Bird Watching- A Look Into The Orioles Second Half, Spoiler Alert- The O's Need Pitching Help.
Seems like it’s been weeks since the O’s played a game, but don’t worry, baseball is back. The Birds are currently in first place, 15 games above .500 at 51-36. Only two games separate them from the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. The Yankees and Rays are done, no need to worry about them, but you already know that both the Jays and Sox will make a run at this division. With the additions that Boston has made in the last week (P Drew Pomeranz, 3B Aaron Hill, and CP Brad Ziegler), and barring any more big injuries, they’re going to be there in the end, it’s going to happen. Now we have to see if the O’s will be finishing ahead of them, and see if this forces their hand to make some trades to address the starting pitching situation.
Trading For A Pitcher
The Orioles will be hard pressed to make the playoffs with this current rotation. I know they’re in first place with this garbage rotation, but I honestly don’t think this team can keep this up with the rotation. With only two, maybe three guys who you feel comfortable going into a series with, something has to be done. Even in the playoffs when you can run out a four-man rotation, no one in Baltimore would feel confident with a foursome of Tillman, Gausman, Gallardo, and ……? Who do you throw in that fourth spot? Mike Wright? Ubaldo Jimenez? A combo of Tyler Wilson and Dylan Bundy? That rotation doesn’t scare anyone. Have to add a piece to this rotation.
With Drew Pomeranz going to the Red Sox, that takes the biggest name out of the pot for the O’s. With what the Red Sox gave up for Pomeranz, Anderson Espinoza, the third ranked player in Boston’s farm system, it seems like it would have taken a big haul from the O’s to get Pomeranz. The Red Sox #3 minor leaguer is not equal to the O’s third ranked minor league player. Back in February, Steve Melewski ranked Chance Sisco as the O’s third ranked prospect, in my opinion it likely would have taken a package of Trey Mancini, Chance Sisco, Christian Walker, or Hunter Harvey to get Pomeranz from the Padres. He was cheap, under team control for a few more years, and has proven that he can pitch. With Pomeranz out of the question, who else is there to go after?
Rich Hill- I want nothing to do with Rich Hill. I know that he has a sub-3 ERA this season, and a 1.091 WHIP, but I just don’t buy into the hype of this 36-year-old who seemed to find the fountain of youth. How do we know his arm is going to hold up into October? Even though he is on pace for over 100 IP this season, he’s only ever reached that plateau once in his career, back in 2006. Him being a lefty doesn’t automatically make him a weapon for the O’s, I just don’t buy into him and think this is sort of a fluke season for him, even with what he did in his short time with Boston last season. Unless the Birds are one giving up a guy from Frederick or Bowie, I’m not really digging this Rich Hill reunion.
Ervin Santana- The O’s kicked these tires back before 2014 when they signed Ubaldo Jimenez, and with reports that the O’s recently had scouts in Minnesota to watch someone, chances are it was Santana. He is owed more, but is under team control for a few more years too. He’s not missing many bats, only 6.6 K/9, has an ERA over 4, and a WHIP of 1.290. While he would 100% be an upgrade over Jimenez, Wright, or Wilson at this point, I can’t see the O’s moving some minor league pieces AND paying Santana’s salary. I’m out on Ervin as well.
Jeremy Hellickson- Hellickson is a guy who intrigues me, the O’s have seen him before when he was with Tampa, so he’s pitched in these small A.L. East ballparks a good amount, he’s under 30, but would likely be a rental. He’s striking out almost eight per nine innings pitched, and his 3.92 ERA is his lowest since 2012. If the O’s don’t make a trade for him this offseason, he could be a guy to keep an eye on as a free agent heading into next season.
Promote From Within- Maybe the O’s fourth and fifth starter are already in an Orioles uniform, or possibly even down in the minors? It’s not very likely, but there are some guys out there. We’ve seen Vance Worley make two starts, but I think he has a good role and is comfortable with it. Odrisamer Despaigne is another candidate. He has looked pretty good this season, and has the history of being a starter. There is also Dylan Bundy….. I think we eventually see Dylan make a handful of starts in August or September, but he won’t be getting the ball every fifth day when it comes to the playoffs. Need to get him more stretched out first, then the starts will come. (Update- Bundy is getting the start on Sunday)
There are also some guys in the minors who have the ability to start. Joe Gunkel, prospect who came over in the Alejandro De Aza trade from Boston (and fellow Pokemon Go player) hasn’t looked bad in Norfolk, 5-7, a 4.15 ERA, and WHIP of 1.220 in 14 starts. We saw a peek of Ariel Miranda up here this season, in Triple-A he has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.220 WHIP. Chris Lee down in Bowie has been wonderful this season, but has been hurt for the past month, before his injury, you probably would have heard rumors of him coming up.
Long story short, the O’s don’t really have anyone in the pen, or in the minors ready to come up and contribute to this rotation, something has to be done, and if I hear “trade Mark Trumbo for a pitcher” one more time I’m going to go crazy. I want them to be aggressive, but don’t be stupid. IF they make a deal for a pitcher, I can see it being more of a Scott Feldman/Bud Norris type move, not a big name guy.
Second Half Predictions
-Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado will finish the season with over 52.5 HR. I threw this question out in December, and seeing as Schoop has 14, and Manny has 19, giving them 33 on the year. 10 more each from them and they hit the over. I think Schoop continues his hot streak into the second half and he takes off.
– August is a power month for Chris Davis, in his career he has hit 37 of his 225 career bombs in the month. He hit 10 bombs last August, seven in 2014, and nine in 2013. In the second half he just seems to get things going, his average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS are all higher in the second half. I expect to see Davis at right around 35-40 homers and 100 driven in by the time the season is over. Plus, he and Samson are featured on this sweet bobblehead being given away on August 20th.
– The Orioles WON’T break the all-time record for home runs hit. Despite me saying that Manny, Schoop, and Davis will stay hot, I don’t see them breaking the record. The Birds are at 137 right now with 75 games left. The record is 264 by the ’97 Mariners, that leaves them 127 homers shy. Who knows if the O’s will have a insane June like they had. Say Manny hits 12, Schoop hits 10, Jones hits 10, Davis hits 15, Trumbo hits 15, Rickard hits 2, Kim hits 5, Wieters hits 8, Hardy hits 5, Flaherty hits 4, Remold hits 4, Alvarez hits 7 and Caleb hits 3, that’s only 100 home runs. Now give or take a few from these projections, but I think it’ll be tough to keep up this pace. Where do those extra 28 homers come from? Prove me wrong O’s.
– Caleb Joseph WILL have more RBIs in the second half than he did in the first. I’ll take that bet all damn day.
– Kevin Gausman will also pick up his first road win since August of 2014, it’s impossible to go as long as he has without a road win.
Upcoming
Friday, July 15 @ Tampa- Yovani Gallardo (3-1 5.82) vs Chris Archer (4-12 4.66)
Saturday, July 16 @ Tampa- Chris Tillman (12-2 3.41) vs Matt Moore (5-6 4.46)
Sunday, July 17 @ Tampa- Dylan Bundy vs Jake Odorizzi (3-5 4.47)
Monday, July 18 @ New York- Kevin Gausman (1-6 4.15) vs ?????
Tuesday, July 19 @ New York- ??????? vs ?????????
Wednesday, July 20 @ New York- Yovani Gallardo (3-1 5.82) vs Michael Pineda (3-8 5.38)
Thursday, July 21 @ New York- Chris Tillman (12-2 3.41) vs C.C. Sabathia (5-6 3.77)
It was just announced this morning that Bundy is starting on Sunday. The kid is getting his chance. A seven-game roady to start the second half off vs the two worst teams in the division, getting five or six of these would be great, with this unknown rotation, I’d say five wins is more realistic. O’s have been great at home, and bad on the road, they have 41 of the last 75 games on the road, if they want to stay atop the division, they have to win over half their away games.
Start this second half off right with a sweep of this last place Tampa team.