Week 9 NFL Locks
Is this the first week of the year with no double digit point spreads? I think so. Although I guess when the 2 best teams play each other and the Rams and Dolphins are off, maybe it’s not that big of a surprise. Either way, the bottom line is that this is by far the toughest week of the season from a degenerate’s perspective and who better than The Stool to provide America with a 7-pack of locks for Week 9. (As usual, play at your own risk.)
Game 1: Cleveland -1.5 vs. Seattle
What the hell is going on around here? Pats undefeated, Red Sox winning World Series left and right, Boston College ranked #2 in the country; now the Browns are favorites 3 games in a row? Wwwow! I kind of thought the line here would be Seattle -3 but the last thing I would ever do is question Vegas. And you shouldn’t either. The Seahawks are banged up and Shawn Alexander is absolutely killing fantasy owners (pause). Plus, I still can’t believe they lost that Sunday night game at home a few weeks ago to the Saints. The Browns are coming off back-to-back wins, true, against the 2 worst teams in the country in the Dolphins and Rams, but I think they have one more left in them before they lose the following week at Pittsburgh.
Lock #1: Cleveland -1.5
Game 2: Atlanta -3 vs. San Francisco
You know things are going bad when your freaking kicker flips-off the home crowd. Not only has San Fran lost 5 straight (remember that win at St. Louis? Me neither.) but now Smokin’ Joe Nedney is giving the hippies up in NoCal the finger. Cue protest. On the other hand, while the 9ers have been getting blown out all over the place, the Falcons have been in games late at Jacksonville, at Tennessee and at New Orleans. They could’ve won all 3 of those games but didn’t because well, they suck too. However Atlanta is still the play here in possibly the worst game of the season. Also, the Meaningless Statistic of the Week is in their favor: teams coming off a bye week after a loss are 6-3 on the year. How meaningless is that?!
Lock #2: Atlanta -3
Game 3: Dallas -3 at Philadelphia
T.O. back to Philly, Romo signs new contract… this just reeks of too many distractions. Plus, I’m still not sold on Dallas' coach and their defense for that matter. Fantasy wise, yeah they’re great. They take chances which leads to turnovers and defensive touchdowns. It also leads to big plays, especially through the air. Philly is a better team than 3-4. They just saved their season last week in Minnesota, now they come home for a Sunday Night NBC game against their hated rivals with Al Michaels watching and wagering from the booth. This would really be impressive if the Cowboys could go in and win this game, considering how important it is for the Eagles.
Lock #3: Philadelphia +3
Game 4: New Orleans -3.5 vs. Jacksonville
I’m sorry, New Orleans stinks. I don’t care what they did in San Francisco, this team is soft and I refuse to believe other wise. How do you only beat the Falcons by 6 freaking points at home? That’s almost impossible. And the Carolina home loss was equally embarrassing. I like Jacksonville. While everybody else is racking up points, this team still prides itself on pitching and defense. Well at least the defense part. This Grey character at QB scared the shit out of me during that Monday night game vs. the Colts, but last week did what he was supposed to do – not f*ck up. 7 for 16 for 100 yards is not exactly Pro Bowl material, but that’s all they’re asking of him in Jacksonville.
Lock #4: Jags +3.5
Game 5: Kansas City -2 vs. Green Bay
Now this isn't so much a pro-Chiefs bet as it as an anti-Pack. I don't have the numbers, but the chances of winning a road game after a Monday night overtime win has got to be 50-1. I'm serious. And that's exactly what Green Bay will be trying to do come Sunday. Furthermore, the Chiefs have won 4 out of 5 overall after the "experts" counted them out at 0-2, and everybody knows they always play well at home. I'm not in love with KC by any means, but for the reasons stated above, I am this week. This just looks like an impossible spot for the Pack.
Lock #5: Kansas City -2
Game 6: Tennessee -4 vs. Carolina
At some point Tennessee has to blow somebody out at home. 20-13 over the Falcons in Week 5, 13-9 this week over the Raiders. They can’t keep doing this. The Titans are 5-2 on the year and in the middle of a 3 game “home stand” before traveling to Denver and Cincinnati, so they obviously need this game. On the other hand, Carolina at some point has to stop winning every game on the road with David Carr and Vinny Green Nuts behind center. The Panthers are 4-0 on the road and it just has to end at some point. Rod Bironas may have to kick 15 field goals to do it, but the Titans finally the cover line in Nashville.
Lock #6: Tennessee -4
Game 7 a.k.a. WWIII: New England -4.5 at Indianapolis
In Jim Mora voice, “Minus 4.5? MINUS 4.5??” Yes Jim, that’s the spread and it’s a good one. But will the Pats win and more importantly will they cover is the question? I know you’re going to hear this game broken down by everybody you talk to in the next few days, but folks, if you haven’t figured this out already, we might be watching the greatest team of all time here in New England. You don’t just win games like the Pats have been winning. It just doesn’t happen. 38-7, 49-28, 52-7. They’re averaging over 40 points a game! I was one of the idiots who actually thought the Redskins would play them tough on Sunday, by the 2nd quarter I was flipping between poker and DVR porn. Personally, I don’t think Vegas could’ve made this line high enough. Sure the Colts have improved since last year, Bob Sanders apparently is the one-man ‘85 Bears. But with the Pats, you’re watching and betting on history. Enjoy the ride. 4.5 points a steal.
Lock #7: New England -4.5