2018 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: South Region
I’ll be looking at each region over the next couple of days as the NCAA Tournament gets ready to tip. We’ll look at matchups to watch, previews, picks, players to watch and what team could be a sleeper to come out of each region. I’ll be releasing my entire bracket on Wednesday or Thursday morning so there won’t be a ton of revealing here.
South Region
Storylines:
1. Can a coach finally get to the Final Four: This list has a crew of guys in Tony Bennett, Sean Miller and Mick Cronin who are all on the shortlist of coaches that are due for a trip to the Final Four. Bennett and Miller catch the heat a bit more than Cronin for not being there and this year we get all 3 in the same region. Whether it’s their system (as often talked about with Bennett or Cronin) or not reaching full potential with great talent (as it is with Miller) these coaches just haven’t been able to get to a Final Four.
2. The Marcus Foster revenge game vs Kansas State: Almost every year we get at least one first round matchup that has some sort of matchup within the game to keep an eye on. Typically this is a coach vs his former team or a coach vs his assistant, this year we get Marcus Foster, who is a borderline All-American this year going up against his former team. Foster spent two years at Kansas State while being the freshman in the league and a preseason All-Big 12 team for his sophomore year. Foster was dismissed by Bruce Weber following that year before ending up at Creighton. Now, we get Foster vs Kansas State. Yes, please.
3. What Kentucky team shows up?: Heading into the bracket show people were already talking about Kentucky as a potential favorite to make the Final Four. That was due to the performance in the SEC Tournament where the Wildcats led for all but 5 minutes in three games despite not having Jarred Vanderbilt. It looked like yet another year where a Calipari coached team was peaking at the right time. However, they got paired up with Virginia and Arizona on the same side of the bracket and that feeling has started to cool. We’ve seen Kentucky look like they can be a Final Four team but also one that could lose to Davidson.
Players to Watch:
There are a couple ways to look at this, but I’m looking at this strictly as an intrigue factor. These are players that could be lottery picks in the NBA Draft, could put a team on their back or are just flat out good players.
1. Deandre Ayton (Arizona) – I mean do we have to go in depth on Ayton here? We all know who he is, right? He’s the monster masquerading as a freshman playing college basketball. The dude is probably the most talented player in the country and would be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft if I’m picking there.
2. Kellan Grady (Davidson) – Grady is the third guy people tend to talk about on Davidson as it has Peyton Aldridge and Jon Axel Gudmundsson. Grady is a freshman that is 18 per game and is shooting 38% from three. He has good size at 6’5″ and someone who can bother some guys defensively. But, this is a guy wired to score. We’ll see him go up against some of those longer guards at Kentucky, but don’t be surprised if Grady drop 20 on them.
3. Gary Clark (Cincinnati) – Clark is a guy who isn’t going to put up gaudy numbers or blow you away when you look at a box score and that’s fine with him. He does a little bit of everything. He won player of the year and defensive player of the year in the AAC doing just that. He plays alongside Kyle Washington in the front court for Cincinnati and has the ability to step out and shoot the ball, which keeps the lane open for guys like Cumberland and Evans.
4. Caleb Martin (Nevada) – Caleb and his brother Cody transferred from NC State to Nevada a year ago and the redshirt transfer year has shown valuable. Caleb was just named MWC Player of the Year and averaging over 19 points and 5 rebounds per game. With Lindsey Drew out for the tournament, the ball will be in Caleb’s hands even more and look for him to be in attack mode.
5. Lonnie Walker (Miami) – Lonnie Walker came into the year with incredibly high expectations. He was a McDonald’s All-American from Reading and expected lottery pick. He battled back from a meniscus injury to be a more consistent player down the stretch. Walker likes to attack off the bounce and while he won’t kill you from outside, you have to respect his ability to shoot still. He is good enough to a win a game by himself.
Other Names: Devon Hall (Virginia), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky), Clayton Custer (Loyola), Dean Wade (Kansas State), Khyri Thomas (Creighton), Mo Bamba (Texas)
Best 1st Round Matchup – No. 12 Davidson vs No. 5 Kentucky
Davidson is playing as well as anyone in the country, but what makes this game so intriguing is the difference in style of play. Davidson plays a slower pace, running an incredible motion offense only to beat you by three. Kentucky isn’t known for shooting the ball, with a bigger lineup that defends the 3-point ball incredibly well. Something is going to have to give there. Kentucky is also playing without Jarred Vanderbilt. On the flip side, can Davidson rebound a ball? They are a terrible defensive rebounding team and will need to keep Kentucky off the glass.
Most likely to reach Final Four:
1. Virginia
2. Arizona
3. Kentucky
4. Cincinnati
5. Tennessee
6. Miami
7. Nevada
8. Loyola
9. Creighton
10. Davidson
11. Kansas State
12. Texas
13. Buffalo
14. Wright State
15. Georgia State
16. UMBC
Teams underseeded: No. 4 Arizona, No. 5 Kentucky
Teams overseeded: None
Matchups you want to see: No. 4 Arizona vs No. 5 Kentucky – I mean pretty simple here. This is the second round matchup you want to see. Yes, fans of Virginia and Cincinnati will want to see an Elite Eight between the two teams, but no casual fan wants to watch a game with 50 possessions. Arizona/Kentucky gives us arguably the most talent on the floor. There are some other potential intriguing matchups like Nevada/Cincinnati in the second round or if Texas gets hot and we see a Mo Bamba vs Deandre Ayton individual matchup.
Most likely first round upset: No. 11 Loyola over No. 6 Miami