Here We Go Again: Jose Quintana Will Return An Insane Prospect Pool If Traded
For the second year in a row, the White Sox are a middling team as the trade deadline approaches, and for the second year in a row the Red Sox and them are an ideal trade partner.
Last year I proposed a hypothetical trade where the White Sox should ship Jose Quintana to the Red Sox for a package that was headlined by Blake Swihart. Now I have taken a lot of internet beatings in my life; that one was the worst. Boston fans came at me in droves calling me any and every name in the book for even thinking of mentioning Quintana and Swihart in the same sentence. “Swihart is a top 20 prospect and you think Quintana is worth him AND THEN SOME!?! YOU ARE A FUCKING MORON!!!”
I couldn’t believe what I was hearing; I have always heard that Red Sox fans were smarter than the typical fan base so it made no sense to me. I mean Jose Quintana had previously signed long term, extremely team friendly extension, was just entering his prime and his advanced analytics were in the same league as guys like Bumgarner, Sale, Hamels and Price. But I guess that wasn’t good enough to net a prospect like Swihart, because prospects always play to projections and Swihart was the next Johnnie Bench apparently. Alrighty then. Stupid me.
And wouldn’t ya know, exactly one year later Swihart is hurt, there’s questions on whether or not he’s gonna stick at catcher, and he’s projecting to be a light-ish hitting switch hitter with speed. That, and Jose Quintana, now in his prime, is having the best year of his career with an ERA that is sub 3.00, a WAR that is making a beeline for 5.0+ at season’s end and for the last 40 starts or so, has undoubtedly been the best pitcher on the White Sox staff. And this is the same staff that has a Hall of Fame talent on it. If you want a true snapshot of how good Jose Quintana has been and how much better he is getting, Fangraphs breaks it down here. Thank god the White Sox didn’t make that trade. The Red Sox would have been committing highway robbery.
Now, moving forward to the larger point of this blog. I’ll say it as bluntly as possible:
If you don’t think Yoan Moncada is worth giving up for Jose Quintana, you don’t know baseball. It’s as simple as that. Not only that, you don’t know how simple market value and/or supply and demand work. That’s what I’m here to teach you. Outside of Barstool, I am paid to give my opinion of baseball players to actual baseball people. I am consulted on Illinois high school baseball players daily. Not scrubs, players who have college and pro potential. I’m not trying to say I’m Tony Larussa, but I do know baseball. I know it pretty well. So here’s a little baseball lesson for you.
Let’s start with market value:
Here’s a list of recent starting pitchers who have been traded.
Drew Pomeranz, Lucas Harrell, Andrew Cashner.
- Drew Pomeranz
Pomeranz is a depth piece in a rotation. Nothing more than that. He’s never really done anything special at all, but is having his best year in 2016. Funny how once one is pitching whatever X amount of his games against NL West competition in parks not named Coors Field that has happened. He finally, finally overcame his highest obstacle this year by cracking 100IP mark. He’s worth a career 5.4 fWAR and is almost 28 years old. This guy just returned a consensus top 15 prospect in baseball, a player that many people in the Boston Media dubbed “the next Pedro”
-Lucas Harrell
Lucas Harrell is a bum. He stinks. He’s always stunk. I guess he was having a cute year for Atlanta before he was dealt. Oh wait, no he wasn’t. He only threw 29 fucking innings. Those 29 innings were good enough to net Travis Demeritte though! “WSD didn’t Demeritte just play in the Futures Game and isn’t he a SS/2B prospect that has legitimate grade 65+ power, great hands, and + speed?” Yep! You bet he is. Here’s his stats so far in High A:
Insanity!!! Also worth noting – he was popped for juice last year and thus wasn’t ranked in any preseason pubs, but after he was traded he was said he’ll be ranked a top 50 prospect at seasons end. For Lucas Harrell. The same Lucas Harrell who was pitching in KOREA last year. The same Lucas Harrell that has 29IP this year. The same Lucas Harrell that always has been and always will be a BUM.
-Andrew Cashner
Andrew Cashner is also a bum. I hold a special hatred in my heart for him because he was flipped by the Cubs for Anthony Rizzo. That’s beside the point though; Andrew Cashner just isn’t a good pitcher. Anyway you slice it, if you’re a WAR guy, an ERA guy, or a good ol’ fashioned eyeball test guy – Andrew Cashner stinks. He has an ERA approaching 5 in the Cy Young haven that is the NL West but guess what? He just returned the Marlins second best prospect in a trade, Josh Naylor, who was a 1st round pick a year ago, AND THEN SOME!!! Andrew Cashner and his 4.76ERA and .4WAR just returned a prospect pool that has legit big league projection in it. Again, it’s insanity.
Now, I won’t even get into how the Cubs just flipped a top 10 prospect and a legit MLB established bullpen /spot starter for a rental either. It’s worth noting, but not an apples to apples comparison. That and I won’t even mention how SHELBY MILLER returned a MASSIVE prospect package to Atlanta. The same Shelby Miller who’s pitching in AAA right now.
Now let’s have a little lesson on supply vs. demand:
Here’s a list of the 15 best starting pitchers in baseball. I don’t think the top few can be debated, but the rest obviously can. This is all off the top of my head:
Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale, Arrieta, Fernandez, Thor, Scherzer, Kluber, Cueto, Quintana, Cole, Lester, Grienke, Hamels, de Grom.
Now, obviously there are names in there one can argue and names that are no brainers. Quintana is a borderline top 15 pitcher in baseball. Any way you slice it, be it standard metrics or advanced ones, he’s right there with some of the best pitchers in the entire world. Did I mention he’s signed through 2020 for about $36MM yet? Because that contract only adds to his value. Lester, Kershaw, Scherzer, Grienke, etc. are all on this list… and making $150MM or more. They may be better pitchers than Q, but they’re not 8x better than him.
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Now, in that same list – who’s available via trade?
Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale, Arrieta, Fernandez, Thor, Scherzer, Kluber, Cueto, Quintana, Cole, Lester, Grienke, Hamels, de Grom
Notice how there’s only one name not crossed out in that list. It’s Jose Quintana. With the addition of the second wild card a few years ago, more teams will naturally be buyers at the deadline. The demand for quality starting pitching far outweighs the supply of it. That’s why you see bums like the names I mentioned early getting silly returns in trades. Because teams are desperate for good arms. They value MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYERS more than prospects. Players that can help them win now. Especially major league players that are as established as Q and better yet, players that are as productive and cheap as Q. Because they know once they get to the playoffs, anything can happen. EG: The Kansas City Royals advancing to the 2014 World Series after being the 2nd wild card.
Now all of this brings me to my last point. Yoan Moncada is absolutely a fair piece in a deal for Jose Quintana. This is purely hypothetical at this point; the Red Sox may not want to move him at all, not for anyone. That’s totally fine and their prerogative. If that’s the case, they’re going to war post-deadline with a shaky pitching staff. Price is on the downswing of his career, Wright has regressed to the mean, Porcello has been good, and Pomeranz is a major wild card as he enters into never before seen IP territory. If they want to get Papi one more shot a ring, they’re really, really rolling the dice. Again, that’s fine and their decision. I know Moncada was signed for a crazy expensive deal for an amateur player, but Quintana’s contract makes that moot as well. It’d be a wash.
As I mentioned before, The White Sox and Red Sox are a perfect trade partner. The White Sox need to blow it up and build from the ground up. The Red Sox are in win now mode, but have shaky starting pitching to pair with the best offense in baseball.
Question – how often do you see the best offense in baseball win a world series? Not very. Pitching dominates the playoffs and the Red Sox pitching is average at best. In a hypothetical trade, Jose Quintana completely changes the dynamic of that starting staff. In a 5 game series, Quintana/Price/Porcello gives you a GREAT shot of emerging victorious. A lot better than Price/Wright/Porcello. Especially in the playoffs when teams are more prone to small ball and stealing bases, which doesn’t bode well for a knuckle ball pitcher, but plays into a LHP’s favor.
The price for acquiring a pitcher of Quintana’s caliber won’t come cheap though. It’ll command a prospect pool that’s comprised of some of the best projected talent in baseball. The Red Sox have a wealth of that projected talent. It starts with Yoan Moncada, aka Red Sox fans “next trout”. But let’s take a look at what Moncada is doing in AA right now before we call him the next Mike Trout.
He’s hitting .295/.404/.511 with a .915 OPS. Fantastic numbers. Also has 43 stolen bases. That said… he’s striking out at a 30% clip. That’s Adam Dunn territory. Moncada also has 20 strike outs in his last 43 at bats with a .189/.222 slash line. He’s also only got 12 home runs, the aforementioned Travis Demeritte has double that amount. Once Moncada is introduced to BIG LEAGUE pitching, which is clearly a year away, advanced scouts are going to open a book on him and he’s going to have major periods of adjustments to make. If you look at his contact rates there’s no arguing that fact, big league pitching will eat him up for a while.
He’s also hit 100% of his home runs as a lefty. He’s carrying a .158/.273/.211 slash line as a right handed hitter with ONE extra base hit. I don’t think I need to say it out loud, but I will anyways: that’s not good. That’s so bad against AA pitching that if he wants to play in The Show come 2017, he’ll have to probably give up switch hitting. That or learn to hit as a righty, which doesn’t come easy if it’s not natural to you. What this shows me is that he’s at least a year a way from playing at the highest level, bare minimum.
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Yes, Moncada is a world class talent and could turn into a perennial all star. Keyword in that statement is “could”. The White Sox would be the ones taking all of the risk in this trade. They’d be moving an all star, grade A ace for players (yes, plural) they hope will be good. The Red Sox would be acquiring a top 15ish pitcher in baseball who is just now starting to hit his stride in this league.
Here’s a few examples of recent top prospects that didn’t pan out
Off the top of my head:
Byron Buxton – consensus #1 prospect in all major publications 2015 and prior. Called the next “willie mays”. Had nintendo numbers advancing through the Twins system. Now people are ready to write him off as a 4th outfielder who can steal bases but not hit his weight.
Jacob Turner – ranked as high as the 10th best prospect in baseball in 2011. Was supposed to team with Scherzer and Verlander to make the best 1-2-3 SP combo in baseball. He was recently released by Detroit, the Marlins, and the Cubs. He’s now in long relief for the White Sox and as soon as Rodon is healthy, will most likely be DFAd by them as well. He’s only 25 and it goes without say, he’s a bust.
Jayson Heyward – ranked 1st overall and ahead of Stanton and Strasburg in 2010 Baseball America. Got paid, has been pretty decent offensively, but is known as a defense first player. Wasn’t the future Hall of Famer he was guaranteed to be by oh so many people. He’s currently one of the worst offensive players in baseball.
Gordon Beckham – ranked 15th by Baseball America in 2009, he’s a utility player.
Colby Rasmus – Ranked 3rd by Baseball America in 2009, he’s an okay starting OF
I could rattle off a dozen other names. Prospects are exactly what their name says; prospects. They’ll break your goddamn heart. I thought Gordon Beckham was gonna be the next Chase Utley. WOW was I wrong on that one. There is less of a hit rate on baseball prospects than any other sport. Yes, I want the White Sox to trade Quintana as much as that kills me. Yes, I want them to take the gamble and trade for players that are truly unpredictable once they reach The Show. But if the White Sox start trading off everyone on their roster, they’ll hit on at least a handful of the prospects they return and will be setting themselves up for a future of sustained success. No more of this patchwork, half assed bullshit that they’ve tried to make work since 2005. And some of their players are so good, that they’ll return players in the mold of a Yoan Moncada. Again, if you don’t see that, you just don’t get baseball.
I need it to be August 2nd so, so badly.
Go ahead and try and argue with me. You can’t win this one.