Previewing the Syracuse/Duke and Texas Tech/Purdue Sweet 16 Games
We’ve made it to the Sweet 16, which is always an awesome weekend, but still feels like a weird setup. That’s only because my dumb brain can’t comprehend we’re done with daytime basketball, something that often makes me upset. Regardless we’ll go on with the previews, this time going two at a time based on the time slots of games.
No. 2 Duke vs No. 11 Syracuse – 9:37 pm, CBS – Omaha
Line: Duke -11
Time to watch the 2-3 zone vs the 2-3 zone. We’ve seen these two teams play about a month ago as Duke won 60-44 in what was an incredibly slow game. I expect something similar to that tonight. Syracuse wants to limit possessions. Offensively, it will lean on Tyus Battle/Frank Howard/Oshae Brissett but it will burn clock doing so. Going up against Duke’s 2-3 zone, I’m interested to see who Syracuse flashes to the high post. It could flash Dolzeaj there, but part of me is curious to see if they flash Brissett from the wing. On the other side of the ball, Duke has way better/more options on how to attack the zone. You can flash Bagley/Carter to the high post and run a hi-lo, throwing the lob over the back of the zone. The other thing Duke can do is flash Trent or Allen to the high post to provide a different look and another shooter in that spot. The other massive advantage for Duke? The offensive glass. Syracuse is the 240th best defensive rebounding team in the country. Part of that is the zone, part of that is just not having a great rebounder. Duke is the best offensive rebounding team in the country. How can Syracuse keep both Carter and Bagley off the glass? Expect Duke to get plenty of extra possessions and points simply by winning that battle. Expect a slow game (under) though and I’m not exactly sure where Syracuse gets its points here.
Bracket pick: Duke
ATS pick: Duke
No. 2 Purdue vs No. 3 Texas Tech – 9:57 pm, TBS – Boston
Line: Purdue -2
We have a battle of just awesome lead guards in Carsen Edwards and Keenan Evans. That’s not to take away from either team’s other players, but that’s the individual matchup I’m most excited for (sans Brunson vs Carter). Texas Tech has rotated defenses all year between the pack line and blitzing teams with pressure. The one consistent with them though is being good at running teams off the 3-point line. That’s what they are going to have to do tonight against Purdue. With Haas likely not playing (seriously, the fact he’s trying to play with a goddamned fractured elbow is insane), Purdue is going to have to change its offense a bit. Instead of playing a traditional 4-out, 1-in, look for Purdue to run more ball screens and getting Haarms into space. They’ll look to get the ball to Haarms on rolls to the rim and in space instead of letting him try to work 1v1 in the post. I think Zhaire Smith could have a big game, but more so in the fact of his ability to crash the offensive glass. Smith might be the most fun player to watch in the country with his athleticism and freak dunks. He also is a top-225 offensive rebounder in the country as a 6’5″ wing. PJ Thompson/Edwards/Mathias is going to have to make sure to keep him out of the lane when he crashes weakside rebounds. Carsen Edwards is going to have to pick his times to attack here as he can be effective at drawing the attention of Tech’s defense. Look for him to get to the free throw line off that high ball screen and kick from there instead of the dump to Haas and kick like Purdue ran earlier in the year. This has a legit chance to be the best game of the round.
Bracket pick: Texas Tech
ATS pick: Texas Tech