Here's How The Celtics Can Continue To Make The Warriors Their Bitch When They Play Tomorrow
The Golden State Warriors have a Celtics problem. Yeah I said it, and before you say anything allow me to provide you some proven scientific evidence that supports my claim. In their last 5 meetings, the Celtics have won 3. Hell, they’ve won 2 of the last 3 meetings including IN Oracle Arena where they actually have 2 of their 3 wins during that stretch and that’s a building where almost no road team ever wins. All we hear day in and day out is how scary the big bad Warriors are and how they broke the league. Well you know who isn’t scared of that team? This man. This is his scared face
I get it, the Warriors added a healthy Boogie and have won 9 in a row. Good for them. The Celtics will be rested and currently have won 5 in a row, 10 straight at home and if you go back further they’ve won 14 of their last 16 at the Garden. This isn’t to say the Warriors aren’t dominant, but if the last THREE SEASONS have told us anything, it’s that the Celtics have the formula to give this team fits. Whether it was the 73 win greatest team of all time, or the Kevin Durant super team, it’s never mattered. The Celtics have always found a way to beat this team no matter how stacked they were. Why should that change now that their own team has more talent than ever and is playing well? Here are more facts for you to consider. In their last 10 games against each other, 7 of them have been decided by 6 points or less. Over the course of this Warriors dynasty they are blowing out teams left and right, yet for some reason the Celtics always play them close. Why do we think that is? Because no team in the NBA can match up with GS quite like the Celtics can and that is not debatable.
If the Celtics are going to pull off the win in a game they will most likely not be favored in, they are going to have to do a few things and do them well. What are they? Let’s discuss
Unleash their Boogie stoppers
Oh how are they going to stop Boogie? My how quickly everyone forgets. You see this team and this current frontcourt has already played a healthy Boogie, I would argue a better version of the current Boogie when they played NO on January 16th, 2018 before got hurt. What if I told you that the combo of Baynes/Horford/Theis held Boogie to just 5-14 shooting? Baynes had him on 31 possessions and gave up just 10 points. You take Boogie out by unleashing the best combination of defensive big men in the league. He had a 27.4% usage rate in that game and given the team he’s on now it certainly won’t be that high tomorrow, so the Celtics have a great chance of making him completely irrelevant.
The beauty of a healthy BOS frontcourt in this game is they can defend like they did back when Perk was on this team. They shouldn’t have to double whenever Boogie gets it which will allow everyone else to stay on the perimeter on their man, eliminating open looks for Boogie to pass out of. I cannot stress how important that matchup is going to be. Be disciplined against Cousins and frustrate him and you can take him out of this game.
The Warriors strength is the Celtics strength
Everyone knows the Warriors are a guard oriented team that lives on the perimeter. Well, guess who has the best collection of perimeter defenders in the league? This isn’t me being a homer, I’m just talking facts. Let’s look at how Curry has done against this Stevens defense over the last few years
2017-18: 50/45% with 2.5 TOs a game (ok point Curry)
2016-17: 41/27% with 3.0 TOs a game
2015-16: 39/51% with 8.5 TOs a game
This is how Klay has done
2017-18: 26/20% with 1.0 TOs a game
2016-17: 52/35% with 2.0 TOs a game
2015-16: 37/33% with 1.0 TOs a game
And finally, here’s Durant
2017-18: 44/30% with 2.5 TOs a game
2016-17: 76/50% with 2.0 TOs a game (1 GP)
So you see, when it comes to limiting their three stars, the Celtics have the personnel to at least give them a chance. They’ve proven they could do it before and I have full confidence they can do it again. There’s also this to consider. Guess who has the 2nd best opponent 3P% in the league at 33.4%? The Boston Celtics. Few teams defend the three point line like they do, and it just so happens that 32.6% of GS’s points come from three, which is the 7th most in the league. Of all their FGA, 37% of them are threes, so it’s fair to say an area where the Celtics thrive just to happens to be a huge part of GS’s offense. I like that matchup considering their opponent 3P% is even better at home at 32.8%.
They employ the Warriors Killer
Kyrie Irving has taken down the dragon on the biggest stage. Last year he averaged 26.5 points a night on 50/54% splits against this team. He is one of the few people on the planet that can match Steph Curry blow for blow when Curry starts to get ridiculous. He’s rested, he’s playing the best basketball of his career, and he knows how important this game is for this Celtics team. Having Kyrie Irving in your back pocket against a Warriors team will always mean you have a chance.
Utilize your drastically better second unit
Again, these are facts. The Warriors are extremely top heavy, whereas the Celtics have legit talent on both units. These Celtics currently have the 10th best scoring second unit in the league at 39.1 points a night, whereas the Warriors rank 28th at 30.5. Playing at home, that Celtics second unit bumps up to the 7th best scoring bench at 42.3, and on the road GS drops a spot to 29th. This is their biggest advantage by far, and it could very well be the difference in this game.
So how do the Celts take advantage? First, keep them out of the paint. Kevin Looney can’t do anything but dunk, Shaun Livingston is going to want to back you down into the paint for a quick turnaround, and as long as you keep Iggy from scoring on the break, you live with his 35% three point shooting. You look the matchups position by position, and there is not one area where the Celtics bench shouldn’t be favored if they play up to their potential.
Prepare for the Warriors third quarter bukkake
You know it’s coming. This is how the Warriors play, they let you hang around for a half to give you a false sense of hope, and then come out in the 3rd quarter and destroy you. They lead the league in 3rd quarter scoring at 30.9 points a night and shoot a ridiculous 50.2/41% on the season in that quarter. The bad news is there is almost no difference whether they play at home or on the road, the third quarter is their time.
Here’s the good news. The Celtics have the 9th best 3rd quarter defense in terms of opponents points at just 26.9 a night. At home? That jumps to the 2nd best opponent 3rd quarter defense allowing just 25.5 points. So as you can see, this is another area where a Warriors strength directly aligns with a Celtics strength. That should make you feel good.
Be aggressive because GS will foul you
The Warriors rank 24th in the NBA when it comes to opponents FT rate. Now I know this is an area the Celtics are AWFUL in, but if they want to win this game they have to drive the basketball and play into contact. Boogie can’t stop fouling and this is a chance for a top 5 FT% team to get easy points at the line.
Make turnovers pay
The Celts are currently 4th in the league at points off turnovers at 18.8 a night. The Warriors are a below average team at allowing opponents to score off TOs and rank 11th in the league in TOV%. That ranking jumps to 19th in Warriors losses, so let’s just put it all together. The Celtics have one of the best defenses in the league, are 6th in the league in forcing opponent turnovers, and once they do they are elite at making that team pay. Try and tell me that isn’t a recipe for success.
Pray
I mean listen, this is still GS so we’re all going to have to do our part and say a little prayer before the game starts. We can’t afford to leave any stone unturned.
There’s no denying this is a WAYYYYYY more important game for the Celtics than it is for GS. As we know they don’t give a shit about the regular season and the outcome of this game won’t make a lick of difference for them either way. That’s fine, but that is not the case for the Celtics. You look at their recent tests in IND/TOR and they rose to the occasion and took care of business. Given how well they are playing recently, this is the measuring stick game they need to win if they want to consider themselves on the right path. History tells us this game is going to be close and the Celtics have a very good chance of winning and if they do what was discussed in this blog we will all be very, very happy come Saturday night.
Some may be scared of what’s on the horizon, personally I say feed me GS. They don’t want this smoke.