Rangers vs Senators Round 2 Series Preview
After knocking off one of the hottest teams heading into these 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Rangers now look to reap the benefits of their top wild card slot. Next up is a road trip a couple hours west of Montreal to square off against the squad I pegged as the weakest in the East. No disrespect to the Sens – they won a round, sure, but that was most likely the only matchup they could’ve come out on top of. A slow Bruins squad with a slew of aging or missing pieces still gave Ottawa all they could handle. All six games were decided by a goal. Two game-winners came in the 3rd period & the other four contests needed extra time. Again, credit to Ottawa for advancing – but squeaking past Boston is nowhere near enough to predict them getting by the faster, deeper, healthier Blueshirts.
GOALTENDING
The motherfucking King is back. Just an outstanding first round from Lundqvist after a poor regular season capped by injury & a handful of uninspiring games to prepare. I don’t know how he flipped the switch like that but he’s manning the crease as confidently as ever. Shut down the Habs to the tune of 1.70/.947 peripherals and now gets an Ottawa offense that finished 22nd in scoring. What was honestly a question mark no matter how much of a Hank fan you are is now the Rangers greatest asset this series.
Across the ice is a guy many have been rooting for all year after story broke of Craig Anderson’s wife Nicholle’s battle with cancer. There’s no doubt the Masterton Trophy finalist has been playing with a little extra motivation since he returned to his team in February after a couple months helping his wife gain the upper hand in her fight. He’s a late-bloomer who’s never really been anything other than plain “good”, but led the Senators to 25 wins in 40 starts with an impressive .926 save percentage as a 35 year-old this season. Anderson’s got career 1.74/.944 numbers over 19 starts vs the Rangers. Still, he’s simply out-classed in this matchup after Lundqvist’s first-round resurgence. Advantage, Blueshirts.
COACHING
Gotta give a lot of credit to Vigneault for the Rangers reeling off three straight & sending the Habs home. After an embarrassing Game 3, AV shook up the lines & brought Buchnevich in to up their overall speed & skill. He also held players accountable in-game instead of blindly rolling his guys. Vigneault’s playoff experience dwarfs that of Guy Boucher who’s gonna do everything he can to bring this series to a screeching halt with some semblance of the 1-3-1 he made famous as head coach in Tampa Bay:
I honestly think that would help the Rangers, not hinder them. One of New York’s weaknesses is exiting their zone. If Boucher wants his squad to back off & give the Rangers a free pass until they cross their own blue line, I’m all for it. Chalk up another edge to the Rangers.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Without question, Ottawa’s power play is the reason they’re still in the dance. 5 of their 15 goals came with a man advantage & 2 of them were OT game-winners. They were awful in the regular season but Derick Brassard & Bobby Ryan led the way up front against Boston while you’re not gonna find a better back-end facilitator than Erik Karlsson. Stone, Hoffman & Turris are all 20+ goal scorers who can do damage as well. The Rangers PK was solid though, killing 17 of 20 short-handed opportunities. More importantly for NY will be whether or not they can finish opportunities of their own. The Sens penalty kill is nowhere near the level of what Julien put out for the Canadiens, so another round of 1-15 will be inexcusable. Gotta call a push but NY really SHOULD come out on top here too.
DEFENSE
The Senators have a pretty well-rounded defensive corps that should be healthy for the start of this series. Karlsson recently said he’s been skating with hairline fractures in his heel but that clearly hasn’t slowed him down. He’s far and away the top point-producing defender over the course of his career & ate up over 30 minutes a night against the Bruins. Just like any other opponent, it’ll be real tough for the Rangers so slow down a guy so skilled who apparently never gets gassed. Beyond their captain is some serious grit. Methot is a stay-at-home big body. Phaneuf has had a bit of a resurgence offensively but always brings plenty of “mean”. Looks like Mark Borowiecki could be back from a leg injury too & there’s no bigger goon in the league. Despite limited minutes, he led the league in hits (twice as many as any Ranger) and PIM. These guys will all try to pummel Rangers forwards down low while NY looks to blow by them with speed.
As for the Blueshirts, they still have their defensive warts but against a lackluster offense they should be able to match how they played for a majority of the Montreal series. Most stepped up big time, especially after Game 3. No surprise McDonagh was a stud but Brendan Smith playing so well with so many important minutes gave this squad a huge boost. Girardi summoned his warrior status from a few years back while Brady Skjei buried the only two goals their blue liners tallied. The Staal/Holden tandem will continue to be the biggest worry but Vigneault limited their minutes a few times already. Still, the back end will always be the Rangers biggest weakness & although they played great to close out the Habs I can’t give them the nod over a corps led by an annual Norris finalist.
FORWARDS
I honestly expect the Rangers forwards to explode this series. They should undoubtedly win the depth battle as the fourth line of Fast/Grabs/Lindberg continue to grind & chip in offensively – but I’m confident some of the big guns are gonna show up too. Kreider assisted on the Game 5 OT winner & was more physically involved in Game 6. Miller & Hayes finally got on the board with apples on Zucc’s Game 6 winner & Stepan broke through with empty net insurance. The Sens are in for a rude awakening dealing with the speed & skill they’re about to face compared to what they saw against Boston. NY forwards proved they can not only handle but thrive on physicality so if that can’t stop them, there’s zero chance Ottawa has the overall skill up front to go toe-to-toe in a shootout.
It’ll be real interesting to see if Zibanejad continues to roll after catching a little fire towards the end of the first round. There’s no doubt finishing an OT game-winner is a huge boost in confidence & it was his feed to Zuccarello that finally had the Rangers finish off a power play opportunity in the clincher. Flanked by Nash skating like a freight train & Buchnevich on the cusp of a highlight reel moment, Zib’s in a prime spot to have a big series against the organization that drafted him 6th overall in 2011.
You know who’s a virtual lock to thrive against their former team? Big Game Brass. Despite having an awful regular season, Brassard lived up to his post-season reputation & hung 8 points while disposing of the B’s. Rangers fans know all too well how Brass performs when it matters most and there’s no doubt he’ll be skating with a chip on his shoulder. He’s gonna be nothing less than a motherfucking son of a bitch & I don’t think he’ll have any problem forgetting he’s pals with anyone in a blue sweater for a couple weeks. Any fond memories of Brass will almost certainly be replaced with hate by the time someone moves on to the conference final.
The rest of Ottawa’s top 6 are solid. Hoffman, Turris & Stone can all score. Bobby Ryan has caught fire along with Brassard to carry the offensive load & he can certainly be a rat like Gallagher was. After that though, their offensive options are severely limited – especially at even strength. Only two Senators forwards were a plus in the first round and neither of them were Brassard & Ryan who had 15 points between them. Whatever line Turris is centering will be the trio Rangers skaters feast on most but overall, this is a team that simply can’t hang 5×5. NY wins the battle up front by a landslide.
Truth is, the Sens just aren’t very good. That doesn’t mean this is a gimme for the Rangers – but it does mean I’m picking New York to advance in 5. A lot of talk is going on about how Ottawa will stifle the neutral zone but I don’t see it being all that hard for the Blueshirts to beat. The Senators blew leads regularly in their opening series. They coughed up a third period lead to lose Game 1 & couldn’t hang onto a 2-0 lead to clinch at home in Game 5. They also gave up a 3-goal advantage in Game 3 & dropped a third period lead in Game 6 before winning both in OT (thanks to a pair of power plays). I’m fully aware the Rangers love to build us up only to disappoint but they’d have to absolutely IMPLODE to go from the peak they’ve reached to a level of hockey poor enough to drop 4 to a Sens squad that won just 5 of their final 15 regular season games. Not happening.
RANGERS IN 5