Previewing the Early Window of Thursday's NCAA Tournament Games
It’s here! The NCAA Tournament is finally here. Sure, we had a couple days of foreplay with the First Four, but now it’s sexy time. The NCAA knew what it was doing with this schedule too. Giving us Trae Young and Rhode Island right off the bat is a pretty fun way to start the tournament.
I’m going to try and break down these previews to four games at a time so they aren’t as clunky and less than 4,000 words. I’ll be making picks for every single NCAA Tournament game, but let me know what you like, what you hate and talk about the games @barstoolreags.
No. 7 Rhode Island vs No. 10 Oklahoma – 12:15 pm (CBS)
Line: URI -2
Rhode Island is one of the teams on the shortlist in terms of being dependent on how refs call the game. Rhode Island is physical. They grab and bump you, nowhere near the same as like a West Virginia or South Carolina, but they want to beat you up defensively. If refs call the game close, that means Trae Young will live at the free throw line. URI ranks 308th in the country in giving up free throw attempts per field goal attempts. Young is excellent at drawing contact off the bounce. Outside of that, just keep an eye on the body language of Oklahoma. This is a team that has absolutely fallen apart down the stretch and it goes hand in hand with how others outside of Young are shooting the ball. When Oklahoma was rolling early in the year guys like Manek and McGusty were hitting shots. That’s gone away. URI does an excellent job of running teams off the 3-point line, this is mostly due to the aggressive wing defense they like to play. That’s going to be the key here. If URI can run Oklahoma off the 3-point line it wins. If Oklahoma is able to get clean looks then we’re talking about something different here. It feels like everyone in the world is taking URI here.
Bracket Pick: Oklahoma
ATS pick: Oklahoma
No. 3 Tennessee vs No. 14 Wright State – 12:40 pm (TruTV)
Line: Tennessee -13.5
Tennessee is coming off that loss to Kentucky in the SEC title game, but before that won six in a row. Tennessee is known for its defense, ranking 4th in AdjD this year on KenPom. They don’t do it by forcing a bunch of turnovers or trying to blitz you, but rather they want to switch a lot and use pressure up top. In the post they play physical, nothing crazy in the sense of scheme. That said, Wright State is atrocious offensively, so look for them to completely slow the game down here. They want this to be a slow game, minimal possessions, forcing Tennessee to work for shots. Wright State does have guys like Loudon Love and Parker Ernsthausen that can play 1v1 in the post against Schofield and Williams. Like I mentioned, expect this game to be slow, low scoring and ugly at times. That’s how both teams want in. The difference will be the fact Tennessee has a star in Grant Williams and enough guard depth to try and open up the game. For Wright State it will all depend on Grant Benzinger, who is its leading scorer but also takes care of the ball (just 7% turnover rate).
Bracket pick: Tennessee
ATS Picks: Wright State
No. 4 Gonzaga vs No. 13 UNC-Greensboro – 1:30 pm (TNT)
Line: Gonzaga -12.5
It’s funny how things change in a year for Gonzaga. Last year the Bulldogs were the No. 1 seed that everyone expected to lose before the Final Four and now this year they are the popular No. 4 team to get there. They start in the early session tomorrow against UNC-Greensboro in a game that is actually a decent matchup for them. UNCG’s best offensive player is Francis Alonso – a 6’3″ guard that is shooting 41% from three. Gonzaga will give him a couple of different looks with Josh Perkins, Silas Melson and Zach Norvell all getting a shot on him. That’s what I like a lot about this Gonzaga team. There’s a lot of roster versatility, especially when you look up front with guys like Rui Hachimura and Killian Tillie. This game will come down to the 3-point line. UNCG wants to shoot a bunch of threes (ranking 24th in the country in 3PA/FGA). If they are able to get Alonso or Demetrius Troy open looks, they have a shot. On the flip side, I think you see a huge game from Tillie. He’s going to have an advantage to hit a bunch of threes due to UNCG’s defense. They give up a bunch of looks from three, but try to make them contested. That’s tough to do against a 6’10” dude.
Bracket pick: Gonzaga
ATS pick: Gonzaga
No. 1 Kansas vs No. 16 Penn – 2:00 pm (TBS)
Line: Kansas -14
It’s quite simple here. Who wins the 3-point battle. That’s what it comes down to. Kansas is plying without Udoka Azubuike, which means Penn may actually get some looks for AJ Brodeur inside. I am interested to see how Kansas decides to match up with Brodeur when he’s in the game with Max Rothschild. The difference is Penn actually defends the 3-point ball pretty well. They give up looks on just 32.8 per field goal attempts, which is 38th in the country. If they can bother Kansas enough to run them off the 3-point line, especially avoiding giving up open looks to Svi, they may be able to hang around. The problem here that I keep thinking about is the fact that this game is taking place in Wichita, which is all but a home game for Kansas. Assuming Graham defends Darnell Foreman, keep an eye on Caleb Wood. He could find some weaknesses in the Kansas defense.
Bracket Pick: Kansas
ATS pick: Penn