Sox Offenders

All the signs of October are here: shorter days, colder nights and colorful leaves. And for the fourth time in five years, Red Sox baseball is as much a part of autumn as candy apples and carving pumpkins. The Sox not only clinched their first division title in 12 years, but also hung on to the best record in baseball to insure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. For the Red Sox, home field advantage is bigger than you might think.

Of the nine “regular” starters, seven of them have higher batting averages at home. Mike Lowell is 101 points higher at Fenway, Lugo +96, Ortiz +70 and Pedroia +69. Only Tek (-4) and Youk (-43) hit better on the road. With all batters included, the Sox hit .297 at home and .262 on the road. Interestingly, the pitching is better on the road: 3.59 ERA versus 4.13 at home. Somehow I can make a case that it all works out to the advantage of the Red Sox, but I’m still too haunted by the images of the Demonic Step-Dancer Jon Papelbon at Friday night’s celebration to figure it out.

The party’s over for now, but hopefully there are three more in the future. Season two begins Wednesday night for the Sox with baseball’s only 20-game winner since 2005, Josh Beckett, facing 19-9 John Lackey. While Lackey’s numbers look to be Cy Young-eligible, against the Red Sox that all goes away. Boston has bent Lackey over in his two starts this season, one in April and one in August, for an ERA of 8.38. And it is the meat of the order that gives Lackey trouble: Manny, Ortiz and Drew are a combined 25-for-60 (.417) with six home runs.

A little bit of a surprise is the announcement that Dice-K will pitch game two. The Dice Man has struggled mightily down the stretch and has been a better road pitcher, while Curt Schilling, game three’s scheduled starter, has looked strong in September and is legendary in the post-season. Since the Angels have never faced Dice-K, the “surprise factor” must be in effect. Hey, it worked at Pearl Harbor. Not to mention Anaheim’s number two starter, Kelvim Escobar, has looked very Matsuzaka-like down the stretch, allowing 21 runs in 23 2/3 innings in September: a 7.99ERA and a .337 opposing batting average.

When the Sox head west, hopefully Schill will be looking to end the series. Schilling has a 3.15 ERA in his four September starts, striking out 15 and walking just two – no, that’s not a typo - in 25-and-two-thirds innings. He will likely face Jered Weaver, who has a 4.50 ERA in September and has struck out 21 in 28 innings.

The Angels enter the post-season with some concerns at the plate. Chone Figgins limps into October in the midst of a 0-for-22 drought and still nursing a sore wrist. I’ll leave that one alone, just too easy. Vlad has been resting sore triceps on both arms, Cabrera is hitting just .268 since the break (.328 pre-break), and Reggie Willits just .271 (.312 pre-break).

The Red Sox are going in the other direction, very likely due to Tito’s much-maligned “player rest” during the season. Manny and Youk are back from their injuries and producing. The Red Sox’ big bats are all business in the second half. Since the break, Ortiz is hitting .352, Lowell .350, Pedroia .317, Manny .317, and JD Drew .286. Oh, and there’s this guy named Jacoby Ellsbury hitting .350 since being called up in September and has swiped nine bases as well.

All the numbers seem to favor the Sox, as do the trends in the second half and in September. It is difficult to imagine the Red Sox going almost wire-to-wire in the AL East only to fall in the first round of the playoffs. They seem to have the ability to win every “must game” and raise their level of play against better teams. I wouldn’t be shocked by a three-game sweep, while New York and Cleveland beat each other mercilessly for five games. But you just never know.

If the next issue rolls around, and there Sox Offenders byline isn’t by Red and Denton, you can be sure the unthinkable happened. Otherwise, we’ll be in the middle of the ALCS and spewing more Red Sox propaganda, statistics, Yankee-hating and lots of made-up stuff at you.

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