“You Can’t Win!"

I’m sure everybody remembers that famous line from Rocky IV where Adrian basically tells Rocky he sucks, and needless to say, that’s how most of us feel when betting, and losing, on sports. 

Now that’s not to say everyone loses every time whenever they bet on sports, just 90% of the time it feels like Adrian’s yelling directly at you.  Why is that?  Well obviously gambling on sports is a challenge to say the least.  In my view, college basketball is the only sport where if you put in the time and effort, you can truly predict the outcome more times than not.  Everything else is like banging your head against the wall, with the wall occasionally moving out of the way.   Hey, all sports are practically impossible to predict, some are just more impossible than others.  Here are the top 10.

10. Baseball – What are you freaking kidding me?  Nobody makes money on baseball.  I mean you don’t have to look much further than Pete Rose to see why.   The man played for 24 years, had more hits than any other player who ever lived, MANAGED for another 6 years and still couldn’t figure out the damn game.  What makes anybody think they could possibly predict the outcome when the all-time hit king couldn't is beyond me.  There’s just too many variables – bad hops, bad calls, anti-Yankee bugs invading the field.  Sure, you might get lucky for a week or two, but there’s just no way you can consistently pick winners.  Just ask Pete.

9. Pro Football – Please, you cannot be serious thinking you can actually win money betting on pro football.  And this includes Arena!  Forget that fact that football odds-makers are arguably the smartest people in the country (Not kidding.  I’d say rocket scientist #1, odds-maker #2) you have all kinds of fluky shit you simply cannot account for.  Fumbles at the 1, botched extra points, “questionable” pass interference, 15 yard personal fouls to extend a drive; there’s just no way you can tell when or where these things will occur.  Think about it, of ALL the millions of people who bet on pro football – does anyone actually know anyone UP money?   There can’t be.  (Note: college football, while tough, does not make the top 10.)

8. NASCAR – First of all cue “Dueling Banjo’s” and Hepatitis-C.  Second, there’s only 1 guy I know who’s doing well betting on NASCAR and it’s my buddy’s brother who lives in Vegas.  My understanding of how he wins is that quit his job and just follows the circuit, or whatever it’s called, 24-7.  He knows everything about every driver, track and carburetor in the country.   Watching a race with this kid is unbelievable – he keeps yelling at the TV, “Crash!  Flip over!  Die!  Crash!  Flip over!  Die!”  And if one of the drivers does just that, as long as it’s not his, he’s okay.  Other than him, I’ve never heard of anybody up money betting NASCAR.

7. Boxing – Obviously any time Don King is the most powerful man in the sport you know it’s going to be an uphill battle making money.  Like 4 people all-time are up money from boxing, including the fighters themselves.  Sad, but true.  Forget the judges – you’ve got referees who have no business being in the ring, trainers who keep telling their fighters they’re winning when they’re actually losing (or vice versa).   I can see maybe if you really understand the different styles of each fighter you might be able to make a few bucks, but keep in mind, a guy with a jetpack parachuting into the ring can happen at any time. 

6.  NBA – This is probably the most obvious, especially after we found out one of the refs (Donaghy) was betting on games he officiated.  Even worse, Las Vegas wants a team now… and the league is actually considering it! You can’t put an NBA team in Vegas -- that would be like moving the headquarters of Planned Parenthood to Beijing.  Regardless, while teams are literally losing games on purpose to gain more ping-pong balls for the draft at the same time the refs are phoning in second half Over’s from the sidelines - just a hunch, but the NBA is probably not the best sport to try your luck on.

5. Quarter Horses – If anyone has ever seen the Quarter horses from Los Alamitos on TVG they know exactly what I’m talking about.  For those who don’t know who Les Onaka is, quarter horses are the sprinters.  The races are usually 300-400 yards long and last about the time it takes for Devin Hester to return a kick.  The problem is half the time they crash into each other off the start, leaving at least one horse (probably yours) practically no time to make up the lost ground.  Sure, if everyone gets off to a clean start you might have a chance, but when they collide like the Three Stooges it’s next to impossible. 

4. Regular horses a.k.a. thoroughbreds – You’d think after race after race, year after year, eventually I’d improve at handicapping horse races.  Nope.  It’s like golf - I haven’t gotten any better since age 14.  Granted I can read the Daily Racing Form in the middle of the open heart surgery if I had to, but that doesn’t mean I can tell you who’s going to win the race.  45-1, 90-1, these horses couldn’t finish their last race and they’re beating favorites by 3-4 lengths.  How do you figure?  At this point, I just go with my gut and pick the opposite.  (Also, T-10 days to the Breeder's Cup...)

3. Dogs – Another suicide mission.  Go to Wonderland on a Thursday night and count the number of people who you think are up money.  If you get to “2” you’re already way, way over.  I know I’ve written about this before but you really have to see it in person to truly understand.  Nobody wins.   It sounds mathematically impossible because of the way pari-mutual betting works, but you can’t tell me anyone walking out of that place alive has more money in their wallet than they did when they walked in.  I simply don’t believe that’s possible.  Kind of like the quarter horses crashing into each other at the start, the pups do the same thing when they ‘round the first turn, and the only one who comes away unscathed is “Swifty” the mechanical rabbit.

2. Jai Alai – Everything I learned about life I learned from watching Jai Alai.  That's not completely true, but most of it is. Basically before each match the 8 teams and the 3 refs decide backstage which team’s going to win.  The only question is whether or not you were lucky enough to bet on that team.  You’ve got guys climbing walls and making catches like Willie Mays, then the very next play somehow dropping the easiest shot in the world.  Eventually a book will be written on Jai Alai - stories of degenerates tipping over dumpsters looking for uncashed winning tickets, to these same degenerates kicking holes in the wall, getting their foot stuck in said holes, and then threatening players with deportation.  Sounds like a best seller to me... 

1. WNBA – Oh, you heard me sister.  Not that I’ve ever bet on it, but the WNBA has got to be the most impossible sport to make money on.  Everybody knows you can’t figure out women; not even women can figure out women.  Think about this for a second - this league hasn’t even been corrupted yet.  It’s only a matter of time before we see Sue Byrd in a hot tub with Anderson Hunt, Luther Campbell and members of the Vegas mob.  You’ve got lesbians cheating on other lesbians (pause), straight girls mad at their boyfriends for no f*cking reason, and meanwhile all of them want more playing time from their coach, Bill Laimbeer.  You think you can pick winners in the WNBA?  Go right ahead.  I’ll stick to Jai Alai and Boxing.