Your Official Orioles Vs Blue Jays 2016 A.L. Wild Card Game Preview

For the 20th and last time this season, the Orioles will play the Blue Jays, the Jays won the season series 10-9. Good news for the O’s is they were in Toronto for basically a playoff series last week and took two of three. Bad news is that Baltimore is 4-6 on the turf in Toronto this season. The O’s have improved as a road team over the last few weeks, winning their last five road series to bring their road record to 39-42. They’ll have to get their 40th road win of the season if they want to keep playing. Both teams finished with an identical 89-73 record, tied for second in the A.L. East. These teams had some dogfights this year, some curb stomping too, I expect a high intensity game, and we may see a Blue Jay try and fight someone.

Let’s dig deeper into this one game playoff.

Offense

Both these teams can mash, everyone knows that. Baltimore lead the world in home runs with 253, fifth most all-time. They had there MLB home run leader for the fourth year in a row as well. Mark Trumbo lead the Birds with 47, Chris Davis chipped in 38, Manny Machado was right behind him with 37, Adam Jones put up 29, Jonathan Schoop had a breakout year and hit 25, Pedro Alvarez in a limited role hit 22, and Matt Wieters even hit 17. Pretty much everyone in this lineup is a home run threat, and Marcus Stroman gave up 21 of them this year.  They will have to manufacture runs in this game if they want to keep their season alive, it’s as simple as that, you can’t always rely on the long ball to bail you out.

With Stroman starting, Alvarez may start at DH and Hyun-Soo Kim and Mark Trumbo in the corners, leaving Michael Bourn on the bench, he’s a guy that can kickstart an inning with a walk and steal his way to scoring position, watch out for him as a late inning weapon off the bench. I’m also expecting to see Chris Davis lower in the order, around fifth or sixth, take some pressure off him.

Toronto has some guys who can swing it too. As a team, the Jays hit 221 home runs, third most in the A.L. They were lead by Edwin Incarnation with 42, 2015 MVP Josh Donaldson had 37, Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Saunders both had 24, Jose Bautista was hurt for a while but still threw up 22, and Russell Martin had 20. It always seems as if they jump on the Orioles early with a walk, move a guy over, double, and a homer. It’s like clockwork. With these Canadian fans going crazy in their home field, Chris Tillman and the O’s have to keep the ball in the ballpark. Don’t leave one belt-high to Donaldson or Edwin. Jose Bautista had a terrible last series against the O’s and always tries to set the tone in these games, don’t let him beat you either. Their offense STUNK in September, have to hope that continues.

It’s a coin flip here, but since the ball flies in this ballpark, I’m sticking with the Orioles here.

Pitching

The Orioles are throwing their “ace”, Chris Tillman against Marcus Stroman. Tillman was cruising his way to 20 wins before a shoulder injury derailed him in August. He finished with a 16-6 record, a 3.77 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP in 172 IP. People are worried about Tillman because he threw the lowest % of fastballs of the season and his velocity was down in his last start against Toronto, leading some to think he is still not trusting his shoulder. If Tillman can give the Orioles a solid 5-6 innings, they should be okay. Is he 100%? No, it’s October, no one is playing fully healthy right now. People questioned Buck starting Tillman because of his career numbers at the Rogers Centre, 2-6, 7.01 ERA in 68 IP, he also started Joe Saunders in Texas when he had shitty numbers, that worked out. This season above the border he is 0-0 with a 2.38 ERA, including 5 and 2/3 IP with 1 run given up last week. Baltimore is 22-8 when Tillman starts, including 12-2 against the A.L. East.

Chris Tillman has started 5 games with Gary Cederstorm behind the plate and has gone 1-1 with a 3.56 ERA and is average g 8.0 K/9, third highest rate he has with umpires he has logged at least 20 IP with (H/T AnnoyingStatGuy). Even if he does sputter early in the game, Dylan Bundy will be on call like Kevin Gausman was in 2014. How crazy is it that we all were trying to decide between Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez to start this game? Tillman is the guy who got you here, you have to start your horse.

Marcus Stroman had a down year by his standards, 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA. He had a career high in WHIP, H/9, HR/9, and BB/9. Lucky for the O’s they have some guys who have hit Stroman pretty well. Look for Alvarez and Kim to get at-bats, Trumbo sees the ball well off of him, as does Jones. Against the Birds this season, Stroman was 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA, so the O’s can knock him around. He was also 0-5 in September and hasn’t won a game since August 14th, his home ERA is 4.59. Time for the boys to eat off Marcus.

This one is a toss up, both guys could go 7 shutout innings, or get knocked out in the second. No clear favorite here.

Bullpen

You know the story of the O’s bullpen, Zach Britton had the greatest season by a reliever ever, Brad Brach had an unbelievable first half, shaky second half and still ended up with a 2.05 ERA and WHIP of 1.04. Donnie Hart has been the lefty specialist they have been looking for, Myhcal Givens established himself with Darren O’Day out for much of the season. Dylan Bundy did great as a starter in the second half, but will be a weapon out of the pen for this game. Baltimore has the best bullpen ERA in the A.L. and in a one game playoff, the bullpen is extremely important, glad to be rooting for this one.

Toronto on the other hand, their bullpen has only gotten worse over the last few weeks. They lost their best reliever, Joaquin Benoit, who hurt himself sprinting in to fight the Yankees. Roberto Osuna had a good year, but has blown three of his last four saves, including against Baltimore last season. Jason Grilli is an absolute clown cums himself when he gets an out, but still has an ERA of 4.12 and given up runs in his last three appearances.

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This one is easy, Orioles by a mile.

Defense

Another thing that the Orioles excel at, there is a legit possibility that everyone in the infield wins a Gold Glove. Jones has lost a step in the outfield, but still is an above average fielder with a good arm, Hyun-Soo Kim makes smart plays, doesn’t let any balls get behind him, Trumbo is a god awful fielder, but has a cannon for an arm. Michael Bourn can come off the bench as a defensive replacement, same for Nolan Reimold. All around this is one of, if not the best defense in the league.

Toronto has some guys who can scoop it around the diamond as well. Russel Martin is highly underrated behind the plate, Edwin can play a decent first, Devon Travis is one of my favorite fielders to watch, and Tulo and Donaldson are great to watch play the field. Kevin Pillar is up their with Kevin Kiermaier as the best defensive center fielder. Jose Bautista isn’t as nimble in the field anymore, and will probably DH this game.

If you look at the stats, they are pretty close in fielding percentage, and total errors, but let’s be real, the Orioles have the better defense.

Manager

Buck is a top 3 manager in baseball, not many guys I would want at the helm. He seems to make the correct decision most of the time, except for the Wade Miley seventh inning last week, but that is over. Most of the time we question why someone is in the lineup in a certain spot, they come through for the team, Buck just has that magic touch. I’d run through hell for this guy.

John Gibbons looks and walks like how I feel on Saturday mornings, just like a slob. He seems to question every call, regardless of outcome, and seems to think his shit don’t stink. It does, John. If we’re being honest, he can’t hold Buck’s jock.

Buck over Gibby.

The Blue Jays do have home field advantage, and that scares me. Those Canadians drink all that Molson and get all riled up, the place gets LOUD, we saw it last season in the playoffs. The Orioles always seem to press when they are up there too, they look like they’re trying to do too much. Just play their game, don’t try and hit a five run homer with no one on, hope that Tillman can give you six innings, and turn it over to the best pen in the league. The Orioles weren’t supposed to be here in the first place, why not keep proving everyone wrong? Let’s win this game, and get to Texas. Tonight. 8:00, TBS. Tune in.

Orioles win