Celtics Playoff Preview: Washington Wizards
Just as the ink was beginning to dry on the Celtics first round win, they’re right back at it in just a few hours against those pesky Washington Wizards. A series that is expected to be quite different from the six games in Chicago, it’s no secret there is obviously no love lost between these two teams. They flat out don’t like each other and have certainly been vocal about that fact. But what does that mean in terms of basketball? Here’s what we do know. After the trade deadline the Wizards were SUPPOSED to jump ahead of the Celtics and stay there (I think they spent a total of 24 hours ahead of BOS when it was all said and done). So there’s that. Before we dive into this matchup, for those who may not know let’s take a look at the current Wizards roster
A slight talent difference from the last series if you ask me. For example, this Wizards team finished the season 3rd in the NBA in team FG%, 2nd in FGM, 5th in points, 6th in assists, and 2nd in steals. If anyone tries to downplay their offensive ability, slap that person in the face. The Wizards can score with the best teams in the league, and it all starts with their backcourt.
All eyes will be on this backcourt matchup obviously. Having said that, Isaiah vs Wall this season hasn’t been as one sided as some may want you to believe
and while you can look at the regular season to try and predict what might happen in a series, I think it’s important to mention that John Wall has been MUCH better as of late. As in probably the best playoff player in the East not named Lebron better. The approach the Celtics used in the regular season was to make Wall a jump shooter from midrange, where he shot 38% from 15-19ft and 33% from 20-24 ft. Well in their previous series against ATL, those percentages have jumped to 47.6% and 56.3%. The way Wall is shooting the ball, you can’t dare him to beat you from this area right now. If the Celtics are going to have Isaiah play Wall for any stretch of time, I fully expect Wall to change his approach and instead of settling for jumpers, use his size advantage against Isaiah to get to the rim. Sort of like this.
If Thomas is able to hold his ground just slightly, and prevent this from being a layup and more of a postup shot, he’ll have success. On the year Wall shot just 23.8% in post up situations, so it’ll be up to the Celtics to decide if they want to over help on this mismatch. We saw Isaiah play respectable defense on Butler at times when he went with the same move, but let’s be honest. The Celtics are going to move Isaiah to someone like Otto Porter and use their best perimeter defenders on Wall/Beal.
And this is where the true key to the series is for me. The Wizards love to run Beal off screens.
When you watch how Beal gets open, it looks very similar to how the Celtics use Bradley. This matters because if you figure Jae will be on Beal for the most part, he is going to have to do a much better job fighting through these screens, which isn’t necessarily his strong suit. Jae is solid defender, but has trouble with guards at times. If you allow Beal to get you on his hip, you’re in for a world of trouble. The Celtics defensive communication on hedging and switching is going to be absolutely crucial because Beal has that microwave type game. Before you know it you blink and he has 15 points. We’ve already seen it when these two teams played earlier this year.
Aside from keeping these two players relatively in check, it doesn’t stop there. If you thought Robin Lopez gave the Celtics physicality issues, you can bet your ass Marcin Gortat is going to take that to another level. Perhaps the lineup changes from Stevens will help keep Gortat in control like it did with Lopez, but there is no arguing Gortat is the better player. This is going to be a series filled with physical challenges at the rim, hard screens, and when the Celtics allow Gortat to be the aggressor, they usually struggle. Containing Gortat is going to be key, and in the four games this year he finished with 11/7.5, including an average of 4 OREB a game. If the Celts are going to choose to over help on the WSH guards to attack the paint, their rotations are going to have to be crisp because if not Gortat is going to have about a billion easy dunks.
In what might be the biggest deciding factor in this series, how the Celtics are able to keep their emotions in check is going to go a long way in determining how this series goes. Tensions are already high and we haven’t even played a second yet. The mental strength of this team after they don’t get a call, or WSH goes on a run, or when there is a hard foul on someone like Isaiah is going to be beyond important. This team cannot afford guys like Jae or Marcus to lose focus mentally and end up doing something stupid, either through their actions or their basketball decisions.
Now for the Celtics, there is reason to be optimistic heading into this series. Obviously the Wizard’s strength (perimeter offense) happens to align with the Celtics strength (perimeter defense). When looking at the rosters, the Wizards aren’t as deep. They do have scorers like Bogdanovic, but that’s really it. It’s not wild to say this is an advantage for the Celts. Also think back to games the Celtics lost against this team, the first one, the big blowout, came within the first week and did not include either Horford or Jae. That game the Wizards shot 10-21 from deep. In the second loss that didn’t include Avery, the Wizards shot 9-20 from deep. Here’s the thing. They finished the year 16th in 3PM. As long as the Celtics make sure to contest the perimeter, I’d say their chances or winning are drastically improved.
And let’s not try and act like the Wizards have a good defense. I know the Celtics have their own issues, but this Wizards team finished 21st in opponents points, 24th in opponent FG%, and 16th in opponent 3PM. Sure their offense is nasty, but if you’re giving it all back on the defensive end, does it matter? In terms of point differential, the Wizards had the lowest of any remaining playoff team in the East at +1.8, and one other glaring hole.
They really struggle on the road.
A 19-22 road record, we’ll see today if that trend continues. They did lose 2 of 3 on the road to ATL, and didn’t win in Boston all year. As the Celtics just saw, winning on the road in the playoffs is extremely important.
But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. In order for the Celtics to move out of this round, they are going to need a better shooting performance from Isaiah. How he’s able to play today makes no sense to me, but not only are his points important, his efficiency is going to matter way more this series than CHI. Same goes for his turnovers. He has to cut that shit out and play back within his normal range. Enough of this five, six turnover performances. How Isaiah plays in this series especially against this caliber of PG, will go a long way in how we view his season. Can he hit that extra gear? You know Wall is going to be there.
Believe it or not, I actually expect the other areas of the Celtics offense to play a little better in this series as well. People forget CHI actually had a top 10 defense last season. I want to see more of the same from Horford who absolutely has a mismatch against Gortat once you take him away from then basket, I want to see more early cutting from Avery, and more importantly I want to see the ball continue to move. We should all already expect there to be portions of this series where WSH goes on a crazy run. It’ll be whether or not the Celtics fall into that trap of doing nothing but shoot threes to keep pace, or continue to play the right way when things aren’t going their way.
This has every reason to be a fantastic series, and my stomach has been in knots since yesterday afternoon. For the most part we all preferred a second round series against WSH instead of TOR, and now it’s here. I think it’s safe to say this is going to be a stress filled next couple of weeks.
Let’s fucking GO.
Greenie Pick: Celtics in 6
P.S.
Can’t help but think of this clip when thinking about this series.