Crosstown Shootout Preview and Picks
For the casual fan, they may not know much about the Cincinnati-Xavier rivalry that plays its annual game tonight. However, it’s one of the five best rivalries in the game, that was almost derailed by a full out brawl back in 2011. Seriously, can anyone forget this?
These two schools and fan bases absolutely hate each other. Granted I see more of this by living out here in the city, but all year you hear quite a bit from both sides. Hell, half the fans spend more time talking about the other team than their own. They like to remind each other of the lack of accomplishments (frankly, both schools don’t have a TON of history, so it’s sort of funny to see them yell) whether Xavier fans reminding UC fans they’ve made two Sweet 16’s in the last 20 years or UC fans screaming about the two titles from the 1960’s since Xavier has never made a Final Four.
The fact is part of the fan bases for both schools have a bit of a little brother syndrome when it comes to each other. Xavier wants to be known as ‘THE’ school in the city when it comes to basketball. They’ve had the more recent success and are truthfully set up better for the future being in the Big East and the type of recruits they are starting to get. Cincinnati on the other hand is still trying to figure out a way out of the American, while reminding Xavier fans they are the school that represents the city. It’s absolutely fascinating to watch and ultimately leads to a rivalry I absolutely love to watch from a neutral standpoint. As a local radio host (Hi, Mo) who has covered this game since 2001, said yesterday, ‘no matter where this game is played, there’s a different atmosphere. That’s how you know it matters. Before tip there’s a sense of urgency, fearfulness, anxiety and confidence all wrapped in one in the stands.’
So what does this game matter? Well, for both teams, but especially Cincinnati there’s a great deal of importance with this game. Cincinnati’s going to be one of the two teams I mentioned (along with Maryland) who will rack up a lot of win this year and be seeded much lower than their fans think is fair. That’s because Cincinnati doesn’t have a great resume. The out of conference, they have the road win at Iowa State, but then their next best win is Penn State. Those are the only two top-100 wins they have out of the American. Looking at their schedule, there’s one more chance for a quality win before postseason play (at SMU). They need to win this game to help their seeding as much as possible. It’s a win over another tournament team. Xavier at least still has a chance for five other top-50 wins.
On top of that, Xavier has absolutely owned this series. They’ve won the last three and seven of the last nine, and no UC player has gone through Cincinnati without getting a win against Xavier. There’s still something to that at the college level, especially where these two teams typically have four-year guys.
Cincinnati has been a different Cincinnati team under Mick Cronin this season. Typically, they are a mess on the offensive side of the ball, but we haven’t seen those games in the 50s like we have in the past. In fact Cincinnati has the 55th best offense in the country this year per KenPom and grades in the 85th percentile on Synergy. A lot of this has to do with transition offense. The Bearcats are scoring 1.196 points per possession when running. The reasoning besides this being arguably the most athletic team Cronin has had at Cincinnati?
Troy Caupain. The senior point guard, who the team realizes can push the tempo. Going through and watching clips of them in transition there are a couple constants. First, they get the ball to Caupain when they can immediately off a rebound. Second, everyone else immediately gets on the wing and bolts down the lanes. They know how to fill the lanes correctly and let Caupain dictate where the defense is not going to be. Cincinnati is scoring 63% of the time Caupain has the ball in transition.
Here’s a clip of them filling the lane correctly and Caupain pushing the tempo by immediately getting the ball up the court. It’s something to watch tonight as Xavier can get caught playing uptempo and lose their men in transition.
When Cincinnati isn’t running, the plan is to attack the paint. They are shooting 54% from inside the arc, compared to 35% outside. Outside of transition, the next two ‘sets’ they grade out the best in is offensive rebounds (1.191 points per possession) and post-up (.903 points per possession).
This is thanks to Kyle Washington, the transfer from NC State, who has been the best player on Cincinnati this season. Out of the 185 possessions in the post up set, Washington has 88 of them. He prefers catching it on the right block and turning over his right shoulder. He’s catching it there and going that way more than double compared to anything else. This is where he uses his hook shot, which is the best thing he has in his arsenal. Where Xavier can catch Cincinnati here though is doubling Washington. He struggles out of the post in a double team. He grades as an average to below average passer out of the double team, which is where Xavier wants to get their transition from. If I’m Mack, I’m sending one Sumner/Macura/Bluiett, who can disrupt passes with their length to double Washington in the post and force the pass out, where he ranks in the 29th percentile in the country.
Here’s a look at his hook shot though, where, if he has a quick move can take advantage of Xavier’s weakness in the post. Notice how the double comes late, but does come on the right side, where he likes to turn. If you’re going to double here, you need to come faster and get right up on his right shoulder. The thing Washington does well though is elevate on his jump hook.
Xavier entered the season with a ton of high expectations and a top-10 ranking. Little did they realize just how much they needed James Farr and Jalen Reynolds. They’ve been a mess in the post and key pieces (Myles Davis) is no longer with the team. The 1-3-1 they thrived in last year has missed that key piece on the interior, giving up wide open threes. There’s a reason they haven’t been able to play it as much this season.
So how can Xavier win this game and where can they take advantage against a very, very good Cincinnati defense? Well, the Bearcats do struggle with handoffs, so don’t be surprised to see Mack run a weave type motion with Bluiett, Sumner and Macura up top. The other thing they can do is bring one of their bigs like a Kaiser Gates up to the wing with the ball and let Macura use the handoff like a screen (as seen in the clip below). The answer is simple though. They need to hit threes. Cincinnati will run about a 60/40 split on man vs zone, meaning they need Macura and Bluiett to shoot the ball well.
This game should be in transition though. Both teams are better when running and similar to Cincinnati, that’s due to Xavier’s point guard. Ed Sumner was the breakout player in the Big East last year and many thought he’d be an All-American candidate this year. He’s an NBA prospect (top-20/25 on most boards) who lives on getting into the paint. He’s got great size at 6’6” and will have that advantage of Caupain tonight. There’s a reason why Xavier is scoring 1.469 ppp when he’s out and running.
So who wins? I’ll take Cincinnati. Right now they are the better team and their strength of playing in the post is a major weakness for Xavier. Plus the fact this game is at 5/3 Arena and they need this game more than Xavier. That’s just how it is when you’re stuck in the American and it’s a massive down year. Look for Washington to have a big game and Gary Clark to have an advantage for Cincinnati. The guard play will balance each other out and while I like Xavier’s guards more, I just don’t trust their post play.