30-52-2 (-6.4 units)
Yesterday was a very good day. We went 2-1. I took a flyer out on the Blue Jays, thinking that they would bounce back against the Baltimore Orioles. I don't know why I can't give up on the idea that the Blue Jays will never reach their full potential. I get suckered into them way too often. They got demolished at home by the Orioles last night. We'll see how things play out long-term, but if anyone is questioning the morale of the Baltimore Orioles after a very lame trade deadline, last night's game indicates that there's nothing to be concerned about. The Rays beat up the New York Yankees once again. The Yankees are a dead team walking. I don't know if I've ever said this, but I don't see a pathway to them making the playoffs. They seem demoralized. The Astros, despite Framber Valdez throwing a no-hitter against the Guardians, made me sweat it out a bit because they only covered the -1.5 run line by winning 2-0, but everything worked out in the end. We are now officially in a post-trade deadline universe. It's yet to be decided how I will view that from a gambling perspective. Only time will tell. Let's look at today's picks. ￼
Marlins ML (+115) against the Phillies
Last night was a very demoralizing loss for the Miami Marlins. Sandy Alcantara looked like the pitcher they took home the 2022 Cy Young. He tossed eight scoreless frames, only for new acquisition David Robertson to give up three in the top of the ninth. That's a tough pill to swallow. At the same time, things are starting to look up for the Miami Marlins. I really like the deadline they had. They added a few promising bats, including Jake Burger. They will have their work cut out for them tonight against Zack Wheeler, who can always shut down a lineup. But I like Braxton Garrett. His numbers aren't elite, but he has the potential to be a star in this league. Marlins pitching shut down the Phillies through eight innings last night. I expect their starter to quiet Philadelphia's bats once again this evening. ￼
Giants -1.5 (+120) against the Diamondbacks
I'm a big Logan Webb guy. He is a severely underrated pitcher. He's had a few rough outings lately, but he likes pitching in San Francisco. Since he came into the league, he's been dominant at Oracle Park. In 47 starts , he's 21-14 with a 2.82 ERA. The Diamondbacks have a pitcher going tonight that I've never heard of. The Diamondbacks did a good job of adding a few pieces at the deadline, but they failed to address that once you get past Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, this rotation isn't much to write about. Webb has had two outings this year against Arizona, and he went seven strong in both. I expect him to do that once again against the Snakes tonight. ￼￼
Trent Grisham to homer (+500) against the Rockies
I'm on the right track with this one. Coors Field is the right place to do it if you're going to bet a home run prop. Grisham hit a huge home run a few nights ago to tie the game in the top of the ninth for the Padres. They would ultimately go on to lose that game, but he likes hitting in Colorado, and even more than that, he really likes hitting Kyle Freeland. He only has six hits in 27 career at-bats, but three are home runs, and his OPS isn't even 1.000. It's a little bit strange that those numbers are that good considering it's a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but when you're facing someone at Colorado, I will always be inclined to give the advantage to the hitter. I almost went with Juan Soto, who has been hot as a pistol over the last few weeks (when is Juan Soto never not hot?), but the value needed to be better. I like the value here with Grisham.