Previewing the Xavier/FSU and Marshall/WVU Second Round NCAA Tournament Games
We’re onto the Round of 32 and the scheduling gets weird here. You have two games pretty much stand on their own to start us off and then from 5-8:00 it’s multi-screen time and keeping up with numerous games at once. So with that in mind I’ll be changing up how I do the previews. I’ll do the first one standing alone and then break it up to either 2 or 4 games at a time.
No. 1 Xavier vs No. 9 Florida State – 8:40 pm, TNT
Line: Xavier -5.5
A rematch of last year’s Round of 32 game in which Xavier just absolutely dominated Florida State in Orlando. That game was a masterpiece by Chris Mack, who rotated defensive looks on nearly every possession while letting Trevon Bluiett go to work offensively. Yes, the main group of guys from last year’s Florida State team are gone, but Leonard Hamilton still has the same schemes. I’d be surprised to see him run any of the matchup zone that they run, but they will extend their man-to-man defense and switch screens. That means there can be some mismatches for a guy like JP Macura or Trevon Bluiett to get into the lane. What you really need to keep an eye on though is if Naji Marshall is able to play. The freshman wing for Xavier has blossomed into a key part of this team – as he’s arguably its best defender and is starting to hit those corner threes. He’s been battling a back injury that limited him to 16 minutes against Texas Southern. Rebounding is going to be so important in this game. Florida State is a top-60 offensive rebounding team in the country while being one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. On the flip side Xavier is 14th in defensive rebounding and 131st in offensive rebounding.
Bracket pick: Xavier
ATS pick: Xavier
No. 5 West Virginia vs No. 13 Marshall – 9:40 pm, TBS
Line: West Virginia -12.5
Jon Elmore vs Jevon Carter? Yes, please. All the way here for this, please. Oh, let’s not forget that Bob Huggins and Dan D’Antoni aren’t necessarily fond of each other. Back in 2014 there was a war of words of sorts between the two coaches, resulting in Huggins saying they don’t care about scheduling Marshall because it’s not a rivalry for the Mountaineers. But, back to this game. It’s going to be quite interesting to see if West Virginia can properly press Marshall. The Thundering Herd are absolutely excellent against the press, scoring 1.087 points per possession which ranks in the 96th percentile nationally. A large part of that is due to Jon Elmore, the guard that dropped 27 against Wichita State in the first round. Remember, Elmore is the only player in the country to average 22/6/6 this year. Keep an eye, as always, on how refs call this game. Elmore does a great job of drawing fouls as West Virginia is one of the most foul prone teams in the country. This one will be a ton of fun.
Bracket pick: WVU
ATS pick: Marshall