10 Reasons the Patriots Can, Should and WILL Get Two 1st Round Draft Picks for Matt Cassel

Now that the NFL season is finally over, we can start to look at the only thing that's been on Bill Belichick's mind since the moment the final gun sounded in Week 17. And that's how to hook the jumper cables up to the Patriots dynasty and retake their rightful place at the top of the football world. For that, I'm going to presuppose two things:
1. Tom Brady will be healthy. And
2. They'll franchise Matt Cassel and trade him.

The first one I have no trouble believing. There's plenty of empirical evidence that points to Brady coming all the way back. For one, there's Peyton Manning, who was bothered by a bum knee all of last season, waited until July 15th to get operated on, missed all of training camp and ended up winning the MVP. Then there's Carson Palmer, who, like Brady, has his left ACL and MCL operated on as well as his dislocated kneecap. Palmer had his surgery in January of 2006 and over the next two years played all 16 games and threw for over 4,000 yards in each. Brady will have had 11 months of rehab behind him by the kickoff of next season. And if the pictures of him and Gisele in Mexico are any indication, his mind isn't on his knee.

Which leads to the conclusion that the Pats will do what everyone thinks they'll do; slap the franchise tag on Cassel and get as much value as they can for him in a trade. Again, assuming Brady is healthy, it's the only move that makes sense. You don't tie up $28 million of your cap space on two quarterbacks unless they're going to start putting two balls in the game at once. So the obvious question now becomes, "How much can they get for Cassel?" And I have to admit, I'm amazed at how little most people think Cassel's trade value is and are lowballing what kind of draft picks the Pats can get in return for him on the open market. I've heard maybe a couple of 2nd Rounders, a late-round 1st, possibly a move up in the 1st round if they include their own pick. If any of those are right, if the Patriots end up settling for a deal like that, then Belichick should resign in disgrace, and that's not going to happen. I'm going to go out on a limb right now and promise you that the Patriots will end up getting at least TWO 1st Round picks for Cassel... even if it's one this year and one next... and here are 10 reasons why:

1. Cassel is a known commodity.
27 year old QB's with four years of NFL experience don't become available every day. Granted he's only got one full season on his stat sheet, but in that season Cassel's numbers were better than those of Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, flavor-of-the-month Matt Ryan and Brett Favre. He's already a guy with name recognition whom you can sell to your fan base. At the very least teams know he's capable of putting together a 21 TD, 11 INT, 89.4 Passer Rating season because he just did it. You can't say that about your guy if you choose to roll the dice with Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez, either of whom could be the next Alex Smith-like $50 million mistake.

2. The going rate for proven veterans is high.
*The most recent example of a franchised player who got traded is Jared Allen of the Chiefs. The Vikings gave up a 1st (the 15th overall), and two 3rd's, plus a swap of their 6th's. For a pass-rushing specialist Defensive End, not a QB who's still going up the incline of his learning curve.
*Late this season, the Cowboys gave Detroit their 1st (20th overall), a 3rd, a 6th and a 7th in 2010 to get Roy Williams, a coach-killing carcinogen with 1 TD on the season.

3. The price of quarterbacks is even higher.
*In the '04 Eli Manning Draft Day fiasco, in order to get the runt of the Manning litter the Giants gave up Phillip Rivers, (the 4th overall pick) a 3rd, and 2005's 1st (that turned out to be Shawne Merriman) and 5th. And while he was highly rated, Li'l Eli was a crapshoot.
*To get an anonymous nobody like Matt Schaub, who'd played all of six games for Atlanta in 2004, the Texans gave up two 2nd rounders.
*In 2002, the Bills wanted Drew Bledsoe, but swore they'd never part with a 1st rounder. The Pats dug in their heels and the Bills caved, giving up their 1st in 2003 (Ty Warren). But at that time, Bledsoe was damaged goods who appeared to be on the downside of his career and who'd made it clear he'd never go back to the Patriots to be a backup.

4. Cassel has given the Patriots leverage.
Unlike Drew, Cassel said last week he'd be perfectly willing to stay in Foxboro as the second stringer. Whether he meant it or not, he strengthened the Pats bargaining position by taking the "Well you can't take him back" card out of every potential trading partner's deck.

5. Supply & Demand
The following teams are probably in the market for a quarterback: Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, San Fran, St. Louis, Tampa, Jacksonville, Houston and Kansas City. You could make a case that some others such as Carolina and Tennessee should be as well, but you can safely say these ten teams, almost 1/3 of the league, are desperate to upgrade at QB.

6. Adam Smith says they can.
The question isn't "How much is Cassel worth in trade?" It's "How much is someone willing to spend?" In Wealth of Nations, Smith explains that the biggest factor in determining the value of a thing is scarcity, not usefulness. Quarterbacks who can put up 3,500 yards in a season are scarce, therefore teams will pay extra to get one. In the same way that water is more useful than diamonds, but water is cheap and diamonds cost a fortune.

7. New GM's need to make dramatic moves.
Careers in the NFL are made and broken on the ability to land a guy who can do what Cassel has already proven he can do. And new GM's have been hired in QB-hungry towns like Tampa, Detroit and Kansas City and others like Denver that have decent quarterbacks but may be looking to make a change. And it's worth mentioning that the guy now calling the shots in KC is the same guy who scouted and drafted Cassel, and Matt's old Offensive Coordinator is now running the Broncos. You have to think they'd both love to build a team around him.

8. The Patriots missed the playoffs.
In any offseason, Belichick is the standard by which all other football front office men are judged. But typically his offseasons are shorter than most other GM's and he has to play catch up. This year that's not the case. And the last time the Pats missed the playoffs... when Belichick had a jump on the competition so to speak... was after the 2002 season. Here's what he did that year: Drafted Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, and Tully Banta-Cain. Traded Tebucky Jones for a 2nd Rounder in 2004 (Corey Dillon) and traded for a another '04 No. 1 (Vince Wilfork). He also signed Rosevelt Colvin, Rodney Harrison, Ted Washington, Tyrone Poole and Don Davis. Oh, and they went 14-2 each of the next two years and won both Super Bowls. The bottom line is you don't outsmart Belichick when he's got extra time to prepare.

9. Revenge.
The Patriots have suffered enough for whatever picayune indiscretions they may have committed. They gave up a 1st rounder over Spygate, and they suffered for it last year. Turning the 230th pick into two No. 1s would be the perfect payback. Like Hitler making France sign a surrender in the same train car the French made Germany surrender in at the end of WWI.

10. Belichick will start a bidding war.
He might as well start putting up streamers with little colored pennants and rent a Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man, because Wild Bill's Hot Young Quarterback Emporium is open for business. And he's going to be drawing a lot of customers to the lot. If any team in the league tries to nickel-and-dime him, he can always mention that other club that just came by to look at Cassel and were ready to drive him home. I count three teams in the NFC North alone that are desperate and know a good QB could be the difference in their division next year.

To use a different analogy, Belichick is Scott Boras, representing the No. 1 free agent on the market and he's not going to sign him to any home town discount. And like they always say about baseball free agents, all it takes is one team willing to overspend. In a crowded field of team's desperately trying to fill the scarcity of quarterbacks this offseason, Belichick is guaranteed to find that one team.