the 3-point line and 24% in the six wins. That’s just insane defense. What they’ve done is run a little bit of the pack line defense where they are just sitting back and daring teams to beat them from the outside. They are also running a rotating zone of the 1-3-1 and 2-3, again daring these teams like Florida State and Arizona to beat them from the outside. On the flip side they have shot 39.5% as a team over the same stretch.
Gonzaga needs Nigel Williams-Goss from the regular season to show back up. He has struggled so far in the NCAA Tournament and with the expectation of Mack to rotate defenses like he did against Arizona, NWG needs to react correctly. Expect Gonzaga to push the tempo a little bit in this game as they average about 15.7 seconds per possession. This would also not allow Mack to set up his rotating defense. When Xavier is in man, Gonzaga will run its offense through Karnowski in the post. He’s an excellent passer and he can kill you with a couple post moves, most notably his little hook shot. When in zone, look for Johnathan Williams to be the one flashing middle and trying to attack a hi-lo with Karnowski and Matthews on the wing.
Take a look at how good these teams are at spot-up shooting though. This is the breakdown of plays for both teams throughout the season:
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The biggest thing is obviously how does Gonzaga shoot the ball. Xavier has switched its defense at the right time facing a row of teams that have struggled from the outside. Expect them to shade heavily on Matthews and force other guys to beat them. The other question, can Gonzaga keep Xavier off the offensive glass. The Muskies are a good offensive rebounding team (ranking 30th in the country). If Gonzaga can limit those free possessions, it will allow for more transition if they decide to push.
Pick: I think you see this game play similar to Arizona where Xavier will slow the game down, sit and take away the paint. I’ll go with them covering the +8 though I do think Gonzaga wins the game outright.