Payback at Pimlico: 3 Steps to Glory

Payback at Pimlico: 3 Steps to Glory

The 1989 Preakness Stakes, with Sunday Silence and Easy Goer dueling neck and neck down the stretch, was without a doubt the greatest horse race I’ve ever seen. Like most kids in a gambling-centric family, I remember where I was, I remember the announcer’s call, and I remember asking my dad if I could bet on the Belmont. Since then, actually since ’92 with Pine Bluff, I’ve done fairly well in the “Run for the Black Eyed Susans”, or whatever they call it. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, post positions and conniving owners who send out kamikaze rabbits are really not an issue. And with 14, rather than 20 horses, we have a much more manageable field from which to choose. So, in an effort to get some payback from the disaster that was The Derby, I’ve devised three simple steps that will hopefully predict the winner of this year’s race and recoup at least SOME our losses from 2 weeks ago.
The first step is called “No Derby, No Cry”. Why? Well in the last 25 years, we’ve only had one, ONE horse win the Preakness who did not run the Derby. Anyone? Anyone? That’s okay if you don’t know - it was a horse called Red Bullet in 2000. Red Bullet had placed 2nd to eventual Derby winner Fusiachi Pegasus in that year’s Wood Memorial, and got his revenge not in Louisville, but 2 weeks later at Pimlico. So we’re talking about a quality horse here. Every other horse who’s won the Preakness since 1980 BESIDES Red Bullet has at least RACED in the Kentucky Derby.
Looking at the 2005 field – I don’t see a “Red Bullet” in any of the non-Derby runners. We’ve got Galloping Grocer (like Funny Cide, a New York gelding), Golden Man (never heard of him), Hal’s Image (never heard of him), Malibu Moonshine (great name) and Scrappy T. Simply put, none of these horses have the speed, class or endurance to contend in this race. However, I do feel some bad karma creeping in here as I snub ole Scrappy T. The Scrapster was part of the “Original 6” Aqueduct horses I bet on in my early days of TVG, so I’ve known him for a while. Still, despite the loyalty factor, I can’t pull the trigger on the Scrappy T.

Also, if you’re thinking about taking a sip of Uncle Jesse’s Malibu Moonshine, not only does the horse have a great name, but the trainer has an even better one. King T. Leatherbury is the man in charge. Yup, I know, sounds like a porn star. Problem is – the horse has no chance. I’d lay off the Moonshine.

So, step 1 – eliminate the non-Derby runners. Easy enough.

In Step 2 we X-out the “Big 3”. No, not Bird, Parrish and McHale, we’re talking about Zito, Frankel and Lukas. None of whom have a prayer to win this Saturday.

As of Stool deadline day (Monday), it appears Zito will be sending 3 of his 5 Derby disappointments to Pimlico: High Fly, Noble Causeway and Sun King. They finished 10th, 14th and 15th, respectively at Churchill Downs. This is great news because there are people out there who will actually bet them, thus improving our horse’s odds.

Bobby Frankel’s lone entrant is High Limit. A horse that was so bad 2 weeks ago, he finished first in the race AFTER the Derby. That’s pretty bad. Like Zito’s 3, the Frankel horse will get some undeserved play as well. I wouldn’t touch him.

Finally, D. Wayne has officially gone IN-sane if he runs Going Wild in the Preakness. Like Clouseau’s boss in “Return of the Pink Panther”-insane. We’re talking round-room, no windows and a straight jacket here. Going Wild finished 18th at Churchill, 29 back, which bumps up his league leading total to an ultra-embarrassing 86 ¼ lengths back in his last 3 starts. It’s just amazing they’re still allowing him to race against live animals.

So step 2, to reiterate, is to take a big purple crayon and put as many squiggly lines as you can through all 5 of these pretenders. In two weeks time, there’s no bleepin’ way these horses will be able to bounce back from such dismal performances. No bleepin’ way.

Step 3 – if you’re keeping score, we’ve now eliminated all but 5 horses we think have a legitimate shot to win the race. They are: Afleet Alex, the deserving favorite at 5-2, F’n Giacomo (6-1), Closing Argument (7-1), Greeley’s Galaxy (20-1) and “our boy” Wilko at 10-1. Compared to the 10 or so most experts thought had a chance in the Derby, our 5 here is a very manageable number. Now it’s time to pick the winner.

Basically what it comes down to is which of these 5 horses will be able to finish the mile and 3/16ths without, and that’s the key, WITHOUT the benefit of a suicidal pace. Unless they fly in Spanish Chestnut, a.k.a. “the Kamikaze rabbit”, to go ballistic in the opening 3/4rs we’re just not going to see the blistering pace we had two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Therefore, closers will be at a disadvantage because the fast pace is something they rely upon in order to pass their tired rivals down the stretch. Don’t get me wrong, it’ll still be quick, but not deadly. So right off the bat, of the remaining 5, the 2 horses that benefited most from that pace – Wilko and Giacomo, are out. Both came from double digit running positions after a mile to finish 6th and 1st, respectively, but just won’t have that advantage on Saturday. So unfortunately, no Triple Crown this year, but, good news for Visa as once again they save the million dollar bonus. Yeah Visa!

Next to cross-out is Greeley’s Galaxy. He just showed nothing in the Derby that would make me think he’s has a chance in the Preakness, and the jockey swap (Flores for Desormeaux) is really not an upgrade.

So then there were two – Afleet Alex and Closing Argument. One was raised by wolves, the other by human beings. One has multiple graded stakes victories, the other, just one. One has the most inexperienced rider in the field, the other has the jockey who single-handedly cost me 200 bucks last year at Saratoga. As much as I like Afleet Alex, I really have questions about Jeremy Rose. What was he doing whipping the horse like Henry Hill on the kitchen floor when he was 8 lengths in front in the Arkansas Derby? Especially a horse so heavily raced like Afleet Alex. I just don’t get it. And most experts agree, once Bellamy Road ran out of gas, the Derby was his for the taking.

My winner, therefore, is Closing Argument at 7-1. Obviously his performance in the Derby was overshadowed by the winner’s, but if you look at what HE did the entire race, it’s actually more impressive. Unlike Giacomo, Closing Argument was really NOT the beneficiary of the hot pace; in fact, he was never more than 5 ½ lengths back the entire race, and yet STILL had plenty left down the stretch. Furthermore, not only did he bobble at the start, but he had to go 9-wide coming out of Ohio in the 18th post. It was just a big time effort from Closing Argument who’s now 8 for 8 career in the money. Can he run that race again? And if so, will Cornelio screw it up? Please let’s hope not.

Preakness “Payback” wagers: $40 to win on Closing Argument. $2 Exacta – Closing Argument w/ALL. ($26) $1 Tri – Closing Argument/Afleet Alex/ALL. ($12) Maybe the Moonshine will get 3rd… Good luck again to everyone at the Preakness.