If The Yankees Are Done Adding To Their Starting Rotation Then They'll Need Hope and Prayer To Make It Work
We're a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training and it seems like besides the bullpen, the Yankees have closed up shop in terms of additions to the roster. Barring the market drastically coming down, this is it.
Heading into the offseason the main goals were two-prone —help Aaron Judge with the offense and add multiple starting pitchers. Step 1? Juan Soto. It was a move that had to happen and they got it done. Mission accomplished. Every now and then this offseason I've stopped to remind myself that Juan Soto is a New York Yankee. My day gets better every time. While this offense likely isn't a one person fix, it's never a bad idea to add one of the best bats in the sport. That helps you solve a lot of issues. It'll also be on guys like Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu to have resurgent years as well as young guys like Volpe, Austin Wells and Jasson Dominguez to make bigger impacts. Hearing that The Martian is progressing from surgery and expected back in the Summer is awesome news. Please give me a 2-3-4 of Judge, Soto, and Dominguez. Hey maybe even Giancarlo Stanton does something with his new diet? Alright let's not too ahead of ourselves.
In terms of the rotation, the Yankees needed to add two starters to feel good about themselves. Well, they added one with Marcus Stroman. As of right now they view the markets for Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery too high for their liking and not worth the long term deals they're each seeking. I've already explained my thoughts on Stroman here. I absolutely have my worries, but what he has to offer on the mound can definitely help this team win. So far so good with yesterday's opening media session. He seemed genuinely excited and giddy to be here and get going. Him and Cashman apparently squashed their beef immediately as they set sights on him joining this team. Easy to do that when Cash didn't want to overpay for the bigger names and Stroman didn't many suitors. Regardless, the dude just has to realize if he pitches well here they will love you. If you suck they'll boo you. It goes for everyone. Gerrit Cole got booed in 2022. Now he's beloved. I'd kill for him if he asked. Just do your job and good things will happen.
Am I confident in Stroman being the team's number 2? Not in the slightest. In fact, it's pretty concerning. We're talking about a guy who hasn't thrown over 140 innings in either of his last two seasons. His vesting option for year 3 with the Yankees is contingent on him only throwing 140 innings in year two. Does any of that give you a vote of confidence he can pitch long enough in 2024 to be a valuable number 2? How can it?
As I said in the Stroman signing blog, the Yankees 2024 chances greatly rest on the left arm of Carlos Rodon. If he returns to form then the Yankees are full speed ahead. Starting the year off on a positive note, we're getting "best shape of his life" reports from Rodon early on. Keep em coming.
Look at this skinny bastard!
Rodon's first year in New York was an unmitigated disaster. He was out of shape and injured all year. When he finally got on the mound in the second half of the season, the results were abysmal. We need him to turn this around otherwise they have no shot at a title. If Rodon can pitch like the guy they signed he slots in as the true number two behind Cole. Kinda of a 1A/1B situation. That gives you a five man looking like this.
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1-Gerrit Cole
2-Carlos Rodon
3-Marcus Stroman
4-Nestor Cortes
5-Clarke Schmidt
Stroman as your three makes you feel a lot better. Nestor missed a ton of 2023 with shoulder issues, but at the moment appears to have put that injury behind him as he expects to have a normal Spring Training. The worry there is that shoulder issues, more specifically rotator cuff, never really go away. Nestor is capable of pitching like a two, but you have to be extremely concerned about his body holding up. Clarke Schmidt had a positive 2023 and discovered an ability to pitch in to lefties. He's got upside, but having him slotted as the number five is a good thing.
When you look at potential, it's definitely there for this Yankees starting rotation. That unfortunately comes with a dangerous health gamble, as per usual with this team. Banking on Rodon and Nestor to have healthy 2024s is risky. Hoping Stroman doesn't break down like he did in the second half will have you holding your breath. And what happens if one or multiple pieces crumble? This is all assuming Cole is Cole, by the way. No reason to think he won't be, but it puts a ton of pressure on him. He gets paid the big bucks to handle it, I just wish they built a more reliable staff behind him.
The depth beyond that 5 is troubling.
Luke Weaver as your next best option? Woof. Luis Gil being available again is fun, but it remains to be seen what you count on him for. Then you're turning to prospects like Clayton Beeter, Will Warren, and Chase Hampton. All three of those guys have solid to big time upside, but again, they're kids. A rotation held together by a string with kids being the backup options is terrifying when your goal is a championship. Can it work? Sure, but you'd rather more assurances.
In a perfect world the Yankees find a way to execute a trade for Corbin Burnes. Unfortunately the Brewers are either not entertaining serious offers or are holding his price tag sky high. It feels like given the current state of the market, Cashman wants to wait and see what he's got with this five for at least the first half of the year. If things are not going to plan then he'll call Milwaukee, who almost certainly have zero plans to pay Burnes, and work something out at the deadline.
The Yankees payroll is over $300M for the first time in their history, so it's not like they're nickel and diming here. They wanted to pay Yamamoto handsomely, but he clearly only wanted to play for the Dodgers with Ohtani. They've reportedly offered Snell 6 years, $150M. To me that's a completely fair deal for a guy who is on the wrong side of 30, walks a ton of guys, and has some subpar years sandwiched between his two Cy Young campaigns. Montgomery is still out there, but the interest of a reunion on his side doesn't appear to be there. Both would obviously strengthen this rotation, but I see the reservations. Would be a real shame if Snell didn't get what he wanted and had to accept that $150M deal, just saying.
So if this it for the rotation it obviously has upside, but man are there red flags. You can easily see the path to this falling apart and it's right in front of us. Cashman has a fetish for relying on injury prone pitchers. In 2024 it'll be no different.