Olympic Basketball Day 7 Picks, Previews and Daily Fantasy Plays as the US Can Clinch Group A
I think it’s officially time to copy KFC and Cuncel da Espana. Spain looked like they finally figured shit out yesterday. Jumped out to a nice 14 point lead in the first quarter, then let Nigeria – yes one of the three worst teams in this competition by far – came back and took Spain to the wire. Hell, the Spaniards even realized that when Ricky Rubio is in the game they should press and trap to try and speed the game up with the way teams are guarding Rubio. They did all that and jumped out to another lead. Then, they of course backed off, letting Nigeria tie the game again and take them down the wire. This team is going to draw parallels to the 2004 US team and it’s warranted. A lot of the same mistakes are there – from the poor coaching to having a couple guards that can’t shoot the ball. There’s no spacing and instead of sticking with a defense that works, Spain keeps trying to revert back to a basic man-to-man where they get shredded.
The other two games yesterday were huge. In the nightcap we saw one of the best played games so far in the Olympics between Lithuania and Argentina – with Lithuania locking themselves into advancing to the knockout stage. Argentina absolutely blew the game though. Manu Ginobili – a career 83% free throw shooter missed seven shots from the line last night. Then late in the game with Argentina making a comeback, Andres Noicioni flopped, thought he should have gotten a foul call and as the play was still going on, kicked the signs behind the hoop. So why was that important? Well Manu had just gotten a steal as he got the technical, resulting in Lithuania getting shots and the ball. For Lithuania though they just need one win against Croatia or Spain and they should win the group. Hopefully you read my Group B preview and took my advice on this:
Today we’re back with two shit games as that will always happen in Group A when China and Venezuela aren’t playing each other. However, the Americans are back in action, which means it’s time to pay attention as they could struggle again.
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Australia vs China – 1:15 pm
Line: Australia -25.5 (-10000), China +1600, 153.5
Preview: The Australians were obviously more than impressive against the US as they looked like a legit challenger like we thought Spain would. Despite not having the athletic wing, they have used the non-traditional two-big lineup and it’s worked just fine. The key is they take advantage in the backcourt with Delly and Patty Mills. On top of that, this is a smart team. When the US tried switching screens, Australia started to go backdoor and running fake screens, which caught the US out of position. The other key is Andrew Bogut can step out to the free throw line and is a good passer from there, playing a hi-low with Aron Baynes in the post. Defensively they are strong, which is something that is a little shocking. We knew Delly would piss opponents off and get in their shorts in the backcourt. Andrew Bogut being healthy though is what’s helping this team. They challenge every shot at the rim and use Joe Ingles as their Swiss Army Knife, who can guard wings and some post players.
Pick: The only thing that scares me here is a let down after the US game. But, Australia needs to win this game. A win here and they guarantee a spot in the knockout round. On top of that if they can go 4-1, which they should since they end with China and Venezuela, they avoid the US in the knockout round. That’s what half of the Olympics is about anyways. China will struggle to score, especially when their strength are big guys. Yi will get his buckets, but who else on China can handle the pressure of Australia? This game might be made for live bets, but to start I’ll lean on Australia getting their win.
USA vs Serbia – 6:30 pm
Line: USA -25.5 (-20000), Serbia +2000, 188.5
Preview: The US showed some weaknesses in the game against Australia – which was their first real challenge since the Argentina exhibition. Serbia is a team, similar to Australia, that can score from the guard position. Serbia will look at Bogdan Bogdanovic and Milos Teodosic in the backcourt to get them some buckets. However, the front court, which should be strong has struggled these Olympics, especially Nikola Jokic. Jokic, who plays for the Nuggets, essentially willed this team in qualifying and they’ve pretty much gone away from him in Rio. Hell, he can hardly stay out of foul trouble. Now, if him and Miroslav Radujica can stay out of foul trouble and protect the rim, we can see the US struggle and settle for long jumpers. However, something tells me K drilled into this team that they are a million times more athletic than anyone else and to start attacking the rim. While I love Teodosic’s offensive game, he can’t guard your grandmother, meaning Kyrie, Lowry and then either DeRozan, George or Butler need to take advantage of that. I liked how the US went big last game starting George over Klay. They should do that again, or whenever Teodosic is in the game and let him try to stay in front of PG.
Pick: I don’t live this game but I am an American. At some point this team needs to show how good they are and this could be the spot. Serbia is a strong opponent, as I think they can contend for the bronze medal and their defense is somewhat suspect. The over might be enticing, but it depends if the US defense, which can be outstanding shows up. Watch that for live bets as you can get a feel for how Serbia is reading the defense. If Durant shows up in the first quarter, unlike on Wednesday, it can be over quick here.
France vs Venezuela – 9:30 pm
Line: France -19.5, Venezuela +1300, 141.5
Preview: France may have gotten lucky against Serbia with Tony Parker hitting a fadeaway as the shot clock went off and only about 30 seconds left in the game. They should be able to bounce back now against an easier Venezuelan team. We know what Venezuela wants to do in slow the game down, ugly it up and foul a lot. However, France needs this win to clinch a spot in the knockout round. More importantly in the last game we saw Nic Batum finally get going and that should carry over to this game as he’ll get open looks. France’s weakness has been their defense and luckily for them, Venezuela struggles to score. This game shouldn’t be close if France shows up on the offensive side of the ball and doesn’t try to do too much.
Pick: Again, another game I don’t love as there are expected to be three blowouts, so I’ll lean on the side of the French. They know they end with Team USA and a loss here will eliminate them from the Olympics. Look for France to get out to an early lead with Nando De Colo and Batum attacking and running the offense through Boris Diaw.
Daily Fantasy Plays
Another strong day yesterday with Saric living up to the hype that Philly fans have put upon him. Today you’ll want to look at the favorites, especially USA and Australia.
Nando De Colo $5900 – Again, getting him under $6,000 is a steal as De Colo has been one of France’s most consistent players. Against Venezuela he should get wide open looks as he’s scored 22 and 19 in the last two games.
Paul George $7200 – If George gets the start he has a mismatch right away against Serbia. The Indiana Pacer is 6’9” and will likely have a 6’4” guy on him who will struggle to stay in front. He should pitch in 4-5 rebounds too and at only $7,200 he’s too tough to pass up today.
David Andersen $5100 – Another cheaper play is the Australian who hurt Team USA. He gets China today, which means Australia should play him more with his size and ability to hit jumpers. For his price he should get you about 20 fantasy points.