Three Things to Watch in Kansas at Baylor and Virginia at UNC Today
These are the two biggest games of the day, with Wisconsin/Maryland not far behind it. However, with the uncertainty of Bronson Koenig’s health, I decided to skip that game for now because what Wisconsin does is linked directly to him. Three of the four teams that we are going to look at do have a direct line to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia has fallen completely off after having a chance. But, we saw Kansas and Baylor both on the top line last Saturday. Baylor has lost since then and I truly believe only one of the two stay there, especially the way UNC, Louisville and even Duke are set up.
Going to try and make this a little shorter since it’s Saturday and absolutely gorgeous out (i.e. I have an early tee time to get back home in time for the games). So we’ll look at three main things to watch in each game that will sway it either way.
Kansas at Baylor – 1pm
Line: Baylor -4
1. Can Baylor take advantage in the paint?
It’s no secret going forward this is the question for most teams as they play Kansas. The Jayhawks are thin as hell on the inside with really just Landen Lucas. Carlton Bragg is undersized and forced to play out of position at time. Mitch Lightfoot isn’t ready for this sort of level of play yet while Dwight Coleby isn’t totally healthy. Baylor on the other hand has an All-American candidate in Johnathan Motley and a 7’1″ Jo Lual-Acuil, who they will play at the same time. What happens in this scenario when Kasnas runs its typical small ball with four guards and Lucas? Is Svi or Jackson really going to be able to handle Motley in the post? Motley was dominant in the first game, especially in the first half. He finished the game 16 points and was wildly efficient with a 1.45 points per possession. He also threw in 10 rebounds, five of which came on the offensive side of the ball.
2. Will the Kansas Small Ball Lineup Destroy Baylor’s 1-1-3?
I really love the Baylor 1-1-3 zone. It’s a different look, it’s confusing and it’s something a lot of teams don’t run. I’m all for getting weird and playing to your strengths. That said, Kansas has the ability to destroy this zone. When they run the small ball lineup, all four guys can attack off the bounce. On top of that all four guys have a midrange game, can shoot the ball (Jackson has been more consistent lately) and can finish at the rim. It makes the Baylor defense guess. Take a look at the shot chart from the last game.
The threes are all from the same three spots. Each corner and the top of the key. This is due to their ability to get in the lane and kick. With this four guard lineup, it allows them to penetrate, relocate and find. Svi does a great job of this, especially in the corners. Look for Jackson and Mason to be the two guys most likely to attack off the dribble with Graham and Svi looking for the open shots.
3. Will Josh Jackson Continue to be the best player on the court?
It’s been some time since Josh Jackson hasn’t been the best player on the floor. Hell, even in the Kentucky game he was the most talented one out there. He’s starting to find his rhythm and that’s a really good thing for Kansas. The fact that they have him to pair with Frank Mason (in the running for NPOY) lets them get away with the lack of depth and size. In his last 10 games he’s averaging 18.4 ppg and 8.3 rebounds per game. If that’s not good enough, he’s shot 47% from three over that span and has over three assists a game. If that shooting number stays above 40% it makes Kansas almost impossible to guard on the offensive side of the ball. If he’s the best player on the court tomorrow, that means Motley or Manu Lecomte has to have a big day scoring to keep Baylor in it.
Pick: Baylor has been cold as of late? Kansas with some close wins and a ridiculous come back. Has all the makings for Baylor -4 to cover.
Virginia at North Carolina – 8:15pm
Line: UNC -1
1. How Does UNC Attack Virginia’s Pack Line Defense?
Again, a question that is asked nearly every time Virginia steps on the court. But, what makes this defense so good is the way they attack you when you set up a pick and roll and then the rotations defensively. Speaking of the pick-and-roll, I absolutely loved the way Duke attacked Virginia on Wednesday. They used the Warriors mentality of not dribbling when the screen came, but letting the screener use a hard roll, getting the ball to him and playing a 4v3 from there on out. Carolina doesn’t rely on the pick and roll as much as other teams, but it’s something to watch. What UNC will do, is pound the ball into the paint, one of the better ways to beat Virginia. They struggle the most when there’s a strong post presence and UNC has that perhaps better than anyone in the country. Look for a heavy dose of Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Tony Bradley.
2. Who Wins the Tempo?
Look, it’s no surprise how these two teams play. Virginia is quite literally the slowest team in the country. The average possession on offense is 21.1 seconds. That’s absurd. No team should play this slow. I get the whole Tony Bennett thing and successful with it. But, the less possession means the less room for error. We saw it this week against Duke. Virginia absolutely outplayed Duke in the first half, yet they were only up four. When you limit these possessions, it doesn’t let you truly take advantage of those sorts of games. It also allows for inferior opponents to hang around longer, most notably in NCAA Tournament play. UNC on the other hand is the 15th fastest team in the country with the average possession being 15 seconds. Whoever can dictate the tempo will have a huge advantage.
3. Joel Berry vs London Perrantes
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These are two of the 15 best point guards in the country and we’ll get to see them individually matched up against each other. Similar to the tempo battle, whoever can ‘cut the head off the snake’ in this game wins. They both are arguably the most important factors to the team success (I’d be willing to listen to Justin Jackson for UNC, but still think it’s Berry based on how Roy values point guard play). When guarding Perrantes you have to be careful. He’s become a more consistent outside shooter (39% on the year) but will absolutely kill you with passing at the same time. The key is to play him to drive and finish over helpside defense. Both of these guys have hit key shots from three this year and if the game is close there’s a solid chance the play design is goign to them.
Pick: I’ll take UNC -1 at home. The interior play is just too much and that’s one of the easy ways to attack Virginia.