It’s Christmas Week, fellas! I won a bet last week thanks to the Boca Raton Wet The Beak Ponzi Scheme Awareness Bowl. It felt good. I’ve been bad once again, but there’s no excuses necessary. Luckily, it’s Jesus’ birthday this week and in honor of his birth there’s a lot of football on. I like to picture Jesus in tuxedo t shirt because it says I want to be formal, but I’m ready to party. In this case, baby Jesus is gonna drink a lot and win (probably lose) a bunch of money on football while wearing a tuxedo t-shirt. Gonna be a great day.
Now let’s hit to Matty Math for some picks with the spread.
Another 2-1 showing last week with San Diego State and the Pats coming up big. The Chiefs marked my first official bad pick in this thing. Left like a losing week because of money I left on the board Sunday. But, it remains the best time of year to be a degenerate. Bowl season has gone to a 4-4 fave dog split so far and the NFL is rocking a 107-106- 11 split with Dogs winning covers outright 76% of the time. Merry Christmas, pick your spots…
These have been two of my favorite teams this year. Ohio took down Toledo outright as a 16 point dog to shock the MAC, and Troy took down App State as a 2 point fave in what was one of the best games that nobody saw this year. Ohio has an unbelievable defensive line, and are one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run. The offense is more the little engine that could vibes, just kind of suspect talent wise. Troy has a better all-around offense, and the defense is damn good too. It is easier to gameplan for a dope defensive line than it is a balanced offense. The deciding factor for me is situational motivation. The MAC Championship was Ohio’s super bowl, and this game will feel like they are playing in a loser’s bracket. Meanwhile, Troy had a surprising up year, and this bowl is their chance to cement it as such. Add in that it’s in Alabama, and I’m on the favorite. Pick: Troy -4
Look, I’ve developed a mild case of favorititis. Been getting caught taking too many favorites during a time of year where the dogs are live as fuck. How do you shake favorititis? You back the 0-14, diabolical 2-12 ats Browns. Vegas is the Undertaker, and you can’t kill what won’t die. Just when you think they are finally dead is when they tombstone you to hell. There is around 20% of action on the Browns, perfect. Besides all that, I just have a gut feeling that RG3 either balls out or totally blows and gets replaced by Cody Kessler who inspires a backdoor cover effort behind some Rivers turnovers. Pick: Browns +6 (I mean.. sorta)
The Texans have been underrated all season long, and have lived down to the low expectations because of a dude named Brock Osweiler. Brock isn’t just bad, the guy has the yips… One tall ass mental midget. Anyway, I’m looking for Tom Savage to show off some beginner’s luck and bravado of a dude named Savage. Fuller, Miller, and Hopkins are more than Dalton’s ginger ass is dealing with and the loss of Burfict hurts. Plus they are dead and the Texans aren’t. Pick: Texans -115
Christmas Day- You know the rules, under till the cows come home.
Both teams are 5-6, and while I respect the ACC more than most, I think the SEC 5-6 is getting disrespected by this line. Each team is 7-4 ats with Vanderbilt 6-3 as a dog and NC State is 4-2 as a fave. 3 of NC State’s 4 covers as a fave came much earYou know the rules, under till the cows come home.
lier in the year, with the Notre Dame cover coming in a actual hurricane. Vandy is coming off two nice home wins as a dog, and I think they make it three straight covers here. Pick: Vanderbilt +4.5
It is hard to fade one of best offensive lines ever, but Dallas is on a four game at the spread skid as a favorite. Zeke said he doesn’t believe in a “rookie wall” but his buddy Dak is starting to think about it. Stafford was throwing the ball with solid velocity one week out of his hand injury, and the move indoors helps him in his second week. Suh should be able to disrupt the run game a little, and Dak can’t just dump it off to Witten for a 7-point cover here. Pick: Lions +7
The Big 12 is trash, but Oklahoma State put together a much better showing in the pouring rain against Oklahoma than Colorado did against Washington. Is Washington better than Oklahoma? For sure, but by how much is up for debate in my book. I think Mason Rudolph and his offense will be able to move the ball on the Buffaloes and keep it within the number. Pick: Oklahoma State +3
Picks Record: 6-2
Pretty horny move throwing out as many picks as I have wins… Feeling a little like JR with the shot selection but let’s party.
Check the NFL primer before Saturday so you don’t get debt for Christmas.
@mathguy500 for chirps and questions
aaaaaaaaand Back to the Overs
- Alamo Bowl Over 62.5
- Huuuuuuge fan here.The only late night game on a Thursday night. 2 teams that can score in Oklahoma State and Colorado. I’ve liked Colorado all year and know they can play defense, but this shits in the Alamodome. Last 2 Alamo Bowls had 75 and 88 points in ‘em, im not saying….but I’m saying.
- Chargers at Browns Over 43.5
- I love this over. I thought it’d be in the realm of like 45-45.5 yet its 2 points lower than that. That’s the only thing that scares me, aside from that we have the better D of the 2 traveling cross country to play the fucking Browns. Cleveland’s gonna be scoring at will as a final Christmas gift to the poor 4,000 people that go to a Browns game on Christmas Eve. Phillip Rivers will have a lot of frustration from not being with his 27 children on Christmas Eve that he’ll take his frustrations out on the Browns Defense.
- Bucs at Saints 52.5
- This is it. The mother of all overs. 4:25 is the perfect time as well. Have a couple cold ones in you before it begins, but have a lot by the time it finishes. This game doesn’t even need a write-up due to the over being so blatant.
That’s it for this week, folks. Barstool HQ is closed all week next week, but this blog will have you covered for your New Year’s Eve debauchery next week. Have fun this week, win some cash, give good presents, watch points be scored, and track Santa on NORAD. Hit me on Twitter with any questions, comments, or concerns you may have about games this week @glenny_balls
Happy Festivus & Merry Christmas everyone! (the President says I can say that now)