Sox Offenders

Understand: When it comes to baseball, we love us a good divisional race, almost as much as we love the idea of Cameron Diaz mistaking our face for her rocking chair. But the way the Red Sox are playing – coupled with the way the Yanks, Jays, Os and Rays are playing – could give one the impression that the AL East race is fait accomlpli. Red Sox, over and out.

But we love to argue points, so this week, Denton and I are tackling the question that’s been on everyone’s mind since the start of May: Are the Red Sox going to win the AL East? My theory is that they will not. Denton believes that they will. So let’s tear through these Miller Lites and get down to it, then.

Don’t uncork the champagne yet: Things have been going impossibly good for the Red Sox so far this season. The pitching has been superb, and when they have an off day, the offense bails them out. And on those nights when the offense can’t get it going, the starters typically amp it up a notch to keep things close.

But that’s just it; things have been going almost too good. Perhaps it’s the bitter, pre-2004 sentiment in me, but I’m not accustomed to a season in which everything just goes along swimmingly. Look at the Blue Jays: they were looking to make it a three-team race this year when they broke camp. Six weeks later, they lost their closer, their catcher, their third baseman, and their ace went down with an appendectomy – not to mention the fact that Frank Thomas suddenly forgot how to hit.

Could a similar fate befall the Sox? It’s totally possible. If Josh Beckett comes back and can’t regain the mojo that propelled him to a 7-0 record, or if Curt Schilling, gamer that he is, keeps struggling or, God forbid, if something happens to Papelbon, it could be a pretty long summer. On the offensive, we’re still not sure if JD Drew is going to show up at all this season. The last few games against the Texas Rangers have seen him turn things around, but he’s likely got an extended stay on the DL coming to him at some point this season. And as of this writing, Ortiz has sat out a couple games with hammy problems – and, man, is that line-up different without him.

But the one thing that’s got me most concerned is, and I hate to admit this, the Yankees. Despite the fact I’ve lived through the Buck Showalter era, I can’t imagine a world in which they just roll over and die the way they have through the first couple months of the season. They’ve got the Rocket coming back in a few weeks, and as much as we Boston fans like to deny it, he’s going to bring the noise. But if he goes tits up, Steinbrenner will go out and get himself a Todd Helton or a Dontrelle Willis or one of a hundred other mercenaries who are hungry for a pennant. Will it guarantee him a Series? No way; he couldn’t buy one with Mussina or Johnson or Giambi or Sheffield, either. But it will probably give them enough juice to run us off the rails in the East.

Hey, I hope they prove my sad ass wrong. But that’s just what I’m feelin’.

Stick a fork in the rest of the East:Somewhere in New York, Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa, fat ladies are singing. Red’s been sampling the homemade cherry wine a bit too often methinks, this thing is ovah! Hey, I’ve lived through ’75, ’78, ’86 and even a certain 5-game period last season that has seen the Red Sox give it up like a two-dollar whore, but this is different. This is 2007 and these guys are for real.

We all know by now starting pitching is the foundation for championship teams. So take a look at the Red Sox starting five. Schilling, Beckett and Dice-K could be aces on any squad, and they’re one-two-three here, in no particular order. Then you’ve got Wake, and a surprising Julian Tavarez. Sure, the guy looks a little whacked out there with his crazy Peyton-Manning-like gestures. Sure, he decides to roll the ball to first to get the out, foregoing the more tradition toss. And, yeah, Manny rubs his head in the dugout on off-nights and he wears shoes with Big Papi’s mug on them. But he’s doing OK, so leave him alone. You want depth? There’s a couple of guys named Lester and Buchholz chillin’ in the minors who look ready to step up any time.

Regardless of whether the starters go eight, or fade early in the fourth, the bullpen is nails. On a “normal” night, when the start goes deep, Okajima and Papelbon shut the door. They don’t just close it gently with a “no thank you, we don’t want any,” they slam that sucker in your face. If the starter hits the showers a little early, opposing hitters get to choose from guys like Pineiro, Romero, Snyder and Lopez. Mike Timlin is also lurking somewhere, alleged to be on the DL but more likely called for some sort of clandestine operation by the US Military. He’ll be back. Suffice to say, pitching is covered.

The Sox have made their statements with the bats over the years, never really having the starters or the ‘pen to win the low-scoring contests. Now that the pitching is there, the line-up becomes even that much more dangerous. The team is 28-0 when scoring five or more runs. I’ll help you with the math here: they’ve played 50 games and scored five or more runs in over half of them. Just ‘cause they don’t need to rely on the bats doesn’t mean they don’t have them.

The icing on the best-record-in-baseball cake? Manny hasn’t heated up yet. JD Drew has been all but invisible. Lead-off man Julio Lugo is hitting .225 but has more RBI than any other lead-off hitter. It’s been guys like Youk (20-game hit streak, .353 average), Lowell (.329, 38 RBI) and of course, the Papinator has been doing his thing to the tune of 9 homers and 38 RBI. Coco Crisp, while compiling his own set of web gems, hasn’t been swinging the bat well either.

The point is this team is too balanced and too deep to falter. None of the history matters, and the Yankee fans crying “it’s still early” – well it isn’t that early. Georgie can go out and overpay any big name pitchers (Clemens, for example) and big bats, but it won’t be enough this time. The rest of the AL East is fighting for second place and a possible wild card seat. And yes, I’m sitting here in my 2007 American League East Champions t-shirt writing this.

Take a look at the AL East, would you? The Yankees are done. Giambi is losing his mind, Rivera is losing his magic, and A-Rod shot his load in April. Torre and Cashman are both on thin ice and the rest of the players are aging before their eyes. Toronto, the perennial “they’ll be contenders this year” pick – they suck. Baltimore is looking to secure their 57^th-staright 4^th place finish if they can manage to lose more than the Yankees, and Tampa is already snuggling up nice to 5^th. The rest of the season is a tune-up for October.

More Red and Denton rambling can be found daily at www.survivinggrady.com