It took four weeks but NFL bettors have finally had a winning week against sportsbooks. If you noticed waking on Monday, public bettors CLEANED up.
Several of the most bet teams came in, including the Cowboys, Cardinals, Chiefs, and Titans. All of those games reported 70+ plus percent of the bets coming on them. Even very public teams right now like the Eagles and Chargers came in laying under a touchdown. Additionally betting the OVER in Lions games came in as that game saw over 90 combined points.
The books would come back a bit last night as the Niners beat the very public bet Rams which helped a bit. But as Purdum said above, these casinos aren't going to have any issues opening today. The truth of the matter is every trashcan gets a steak once in awhile and I know this, the books will get revenge, they always do.
So, PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Bet very smartly the next couple of weeks as these things can often swing from one extreme to the other.
That said, here's a few other things to know going forward:
The Atlanta Falcons are the only 4-0 team ATS in the league. My coworker Big Ev made a pretty damn astute comment about the Falcons. He said "they would be the team everyone thinks sucks, that doesn't suck". He has been dead on the money there.
Arthur Smith looks like he can really coach and they still haven't even gotten a ton out of Kyle Pitts. OVERs with this group might be the way going forward where they are 3-1. Defensively they haven't been good giving up 25+ points a game. They seem to be the team we always remember, score and not stop anyone. The real star so far has been Drake London. After week 4, he has the second highest target share WR in the league only behind Cooper Kupp.
The only 4-0 OVER team in the league is the Lions. This group is allowing almost 36 points a game. They allow 6.5 yards per play and gain 6.5 yards per play. They throw a lot and are extremely good in the red zone scoring touchdowns 88 percent of the time, 2nd in the league. They are also dead last in allowing touchdowns in the red zone at nearly 90 percent of the time. They play fast too, sitting in the top 10 in pace.
There's no secret as to why games are going OVER, plus playing in a dome will continue to aid this number. The Lions won't play a truly tough road game condition wise until mid November in Chicago. The OVERs should continue too, with games coming against New England, Dallas, Miami, and Green Bay.
Houston has yet to GO OVER this season. I mean is anyone really surprised by that? Houston remains one of the worst offenses in the league and have given no one a reason as to them being competitive this year. They have a dead end quarterback and it's only going to get worse with a very tough schedule. One reason for their awful offensive play? Third down conversion rate on offense. They can't stay on the field and sustain drives converting under 27 percent of their third downs. The only team worse, Carolina, another awful offense.
Baker Mayfield BLOWS. And so does Carolina as a favorite. Under Matt Rhule they are 3-11 ATS laying points including 0-3 this year, which sadly we may not see again because of how bad they are. Mayfield is a disaster. He has the worst QBR in the league at 15.3! He has also thrown for just 747 yards and is completing only 54.7 percent of his passes. He makes bad decisions, bad reads and really just seems too small. No quarterback in the NFL has more passes batted down at the line of scrimmage since 2018. It's going to be a long season in Carolina. It also doesn't get much easier with a trip to mighty San Francisco, who might have ten sacks on Baker.