Barstool’s EURO 2016 Final Preview & Betting Guide

Sam's Army7/10/2016 6:02 PM

Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies

Hi haters,

So here we are. France versus Ronaldo for all the marbles.

I gotta go run around and kick a ball poorly in a game of my own here in a minute so this is going to be a quick hitter… let’s get to it.

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UEFA EURO 2016

Soccer is a funny game sometimes.

Les Bleus came into the tournament as the betting favorites, but soon fell out of favour after disappointing performances in the group stage, which included ugly wins over Romania and Albania and an even uglier nil-nil draw with Switzerland, and was followed by an unconvincing win over Ireland despite conceding early. Solid 5-2 win against Iceland aside though, they were thoroughly outplayed by Germany for much of the semi-final game… and yet, here they are.

Things get even weirder when taking a look at how Portugal finagled its way into the final. The 2-0 win over Wales in the semi-final was its FIRST WIN in regulation all competition. “Impressive” is not a word that has been thrown around much with this team very much, though I have been extremely impressed by Ronaldo’s restraint in never physically attacking Nani on the field of play over the years they have been playing together for the national team. [Note: in fairness, Nani has been surprisingly productive throughout this particular tournament.]

So did the two “best” teams make the final? The only right answer is it does not matter… cause this is who we got.

Portugal [+350]
France [+100]
Draw [+210]

As the lines indicate, France is clearly the better team on paper. Antoine Griezman can’t stop scoring goals, Paul Pogba hasn’t been exactly lights out but even while playing at 80-percent is still better than 10/11ths of Portugal’s squad, and they’ve got Hugo Boss in net.

Offensively, everything changed for France when Griezman was move to the center of the field from the wing in the first knockout game, which has led to more than twice as many shots despite facing stronger competition. On the other side of the ball, France has only conceded four goals, and after looking a little porous against Iceland did a good job of shutting down even Ze German’s vaunted attack – though the absence of Mario Gomez up top certainly helped as well.

Portugal has stuck to a very conservative style and counted on moments of magic from players like Renato Sanches, Nani and especially Ronaldo. Pepe has been surprisingly solid in defense, and his return from injury (missed the Wales game) will be a much needed boost.

As far as rules go, there are two maxims worth keeping in mind.

1) France always wins tournaments held in France

2) Portugal never wins tournaments regardless of where they are held

Bottom line: anybody hoping this game is going to be a brilliant exemplar of jogo bonito is probably going to be very disappointed. In fact, if today’s game is at all “entertaining” there is a 99.9% chance that France ends up lifting the trophy. Having said that, call my cynical if you must but….

Prediction: Portugal wins on PKs after a regrettable 1-1 draw

Boobies!

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So there you have it. This has been a fun month, which is only going to make the next month all the more painful… though it could be a perfect opportunity for you to get (re)acquainted with MLS if you haven’t already done so. Also, for those of you itching for soccer-related happenings there will be plenty of transfer news and summer tours of all the European big boys to whet your appetite for August 13th.