Get to Know a Final Four Team: Michigan Wolverines
*Over the next couple days we’ll take an in-depth look at each Final Four team. We’ll see how they got here, their scouting report and some of their go-to plays. Most of these stats are thanks to Synergy and KenPom.*
Team: Michigan Wolverines
Record: 32-7
Made Tournament: By winning the Big 10 conference tournament – automatic bid
Path: 61-47 win over No. 14 Montana, 64-63 win over No. 6 Houston, 99-72 win over No. 7 Texas A&M, 58-54 win over No. 9 Florida State
Leading Scorer: Mo Wagner (14.3 ppg)
Leading Rebounder: Mo Wagner (6.9 rpg)
Starters: Zavier Simpson, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Mo Wagner
Key Reserves: Duncan Robinson, Jon Teske, Jaaron Simmons, Jordan Poole
Head coach: John Beilein
Offense: It’s no surprise, but Michigan continues to be one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. This year, the Wolverines rank as the 31st best offense in the coutnry per KenPom, scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions. They aren’t going to try and get out and kill you with tempo as Michigan prefers to make you work defensively, playing one of the slowest tempos in the country. That’s all part of the 2-guard motion offense that Beilein has made famous and part of how Michigan just kills you. What makes this Michigan team different offensively though is the roster makeup. You have a big in Mo Wagner that can step out and shoot. You have a backup that’s almost the complete opposite in Jon Teske. You have guards that can attack off the bounce and then a 6th man in Duncan Robinson who has one of the smoothest looking shots in the country. It’s all part of the reason as to why Michigan ranks in the 93rd percentile in the country this year scoring .998 points per possession.
It’s not going to surprise anyone, but Michigan is one of the best spot up shooting teams in the country. They ran 816 spot up sets so far this year scoring 1.064 points per possession out of those sets, which ranks in the 93rd percentile nationally. Arguably more importantly, they don’t force things out of this set. Their turnover rate out of this set is under 6%, which is pretty absurd. However, another reason Michigan is in the Final Four is because of its ability to take care of the ball. The Wolverines rank 3rd in the country in turnover percentage, turning it over just 14% of the time ranking behind only Nevada and St. Joe’s. But, back to the spot up shooting. I went back and rewatched this motion set against Florida State numerous times because it’s motion porn. You can see all the basic principles of the 5-out offense. There’s backscreens, a balanced floor, swinging the ball side to side. It’s beautiful and it’s all with a meaning. If they can’t hit someone on these cuts you see the lane opens up for Simpson to attack. He’s able to get to the middle of the lane, forces the defense to collapse and hits an open Abdur-Rahkman for three.
This is another spot up play that’s so simple but so important for Michigan. The reason they can run this is because of the mismatch that Mo Wagner is. Teams aren’t used to guarding a 6’11” guy that can step out and shoot like Wagner is capable of. Don’t get me wrong, he’s fine in the post and can score there, but he’s at his best when he’s moving and in a motion set. He’s going to be the mismatch against Loyola. Outside of his size, Wagner is put in different positions during offensive sets, but he’s most commonly placed at the top of the key. He’s used as a swingman in the sense of when the ball goes to him it’s typically to switch the floor and reset. However, here against Purdue you can see where he’s used as the vocal point here. It’s nothing crazy here, the ball starts on the wing as Abdur-Rahkman runs off a rub screen from Wagner at the free throw line. Wagner pops and swings the floor to Matthews. When this happens, Wagner turns to set another rub screen, but here’s where Michigan is so damn good. The moment Vince Edwards takes a half step up towards the 3-point line, Abdur-Rahkman reads that and cuts behind the screen. That action forces Haas to take a step lower than where he wants to be to help Edwards on the cut – Purdue isn’t going to switch here. When that happens, it’s over. Wagner pops for a wide open three. Look for this set to happen against Loyola, especially when Cameron Krutwig is in the game.
Another thing Michigan will do is put you through pick and rolls all day. They run pick and roll sets about 31% of all possessions, scoring .925 points per possession out of that set. Again, part of what makes Michigan unique here is how they run the pick and rolls. They can pop with Wagner. They can set a wing on guard screen using Livers/Robinson/Matthews as the guys setting the screen. Turnovers do go up here to about 11.5% of the time, but that’s still such an incredibly low number compared to every other team. But, Michigan will run that 5-out offense and typically have Wagner go set screens looking for the mismatch. This is where Beilein is so damn deadly. He knows how to find a mismatch and exploit it. The moment you start to adjust on the pick and roll, it becomes a pop. Michigan will also set screens all over the floor. They have sets for ball screens in the corner, wing and top of the key.
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Defense: This is where Michigan is scary this year. It’s still bizarre to hear, but Michigan is in the Final Four because of its defense. The Wolverines actually haven’t looked good offensively for three of the four games, but it’s defense, which is now ranked 4th on KenPom has carried them to a Final Four. The difference here? Two guys in Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews who absolutely just eat guys up from two different spots. Simpson does such a good job of bothering opposing point guards to just make them uncomfortable while Matthews can guard the best perimeter or small ball four. Surrounding them are good defenders as well, but it’s those two that really have forced the change in defensive success. The other important thing is having a guy like Jon Teske. Mo Wanger, for as good as he is, still gets in foul trouble. Teske is someone who can step in, grab rebounds and really protect the paint.
Michigan will run a standard man-to-man almost every possession. They are an above average team at forcing turnovers, ranking 109th in the country, but the majority of those come from Simpson bothering point guards into bad decisions. They can switch most spots, especially 2-4 positions. The othe important factor in Michigan’s defense? It’s ability to rebound. They limit you to one possession as they rank 31st in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.