OddShark Presents Glenny & The Bets

Aaaaaaaand we’re back for the second official week of Glenny & The Bets. Started off hot out the gates last week going 0-3 in my first 3 overs, then nailed the Under of the Week Special, took the L with the Pats over, and hit the Cards/Skins over. Solid 2-4 record so far. Good thing there’s that old mantra- If you had fun, you won. And I had fun so therefore I won.

This week is mainly gonna be just Army/Navy and NFL Week 14. In the spirit of lots of NFL, let’s take a peak at some Super Bowl Futures

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• You can obviously dictate to yourself the favorites. That’s a judgement call. Everyone knows the fun part of futures is taking some long shots. No one wants to bet Bama to win the National Championship. If you do, you deserve to be put down for being a dull dud.
  • Oakland at 10/1 isn’t too terrible. 10-3, Black Hole out in full-force. Why not take a shot? I thought they’d be more around 8/1 than 10.
  • Kinda biased here, but the Giants at 33/1 is prime. Even though the whole team is dead right now, maybe get a bit more healthy come the playoffs if they get in and then wheels up. Eli may also not get sacked again this season thanks to the return of my friend Justin Pugh. Throw 20 bucks on it and ya get back $660. What a deal!
  • And finally my subconsciously 2nd favorite NFL team, the Tennessee Titans, at 75/1. I love the Titans. They were fun to play as in Madden with CJ2K, They have houses in the endzone, Nashville’s a fun city, Delanie Walker was my Fantasy TE last year, and I picked Tajae Sharpe this year thinking he’d be a dope sleeper. Love the Titans. And I genuinely do think if they wiggle their way in by winning the AFC South they can make some noise. They’d have a first round home game, and God knows NO ONE wants to come to Tenneesee for a playoff game.

And now let’s get some spread action from Matty Math.

So the math is off to a nice start after hitting Washington -8 and Penn State +3 last week to go 2-0. Just had the playoff bracket a few days early. This week is the calm before the bowl storm so the football slate is limited but I’m feeling good. Pick your spots folks…

Army vs. Navy -6 (Neutral @ Baltimore) 

Only college game on the board, and it’s a tough one to handicap in a couple of ways. It is difficult to predict how injuries to quarterback Will North and a couple of slotbacks will effect Navy’s offense. Zach Abey steps in to fill North’s shoes for his first start with limited previous experience. Before the injuries, the Midshipmen offense was absolutely purring. On the Army side there’s a defensive focused squad without a lot of offensive fireworks. Army’s wins against Wake Forest and Temple are the only indications that the defense can lead them to a big win against some sort of quality. Trying to look at any transitive property theories with Temple and Notre Dame will give you a headache.

The year over year trends are more significant in this matchup of military academies than they would be in your average contest. Obviously Navy has won 14 straight, but the spread has been competitive going 6-4 in favor of Army over the last 10 years. 3 of the last 5 final scores have been decided by 6 points or fewer with one more landing on a 7 point margin. This matchup also hasn’t gone over this total (47) since 2010. The last 10 fuckin years of Army-Navy games have gone under. The year over year trends combined with the injuries and downward line movement give me this…

Lean: Tease Army and the under or skip it all together. This game made me feel like Dolores in Westworld but the center of the maze is just gambling debt. Check out OddsShark’s preview and matchup pages before you hit this one because it’s a doozy. Apologies if you read all that expecting a solid pick at the end, I looked hard for one.

Picks

• Redskins -2 @ Eagles
  • The Eagles are out of the playoff picture, but offer a spoiler role in division here. They are 4-1 ATS at home and 1-6 ATS on the road. Wild split. The pretty racist names are 8-4 ATS, powered by Kirk’s potent passing attack. Washington has been the better team but this just has the makings of a close one. Jordan Reed is confident he will play while both Jordan and Ryan Mat(t)hews return for Philly. I think Reed will be more limited and less impactful than the Mat(t)hews duo. I’m still high on Carson Wentz and with weapons returning he should get back to doing what he’s capable of. Despite the line staying close to even, the overwhelming majority of money is on the Skins. The unknown variable is Philly morale. Are the Eagles gonna stay in fuck this mode or shift to play for pride mode? Does Pederson have his locker room? It’s hard to know, but I’ll fade the public and take the home dog. Pick: Eagles +2
• Falcons -6 @ Rams
  • Going with a road favorite goes against the gambling textbook, and it’s a disgustingly public side, but Atlanta is a sneaky 5-1 ATS on the road compared to the Rams 1-3-1 ATS home life. The OddsShark NFL Primer has an awesome nugget on the game, “at home, the Rams are averaging an NFL-worst 12 points per game. On the road, the Falcons are averaging an NFL-best 30.8 points per game” and that’s your weekly dose of math. Falcons would have beaten the Chiefs last week but Eric Berry’s amazing story blew up their plans. They should be looking to right the ship. J-Fish’s plans for the new contract seem to begin with a quick dumpster fire and blame-the-GM session, as is tradition. The Rams are a running team that can’t really run the ball that well and Goff can’t hang with Matty Ice yet. Lay the points. Pick: Falcons -6
    
• Seattle -3 @ Green Bay 
  • This is one that the gambling textbook can smile at. Last week the Seahawks threw the Panthers out of the playoffs while Rivera tried to throw Cam out of strip clubs, but they lost Earl Thomas in the process. Bad for vibes, bad for the passing defense, good for Aaron Rodgers. Seattle is 3-5-1 ATS as a favorite and the Pack is 2-1 ATS as a dog. Rodgers will keep them in the game throughout, the question is whether the Green Bay defense can do enough to get the dub. Lambeau will be rockin and freezing and that’s just how they like it.  Pick: Packers +3

Picks Record: 2-0. Make sure you check out OddsShark’s NFL Primer before you pull trig on anything. Hit up @mathguy500 on twitter with any questions or winners you may have on your card. And no, there’s never going to be math.

Back to overs

This week will be a nice parlay week for Balls. Just 2 quick parlays. Nothing crazy.

• 1pm Parlay- SD/CAR Over 49, Arizona/Miami Over 44, Houston/Indy Over 46.5
  • There is no rational way these should go under, but who the fuck knows. How can San Diego playing Carolina not be like 35-32? Miami can score at home. I watched Arizona’s Amazon Special last season therefore I think they can score like 70 points. Finally, I do fucking hate Houston, but Indy’s Defense is so bad I think they can maybe put up 20 points or so.
• 4pm and on Parlay- Nawlins/Tampa Over 51.5, Seattle/Green Bay 45.5, Dallas/NYG Over 47
  • Once again, I do not understand how this NO/TB game can go under. But I thought that same thing a couple of weeks ago when Seattle went to Florida. That’s the pick though, yolo. Seattle and Green Bay I’m thinking shootout. And all the defensive Giants are dead now so I think that can be like 27-24 final or something in that region. Needed the Sunday night action anyway.

The main goal of this week is to hopefully make a little cash for the next couple of weeks that are upon us. The bridge to Bowl Season. The light at the end of the tunnel. I can almost taste it. When I’m drunk on Christmas Eve and alienated from my family preparing for the Hawaii Bowl I’ll (hopefully) be thanking myself for this wonderful NFL Week 14 I had. Finally, My under of the week is Under 45 in Rams/Falcons.

Next week we’re hoping to have some video content to go along with Glenny & The Bets. Should be interesting. Until then, peace. You’re welcome to send any questions, comments, or concerns to me on Twitter @Glenny_Balls