Dexter Fowler Is Headed To The Cardinals On A Deal That Is 'Expected To Be Big'
The full details still aren’t all out there yet, but it sounds like Dexter Fowler has agreed to a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.
It’s been a wild couple of turns through free agency for Fowler, who remained unsigned as a free agent as late as February 25 of this past winter. There were reports that he had signed a deal with the Baltimore Orioles, and then next thing you know, he’s walking onto the practice fields at Cubs spring training camp to a standing ovation by his teammates. After rejoining the Cubs on a one-year deal worth $8 million, Fowler established himself as one of the biggest bargains in baseball, hitting .276 with an .840 OPS. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs had Fowler’s 2016 value set at $37.6 million based on his performance, just for last year alone. Fowler has always been famous for his ability to get on base, and his 2016 was no different, as the 30-year-old got on base at a .393 clip as the leadoff hitter for the eventual World Series champion Cubs. It was the highest on-base percentage of his nine-year major league career.
Since his first full season in 2009, Fowler ranks 15th in the majors in on-base percentage (.368) amongst players with at least 800 games played. Fowler has played in 1,051 over that span. If you’re the Cardinals, though, what do you do with Matt Carpenter? For a majority of his career, Carpenter has hit leadoff, and he’s been pretty damn good at it, too, hitting .295 with a .387 on-base percentage and an .871 OPS out of the leadoff spot. Fowler has some experience hitting second, and the drop-off in his performance isn’t as drastic as Carpenter’s when he hits second. There’s a difference of 125 points in OPS between Carpenter hitting leadoff and batting second, compared to a difference of 65 points for Fowler.
Even though the Cardinals missed the postseason this year, they were still fourth in the majors in runs scored (779), and Carpenter had a .430 on-base percentage in games that they won, and a .320 on-base percentage in games that they lost. A .320 on-base percentage is still pretty good, but it’s pretty clear that the Cardinals had great success when Carpenter got on base to jumpstart the offense. I don’t know if I’d mess with a good thing, but it’s certainly a good problem to have. You could continue to bat Carpenter leadoff with Fowler behind him, followed by Aledmys Diaz, who has yet to hit third in his major league career, or you could have Fowler lead off, Diaz hit second, and Carpenter hit third, since he’s a better pure hitter. Regardless of the order in which they appear on the lineup card, that’s a great top of the order.