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Who To Bet In The US Open: Your Full Breakdown

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The US Open is here and you know what that means? Daytime gambling during the week. Those five words are maybe the best five words in life. You’re stuck at work pleading for Thursday night to get here for college football, and by the grace of God we have the US Open to distract us from losing our minds. This year is WIDE OPEN. In this day and age when everyone is healthy there are probably 4-5 men that have a real chance of winning the whole thing, but this year is completely different. Here’s why

Who’s Not Here

Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Stan Wawrinka aren’t playing due to injury. Without three of the top men in the world, the US Open is completely up for grabs. You’d think that would mean a cake walk for Fed and Nadal, but the US Open decided to absolutely fuck them with their draw. Federer’s region is incredibly hard and it’s tough to see him making it out alive. Nadal as well, and if they manage to reach the Semi’s, both are on a path to play each other before the final. So who has the best odds? Who should you be betting on? Let’s dive in baby!

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So Federer is the odds on favorite because he’s won two majors this year and he’s the GOAT. It would still shock me if he pulled this one out. I think taking Fed at +150 is wasting your money. There’s just better value out there. Nadal at +300 is a little better, solely because his region is fairly easy until the final eight where the sizzling hot fire Grigor Dimitrov awaits. In Federer’s region there’s Dominic Thiem (6), Bautista Agut (11), Nick Kyrgios (14), and Juan Martin Del Potro (24). That’s a big middle finger to the Swiss King and I don’t like it one bit.

Alexander Zverev (+450) is the best bet in the US Open. His path to the semi-finals is LAUGHABLE. John Isner? Jack Sock? Sam Querrey? Giles Muller? He might play left handed in some of these matches for Christ’s sake. If you’re taking a guy in a futures bet you always want the easiest path to get as far as possible. As long as you have a dog in the fight in the semi’s that’s all you can ask for. I think it’s a virtual lock Zverev gets there. He comes into Flushing having won two hard court tournaments recently (Citi Open and Canadian Masters) and lost a quick round of 32 match in Cincy to Tiafoe. So what does that mean? Zverev is fresh as can be heading into the 2017 US Open while also playing the best tennis of his young career. Who would Zverev face in that semi final matchup?

Here is where the wide openness comes into play. With Andy Murray bowing out last minute because of his ongoing hip injury (he’s a whiny bitch) that opened the door for players like Marin Cilic (5), Jo Wili Tsonga (8) Lucas Pouille (16) Pablo Carreno Busta (12) and David Ferrer (21). Don’t sleep on the little beast Ferrer making a run here. He’s changed the way he’s played of late, and it’s paid dividends on the court. He had a strong showing in Cincy, beating Steve Johnson, Carreno Busta, and Thiem in convincing fashion. He took Kyrgios to two tie breakers in the semis but gave the Aussie all he could handle in the match.

So who should you be betting on? My picks would be Zverev (+450) Dimitrov (+1400) and Kyrgios (+1600). I’ve already gone over my love for Zverev but I also like Nicky K and Baby Fed to have big break through tournaments. Both players are coming in feeling really good about themselves on the court. You almost get the sense Kyrgios sorta has his mental game in check (until he implodes in the first round and fight the head chair ump). This fucking guy has so much talent that if he cared enough he could run through this entire thing and win his first grand slam with ease. Dimitrov comes into this red hot, having just won the Cincinnati Masters (beating Kyrgios in the finals). I think either of those guys at +1400 or +1600 are great value bets to put a few bucks down on for the hell of it. Serious money should be put on Zverev.

Now this isn’t Roger Federer’s number one fan losing confidence in the Swiss King. No fucking shot. I think he can beat anyone in the world and could very well win this tournament without dropping a set. That’s because he’s the undisputed GOAT and no one can touch his greatness. But if you consider his extremely tough draw and his current odds, I just don’t think it’s worth it. If Roger won #20 in New York I would be in heaven. I might even cry. But any bets put on him will be individual matches in a few rounds when the odds become reasonable.

Individual Day 1 Underdogs To Keep An Eye On 

John Isner (-600) vs. Pierre Hugues-Herbert (+450)

These odds are just low enough for me to smell something fishy. The 10 seeded Isner has been playing a lot better this Summer since changing his returning approach. He’s maybe had his best season of his fairly disappointing career, but Herbert being just +450 has my attention. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing but don’t be surprised if this is a lot closer than it appears it should be.

Sam Querrey (-305) vs. Giles Simon (+235)

Simon is head to head 4-2 (3-0 hard courts) against the American and the odds here lead me to believe this is going to be TIGHT. Simon is a tricky motherfucker and is a grinder through and through. He’ll give Sam all he can handle and is definitely worth a play today.

Jack Sock (-270) vs. Jordan Thompson (+210)

These two met earlier this year in a little Austrailia vs. USA qualifier. Thompson prevailed in four sets and I’ve got good feeling he’s going to be a problem later today against Sock. The American Sock has lost three of his last four matches entering today and is always a good bet for inconsistency on the courts. He has flashes of greatness (making it to the final 16 last year in the US Open) but also shades of atrociousness (losing in the 2nd round of Wimbledon to an absolute nobody) so there’s always a chance the bad version shows up. I like Thompson’s chances here and would roll with the dog.

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