Barstool’s Champions League Preview – The “R16 Reckoning (Part 3 of 4)” Edition
Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies
Hi haters,
THANKS BE TO GAWD IT IS FINALLY TUESDAY, amirite?
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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Reminder of the scores from the first two second legs and schedule for this week:
**NOTE: GAMES KICK OFF AN HOUR LATER THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF DAYLIGHT SAVINGS (OR SOMETHING)**
Lotta focus is on tomorrow’s big-swinging-D matchup between Chelsea and Barcelona but as far as overall competition goes today is the most interesting of the four individual days of R16 games since both ties hang in the balance… so without further ado, let’s take a little gander at them.
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United [-165]
Sevilla [+500]
Draw [+280]
It’s time for a quick heart to heart. [Trigger warning for sensitive Red Devils fans.] United is the ugly guy who pulled nothing but hot chicks. They never (or at least rarely) are much to look at. But somehow, some way they get find a way to get the job done. For instance, as one could have gleaned from my weekly power rankings, for the better part of this year I would have taken Liverpool or Tottenham (pre-Kane injury) over United all day every day at a neutral site. And yet here we are with only eight games left in the regular season and the Red Devils have a four- and five-point lead on those respective clubs.
A lot of United fans will be mad online after reading that. Don’t be. Do me a favor and at least pretend to have a little self-awareness. When someone says Jozay’s United is very good as winning ugly, there is no point in fighting it. Own it. Not everybody can win and look good doing it the way City has game in and game out this season. To take another example, Spurs have a penchant for losing (or at least not-winning) beautifully. Tons of possession, neat passing, lots of dangerous-looking crosses, plenty of shots in the direction of goal…. check, check, check, check. The club did exactly that – twice – against Juventus over the past few weeks, and can you guess what playing attractive soccer has got the club? That’s right, a pretty awesome new banner for the rafters but other than that a nice view of the Champions League quarterfinals from the couch and a whole lot of jack shit.
Results matter, full stop. In fact they ultimately are what dictate the narrative. United did not play all that well against Liverpool this past weekend. Defensively they were good, holding the likes of Mo Salah and Bobby Firmino in check for an entire game is no easy feat. However, the Red Devils were dominated in possession and failed to do much of anything offensively apart from two long balls that Liverpool defended exceptionally poorly.
And yet, because United came out with the win, the story of the game was how Mourinho’s “intelligent” or “pragmatic” tactics got the job done. If a couple plays go another way – say Liverpool gets one or more of several close penalty shouts and/or Virgil Van Dijk doesn’t flub a header right in front of net – the narrative just as easily could have been about Dear Leader’s “negative” tactics yet again.
Which brings us to today’s game against Sevilla. How will United approach a tricky but winnable game at home? Fate may have conspired to answer one of the biggest question marks coming in as Paul Pogba, though included on the team sheet, seems “questionable at best” given the leg injury (aka “gash”) he reportedly picked up in training last week. His absence would likely mean United will look to play a little more directly. Probably not quite to the extent they did against Liverpool this weekend, in part because Sevilla is not as good and won’t dominate possession, nor does the Spanish side have anywhere near as much firepower for United to contend with.
One issue with playing “Route 1” soccer is that it often is reliant on forcing (or at least hoping for) a mistake from your opponent. The good news then is that Sevilla’s backline is (a) not all that great to begin with, especially against non-minnows – they have conceded 20 goals in six games against the other top four clubs in Spain [note: 3+ goals/game is v v bad] – and (b) will have to be shuffled a bit because of an injuries to Jesus Navas and Sebastien Corchia, and the ineligibility of usual replacement Miguel Layun at right back.
So is it going to be a beautiful game? Probably not. But is United going to go home with the win/chick when all is said and done? Probably. Winning ugly is still winning. Embrace it. United to win 2-1.
Ugly + sex >>>>> beautiful + youporn
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Roma [-160]
Shakhtar [+390]
Draw [+280]
Should be a sneakily entertaining game to watch – if you can find a way to watch it. Won’t be televised on one of the usual Fox Sports channels because reasons but should be available streaming on fubo or facebook if you know how those work. Roma are getting healthy (and/or available) at the right time, with ex-Spurs legend Federico Fazio and muuuuuuch more importantly Edin Dzeko having gotten some extra rest after being suspended for this past weekend’s game (3-0 win over Torino).
The Ukrainians are most definitely not weak though, and have more than just a puncher’s chance after reeling off five straight solid wins since coming back from their months-long winter break. In fact, Shakhtar’s odds look miiiiiighty enticing. Just can’t pull the trigger though. Roma’s win AT Napoli in a game their opponents needed desperately was too impressive, plus Shakhtar has been poor on the road in Champions League. Indeed they beat Napoli at home 2-1 in their first group stage meeting – sound familiar? – before losing 3-0 in Italy a couple months later. Sometimes the dots are too obvious not to be connected. Roma to win 2-0.
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[Sidenote: is it a good or bad thing that my immediate reaction to writing that prediction out loud was this:
I’m gonna trust the dumbness of my brain and assume it’s a good thing. Scared money don’t make money!]
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Another bigggggggggggg day tomorrow. Chelsea head to Barcelona knotted at 1-1, meaning the Blues need to score at least one goal at Camp Nou just to have a mathematical chance of moving on. Not a great situation, to be sure… but better spot to be in than, say, Tottenham.
Should be an entertaining couple days ahead either way. Blessed be these glorious days of bountiful Champions League. Do yourself a favor and drink it in as much as possible. We will miss it come the dog days of summer… though thankfully this year is a little different since we will have the World Cup to watch and enjoy, albeit while trying not to drink all the bleach every time a casual fan asks you when the USMNT plays. But I digress. Let’s focus on today, and I’ll be back in the same place/time tomorrow you chuckleheads.
Holler,
Samuel Army