NCAA Tournament Mailbag: What The Hell Happened In The Round of 32?
I plan on doing this after every round, just to give another way to recap. There were a lot of good question and things to get into, so I don’t want to waste a lot of time leading into it. As always you can find me @barstoolreags and submit questions that way. Let’s get right into it.
I actually think it’s Gonzaga, who gets the nod just barely over Michigan. This Gonzaga team has been flying a bid underrated this year and while they’ve played two close NCAA Tournament games, this team is really solid. I love the versatility on the roster, especially with players like Killian Tillie and Rui Hachimura, who lets Few take advantage of mismatches. You’re seeing a guy like Zach Norvell starting to hit big shots. They have experience at guard in Melson and Perkins. They have a top-10 coach in America. They have a guy in Johnathan Williams who can go get buckets. Now, part of this is also the draw. Do I think a team like Texas Tech is set up to win a title? Yes, but they have to go through Purdue and then Villanova/WVU just to make the Final Four.
Well, it’s pointless to try and guess what we might have the rest of the tournament based on what we’ve seen so far. But, my favorite individual matchups for the Sweet 16 include:
Jevon Carter vs Jalen Brunson
Keenan Evans vs Carsen Edwards
Mo Wagner vs Tyler Davis/Bob Williams
Mostly because zone defense is trash. There are a few other ‘real’ reasons though. One, coaches are just set in their ways and the most stubborn people on the planet. If they run man forever, they don’t want to go to a zone. They think it will hurt them in recruiting, development, whatever. Let’s remember this also takes players buying into a system and properly running a zone. Most of the time they aren’t running a zone in high school or the AAU circuit and are playing man. In order to successfully run a zone you need to implement it and actually practice. Zones include rotations that are different than man-to-man and understanding space more than just guarding a player. The other thing is believe it or not this year, points per possession is less in man defense. Teams are running man an average of 83% of the time this year, giving up .87 points per possession while zone is about 17% of the time with an average of .936 points per possession. Now, I get the obsession with zone as Syracuse is in the Sweet 16 and Duke has moved to it, but it’s not the answer.
I would say it lived up to expectations considering it played exactly to seed. I mean this was a team that exceeded expectations all year and if you asked Ohio State fans before the season started that they’d be a 5 seed and lose a close game to No. 4 seed Gonzaga in the Round of 32, everyone signs up for it. I mean how far did most people expect them to advance? Maybe to the Sweet 16? Maybe the Ohio State fan or grad has them in the Final Four? But, I think realistically, this was meeting expectations, no more, no less based on what we knew about them leading into the NCAA Tournament.
His plan on offense should be to continue to run the 2-guard offense. You bring Wagner up for the ball screens and pops. You bring him up to be in the middle of the 2-guard offense and draw one of the bigs away from the rim. Here’s what’s going to be interesting in this game – you can’t really zone Michigan. They are too good of a shooting and passing team to go into the 2-3 zone A&M has run. If you’re as skilled as a team like Michigan, you make the other team adapt to you. Just run your standard offense and force A&M to adjust. They’ll have to put someone out on Charles Matthews who can attack off the bounce then. I mean, we can just go look at what Michigan did to Michigan State as evidence as what to expect against another team with a plethora of bigs.
No and it’s a huge pet peeve of mine that we use this as a barometer. I’m pretty sure no one was screaming the SEC was the best conference in America last year when it made up 3 of the 8 Elite Eight teams and rightfully so. With a one-game elimination tournament being so predicated on matchups and not having an off night, it’s pretty dumb to make assumptions about a conference one way or another. You can use the NCAA Tournament as part of the overall resume with the regular season and everything like that, but, yeah, I hate using this or any challenges to determine what conference is ‘better.’
I think it’s a little bit of both. We’re seeing the perfect mix of it this year. The freshman class wasn’t super deep despite having a really good top of the class. The real trend though is with the upperclassmen. We’re seeing more guys test the water and decide to go pro because of the new format – which is a step in the right direction. What’s happening though is we’re seeing a decline in top teams this year as it’s been stated. Now, do I think 16s are going to beat 1s on year out basis? No. But, I think we’ll see 1s lose in the Round of 32 more often.