Kmarko's DraftKings Picks - September 22
Welcome back to the daily DraftKings picks where we try to get super rich playing daily fantasy baseball. As usual I’ll do a brief recap of my lineups from the night before then throw out some picks that I’m brainstorming for tonight, and hopefully get some good feedback/tips/picks from you guys either in the comment section or on Twitter @kmarkobarstool.
Last night lineup breakdown – didn’t quite hit my goal of a 200 point lineup.
My optimal lineup JUST missed cashing in the Payoff Pitch…
While my secondary lineup did a little better.
Blog picks – yuck. Arenado with the total dud (0 points in Coors against AJ Burnett? What’s your problem dude?) Jose Abreu gave me an RBI double then disappeared. Tommy Pham the value play was the highest score of the bunch and I didn’t even end up using him, like an idiot.
In a stunning turn of events, I’ve actually gotten better at picking my pitchers than my hitters. I remember the days when my blog picks would hit 2 home runs each every night, and then I wouldn’t cash because my pitchers both had negative points. Now if I could JUST find a way to combine good pitchers WITH good hitters…then I think I’d really be onto something.
Hopefully I can do that tonight. The $250K Tuesday Special is only 20 bucks to join and has $250,000 guaranteed so I’ll probably get 2-3 lineups in there. Here are my thoughts on pitchers for the night and 3 hitters I’m targeting.
PITCHERS
We’ve got a bunch of good pitching options tonight spread all around the price tiers.
-Jake Arrieta is easily the best of the bunch and has a great matchup, but he’s sitting way up at $14.5K. That’s borderline Kershaw pricing. His floor is basically 25 points at this point so I definitely think he’s worth it, but you gotta decide if you want the safety of Arrieta or the explosive upside of Coors bats.
-I’ll be avoiding Salazar tonight. I know, I know, he has 40 point upside, but he’s burned me too many times, and the Twins are sneaky good at home.
-Picking the right guy in the next tier I think is going to be key for winning a tourney tonight – high upside guys that each have their own risk. Ross, Lackey, Iwakuma, Quintana and McCullers. My top choice, gun to head: Lackey.
-I like Gio, Koehler and Santana in the mid range, and Henry Owens and Logan Verrett as two low-upside value plays that will at least help you squeeze in some bats as you pray to God they don’t completely implode.
HITTERS
1B Anthony Rizzo $5.1K
A little pricey on most nights, but when you look at all the Coors price bumps and other expensive hitters, Rizzo is actually kind of a value tonight. Bryce Harper and McCutchen are probably your top 2 hitters of the night, but they’re priced out for me – I’ll dip down to Rizzo at 5.1 instead, who I think has just as good a shot of going deep off Cravy. And, of course, he’s got the #2 wOBA of the night right behind his buddy Schwarber.
2B Dustin Pedroia $4.6K
The Red Sox season is effectively over, but Pedroia is just getting started. After missing a ton of time with an injury, the dude (and Barstool fan) is red hot right now – actually that might be an understatement. Check his game log. Double digit points in 6 out of his last 7, including a 36 and 25 point night in there. And tonight he gets a lefty, Matt Moore, who has been THE pitcher to take hitters against lately.
Just found out 8 minutes before post time that Pedroia is out tonight. Sucks because he was by far my favorite play. Alternate pick:
OF George Springer $4.4K
The ‘Stros are a top 5 offense to target tonight and a good place to look to go contrarian away from Coors. Springer is hot with double digit points in 3 straight, looks like he finally has his swing back after his injury, and is hitting in the 2 hole against a lefty. Don’t like the play as much as I did Pedroia but it is what it is, hopefully the last minute addition will be some good juju.
VALUE PLAY SS Jordy Mercer $3.1K
Might be a chalk play but come on – I have to put Mercer here. Before Kang went down the guy basically only ever played against lefties because he mashed them so hard – now he has a lefty, at Coors field, with the highest total of the night, and a price that is basically free. Don’t overthink this one. And just like I said with Arenado last night, even if this pick doesn’t pan out, I’ll sleep easy knowing it’s the right one.
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That’s it for me, hit me up @kmarkobarstool with your plays of the night. Maybe help me out getting a good hitter in my lineup, that would be nice. Also if you enjoy the blogs and are depositing tonight use my referral code, we’ll both get hooked up with a free ticket.