Previewing the Third Window of Thursday's College Basketball Games
I haven’t been able to pinpoint it exactly, but there’s just a different feeling when we get to the two night sessions of the NCAA Tournament vs the first two sessions. This could just be my dumb brain but I needed to get that off my chest. Either way here we are entering the third window of the Thursday games.
I’m going to try and break down these previews to four games at a time so they aren’t as clunky and less than 4,000 words. I’ll be making picks for every single NCAA Tournament game, but let me know what you like, what you hate and talk about the games @barstoolreags.
No. 1 Villanova vs No. 16 Radford – 6:50 pm, TNT
Line: Villanova -22.5
I don’t want to spend too much time on a 1/16 game because they are always sort of pointless to discuss. I mean until we literally see a 16 seed win, I’m just not going to buy into it. So instead we’ll talk about Villanova. The Wildcats are again dependent on how they shoot the ball. But, it’s not in the sense of that’s all they can. It’s more how they close teams out. We saw them at Creighton miss five wide open looks from three with about 6 minutes to go. Hitting one or two of those and it’s over. Instead it led to an overtime loss. That’s going to be key to watch here in the NCAA Tournament. The reason as to why I trust them more? They can get creative with their offense. They’ll invert it and throw Brunson in the post. They can go 4 guards around Paschall or Spellman. They can even go big with Cosby-Roundtree playing with the other two bigs.
Bracket pick: Villanova
ATS pick: Villanova, I guess
No. 5 Kentucky vs No. 12 Davidson – 7:10 pm, CBS
Line: Kentucky -6
One of the more intriguing 5/12 games, especially today. You have two completely different teams and schemes here. On one hand you have Davidson, who wants to slow the game down, run the Bob McKillop motion offense and beat you from the 3-point line. Kentucky wants to run, pound the ball inside and defend the hell out of you. That’s why this game is going to be awesome. The biggest thing I’m watching for outside of Davidson shooting the ball from three is rebounding. Davidson is just an awful rebounding team while Kentucky wants to crash the offensive glass. This is where a guy like PJ Washington can have a big game or someone like Nick Richards can be valuable. For Davidson, they attack with the 3-headed monster of Jon Axel Gudmundsson, Peyton Aldridge and Kellan Grady. I think Kentucky’s length should be able to bother Davidson, but it’s going to be more important to communicate. Davidson’s motion offense is predicated on cuts and reading the defense. If you are overplaying, it’s a backdoor. Kentucky doesn’t really have that rim protector that they’ve had in years past to prevent that. It also doesn’t help Jarred Vanderbilt is out for Kentucky tonight.
Bracket pick: Kentucky
ATS pick: Davidson
No. 6 Houston vs No. 11 San Diego State – 7:20 pm, TBS
Line: Houston -4
Rob Gray vs Trey Kell is something I’m quite very here for. Gray has been one of the more underrated stars in college basketball the last couple of years while Kell just destroyed the MWC Tournament. Both teams are fairly balanced, but SDSU is more defensive focused. Houston is top-30 in both AdjO and AdjD, while SDSU is 70 in AdjO and 36 in AdjD. That said, San Diego State hasn’t had a full roster for the majority of the year. They’ve battled injuries and suspensions and we finally saw what they look like at full strength. One of the small things to really keep an eye on – how Rob Gray crashes the offensive glass. He likes to follow his own shot quite a bit and really goes crashing from outside. That’s fine and all, but if he doesn’t get the rebound and there’s not a proper rotation back from one of the wings, it’s an easy run out. I say this because San Diego State is a top-50 defensive rebounding team in the country (Houston is 17th offensively). If SDSU control that side of the glass they win.
Bracket pick: San Diego State
ATS pick: San Diego State
No. 3 Texas Tech vs No. 14 Stephen F. Austin – 7:27 pm, TruTV
Line: Texas Tech -11
This game is based on one thing. Can Stephen F. Austin score the ball? They are ranked 177th in AdjO while Texas Tech is ranked 3rd in AdjD. We’ve seen Chris Beard mix up his defense too as he runs pack line, a press, a trapping press and a trapping halfcourt defense. It’s actually incredibly awesome to watch and part of the reason as to why I think Beard is a top coach in America. Throw in the fact that they have Keenan Evans, who does have a little Shabazz in him in the sense that he can put an offense on his back. I think you’ll see him look to drive a lot here tonight with how much SFA fouls (last in the country in FTA/FGA).
Bracket pick: Texas Tech
ATS pick: Texas Tech