Get To Know The Sweet 16 Teams: West Region
We’ll be doing these for all four regions going forward starting with the Sweet 16. We’ll take a look at the rotations, how the teams got to the second weekend and why they will or won’t win their respective regions. As we move on in the tournament we’ll go more in depth with scouting reports, etc.
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines
Record: 30-7
Rotation: Charles Matthews (6’6″), Moe Wagner (6’11”), Jordan Poole (6’4″), Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (6’4″), Zavier Simpson (6’0″), Duncan Robinson (6’6″), Jon Teske (7’1″), Jaaron Simmons (6’1″), Isaiah Livers (6’7″)
How They Got Here: 1st Round win over No. 14 Montana 61-47, Round of 32 win over No. 6 Houston 64-63
Why They’ll Win The Region: You’re going to be shocked here, but defense. This is the best defensive team we’ve seen under Beilein and they have the ability to now defend at a high level. The way they run that 2-guard offense and how efficient they can be will always stay true. However, when you throw in some great halfcourt defense and make teams work on both sides of the ball now that’s a complete game changer. Another reason? John Beilein is one of the 5 best coaches remaining. He has the unique ability to draw up a play at any time in any scenario. I probably trust him out of a timeout more than anyone else left.
Why They Won’t Win The Region: This is a terrible free throw shooting team. They rank 328th in the country at 65% and that will hurt them at some point. It doesn’t help that their point guard is also one of the worst free throw shooters on the team as Simpson shoots just 51% from the line. Same goes for Charles Matthews, who might be the best its best playmaker, shoots just 56% from the free throw line. That stat could cost them a game and a trip to the Final Four.
No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record: 32-4
Rotation: Johnathan Williams (6’9″), Rui Hachimura (6’8″), Josh Perkins (6’3″), Zach Norvell (6’5″), Killian Tillie (6’10”), Jacob Larsen (6’11”), Silas Melson (6’4″), Corey Kispert (6’6″)
How They Got Here: 1st round win over No. 13 UNC Greensboro 68-64, Round of 32 Win over No. 5 Ohio State 90-84
Why They’ll Win The Region: I love the fact they they have experienced guards. That goes a long way, especially come second weekend. Melson and Perkins aren’t going to blow anyone away with stats, but they provide that steady hand. Going with that, they have great roster versatility. You can stretch teams out with Tillie and Hachimura on the floor while going big. You can also go small running Tillie at the five if you want. The fact that a great coach like Mark Few has the ability to be matchup proof is damn scary going forward.
Why They Won’t Win The Region: They need Killian Tillie to come alive here. Tillie is probably Gonzaga’s best player as he’s second on the team scoring about 13 per game. Through the first two games? He has 9 combined points. If he’s not scoring or shooting the ball well, it’s going to be hard to imagine Gonzaga getitng out of this region. He’s vital because his shooting opens up the lane for Johnathan Williams to operate.
No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies
Record: 22-12
Rotation: TJ Starks (6’2″), Tyler Davis (6’10”), DJ Hogg (6’9″), Admon Gilder (6’4″), Tonny Trocha-Moreales (6’10”), Robert Williams (6’10”), Jay Jay Chandler (6’4″), Savion Flagg (6’7″)
How They Got Here: 1st round win over No. 10 Providence 73-69, Round of 32 win over No. 2 UNC 86-65
Why They’ll Win The Region: It’s going to be tough for any team to matchup with the two guys in the post in Robert Williams and Tyler Davis. This is especially true with Robert Williams buying into his role with this team and letting Davis be the go-to offensive guy in the post. While that’s happening, Williams is simply grabbing all the rebounds and blocking almost all the shots. Let’s also throw in here that they are healthy (at least who is left on the roster) and DJ Hogg has played extremely well for the last two games. Hogg can be a complete mismatch as a 6’9″ guard with one of the prettiest shooting strokes out there.
Why They Won’t Win The Region: There are two glaring weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball. Can they take care of the ball and can they hit free throws? They rank 231st in the country in turnover percentage while also ranking 320th in free throw percentage. That’s uh, concerning to say the least. Throw in the fact they are going up against a good defense in Michigan, can they take care of the ball against a guy like Zavier Simpson who can really bother you?
No. 9 Florida State Seminoles
Record: 22-11
Rotation: Mfiondu Kabengele (6″8″), Terance Mann (6’6″), Braian Angola (6’6″), PJ Savoy (6’4″), Phil Cofer (6’8″), Trent Forest (6’5″), CJ Walker (6’1″), MJ Walker (6’6″), Christ Koumadje (7’4″), Ike Obiagu (7’0″)
How They Got Here: Round 1 win over No. 8 Missouri 67-54, Round of 32 win over No. 1 Xavier 75-70
Why They’ll Win The Region: This team has a ton of depth and that means a lot in a one-game tournament. They aren’t as reliant on just one person as some other teams are and the fact Leonard Hamilton can go to so many different looks is vital here. Throw in the fact they can run that extended man-to-man they like and don’t have to worry about foul trouble is key, simply because they can become more aggressive.
Why They Won’t Win The Region: They don’t do a great job of defending the 3-point line and the fact they are going up against Gonzaga and possibly Michigan can kill them there. Florida State is letting teams score 34% of its points from the 3-point line, but they are letting teams shooting 37.6% of all field goal attempt from behind the line. That extended man to man can get beat for open looks and if that happens, Gonzaga can take advantage.