Steven Cheah's Bold 2021 NFL Predictions

Steven Cheah9/09/2021 5:00 PM

With the NFL season kicking off tonight with the WORLD CHAMPION Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Dallas Cowboys, I decided to again comb through the entire NFL schedule and pick the winner of every game. The below are the results of that experiment based on raw data. Meaning, these records could actually happen. 272 wins, 272 losses. All dispersed amongst 32 teams. And at the very bottom I've got league superlatives.

AFC East

1) Buffalo Bills (15-2) #1 seed in AFC

Josh Allen is the real deal and with defensive minded Sean McDermott as HC, this team will be stout on that side of the ball. Stefon Diggs looks to build upon a career year and Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Gabe Davis round out a good receiving group. I like them to take the AFC by storm *in the regular season.

2) New England Patriots (10-7) #6 seed in AFC

This is a completely new team. No Cam Newton anymore and they're getting some reinforcements with guys returning from the COVID/opt-out list as well as a slew of free agent signings. I foresee them going to a ground and pound attack and utilizing their tight ends a ton with their rookie Quarterback Mac Jones. Look for him to have success in a condensed playbook for the Pats.

3) Miami Dolphins (7-10)

Will it click with Tua? There are rumors that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross really wants Deshaun Watson, even amid all his legal issues. That's not exactly a vote of confidence. This team will be banking on rookie EDGE Jaelan Phillips generating some pressure so they can maximize their backend where two stud CBs in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones anchor their secondary.

4) New York Jets (5-12)

I think the Jets will show legit progress on the field. They've made some sneaky good draft picks the last few years under GM Joe Douglas. It'll be a building year for them under new HC Robert Saleh, so don't expect a ton of Ws, but they'll be fun to watch with a solid running game and rookie QB Zach Wilson making some highlight throws.

AFC North

1) Cleveland Browns (12-5) #3 seed in AFC

The Browns are a very good team that is strong in almost every area. They possess the league's best Offensive Line, the top RBs in the league with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and blue chip guys on defense with EDGE Myles Garrett and CB Denzel Ward. They improved their secondary with the signing of S John Johnson this off-season and are hoping to get some promising young players back to health. Watch out for this team in January and maybe even February…

2) Baltimore Ravens (9-8) #7 seed in AFC

Baltimore has a formula and they stick to it. They let both of their top pass rushers (Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue) walk in free agency and they'll get compensatory picks for them next year. They've signed aging veteran Justin Houston, but I'm skeptical they'll be able to get after the Quarterback consistently. They have a tremendous back half of their defense, but without pressure, that is less valuable. I do expect Lamar Jackson to improve off of last season and continue to grow as a passer with improved weapons. Once rookie WR Rashod Bateman returns, expect him to be a quality contributor.

3) Cincinnati Bengals (5-12)

The Bengals get out of the basement and actually show some growth! Joe Burrow is back healthy somehow less than 300 days after tearing his ACL and MCL and they've got a loaded group at WR. They did lose Carl Lawson to the Jets, but Trey Hendrickson was a nice replacement to be able to rush the passer. Look for them to show some growth, but still be a ways away.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-12)

I am aware Mike Tomlin has never finished below .500, but I just don't see it for the Steelers this year. They'll be starting up to four new Offensive Lineman and while they play to run it more with rookie RB Najee Harris, I don't see them having sustained success. This is the opposite of the Patriots who cut bait a year too early, they're a year too late with Big Ben. Their defense still has a bunch of dudes, but I foresee a big regression in the Steel City.

AFC South

1) Tennessee Titans (10-6) #4 seed in AFC

They could probably jettison up the ranking if they just signed the boy Will Compton, but they will feel the loss of OC Arthur Smith who is now the Falcons HC. They'll keep the same offensive system in place, but they did lose some pieces like Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis. Julio Jones will try to prove he still has some left in the tank, but this will be all about Derrick Henry and if he can tote the rock another 400+ times this year.

2) Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

It’s hard to pick this team for much sustained success given how the injury bug has already ravaged this team. Carson Wentz looks like he'll play this weekend, but will he be effective coming off a career-worst year? The defense under Matt Eberflus is still very legit and Darius Leonard is capable of winning a Defensive Player of the Year.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14)

It'll be a rough first year for Urban Meyer in Jacksonville. I think Trevor Lawrence will eventually be very good, but it's a big difference from college to the pros and this team simply does not have enough talent. They had zero players on my Top 100 list and it's Jimmy's & Joe's not X's & O's in this league.

4) Houston Texans (2-14)

Yikes this team is in trouble. Has any head coaching hire ever inspired less than the Texans bringing in David Culley? Poor guy, this isn't his fault, but his franchise player will be inactive for quite awhile it seems and going into the season with Tyrod Taylor as your QB1 does not make for a favorable season outlook.

AFC West

1) Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) #2 seed in AFC

It may take a little bit for this team to hit their stride as they may have a completely new Offensive Line to start the year. The good news for Chiefs fans is it will eventually be an improved unit. Look for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to have an improved year now that Le'Veon Bell is out of the picture. This team is every bit of a Super Bowl contender.

2) Denver Broncos (11-6) #5 seed in AFC

I LOVE this team. They're zigging when everyone else is zagging and while Teddy Bridgewater isn't exactly a sexy pick, the guy is a winner. Things didn't work out in Carolina, but I believe he'll be a huge upgrade over Drew Lock efficiency-wise. With Von Miller and Courtland Sutton returning, this team is dangerous. picked them to make the Wild Card in the Barstool Sportsbook at +250, ride with me here:

3) Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

I am a big Justin Herbert fan, but I can foresee him hitting a slight sophomore slump. They have the pieces on defense, but will need to stay healthy for everything to work. I love Austin Ekeler and think he could have 120+ catches this season if he plays the full 17 games. They're just in a really tough division and will struggle to make it to the finish line.

4) Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)

This team continues to compete but not be where they need to be. Fans in the stadium could help as they were a really good road team last year, but dreadful when playing in Sin City. I wouldn't be surprised if Darren Waller is near the top of the league for receiving yards.

Like those AFC Predictions? I'm pleased to announce the debut of my Data Day Parlay - AFC Edition! Ride with me on all my division winners in a custom parlay here

Let's move on to the other conference:

NFC East

1) Washington Football Team (10-7) #4 seed in NFC

This team is built like Ron Rivera's old Panthers teams with the Amish Rifle Ryan Fitzpatrick playing the role of the Ragin' Cajun Jake Delhomme. Their defense is LOADED with four 1st round studs across the defensive line. I like them to take a big step forward and make some noise in January. When we talked on the lastest Fantasy Football Factory with Kelly In Vegas, we both liked Washington to win the NFC East at +220 which you can bet in the Barstool Sportsbook here:

2) Dallas Cowboys (8-9)

This team has a lot of talent, but maybe even more question marks. Can Dak return to pre-injury form? Can Zeke bounceback after a career-worst year? Can CeeDee Lamb take the next step and be a dangerous #1 WR? Can the defense keep teams from running it up? I think they'll put up big numbers on offense, but I'm worried about them racking up numbers in the win column. I do however love Micah Parsons to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Great odds at +500 in the Barstool Sportsbook:

3) New York Giants (5-12)

Daniel Jones is not this bad. The guy threw 24 TDs his rookie year in only 12 starts! But he took a big step back last year with only 11 TDs to 10 INTs in 12 starts. Joe Judge is running a weird camp that caused veteran after veteran to retire like they won the Powerball. Can Saquon Barkley make it back to his rookie form? It's hard to bet on this team, but one thing I do like is Kenny Golladay to produce.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (4-13)

A lot of people are buying Jalen Hurts stock after just four starts. It's smells a little funny to me that the team traded for Gardner Minshew a few weeks ago, so I'm not sure how high they can be on Hurts if they're making moves for very talented, young backup QBs. It all really hinges on Hurts, but they will be way more healthy in the trenches which does count for something. I would also look for DeVonta Smith to have a big year as the Eagles don't have many other playmakers.

NFC North

1) Green Bay Packers (13-4) #2 seed in NFC

All Matt LaFleur does is win 13 games. He's done it in each of his first two seasons in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams appear to be content going into this season with a 'Last Dance' mentality, so can they finally get the Packers over the finish line in January?

2) Minnesota Vikings (7-10)

They'll get a big boost with Danielle Hunter returning, but I don't think this division is very good. Dalvin Cook is lights out when he plays, but he's missed multiple games in each of his first four seasons. Justin Jefferson had a banner rookie season, can he build upon it in Year 2?

3) Chicago Bears (5-12)

I want it documented Matt Nagy is a liar and will play Justin Fields this season. My guess is it'll be early cause this team STINKS.

Nagy and likely Pace will be gone after this season and in January we'll be wondering if Justin Fields is a fit in the new Coach's offense.

4) Detroit Lions (4-13)

This team is giving Jared Goff an audition, but building for the future. Hopefully rookie OT Penei Sewell can have a successful transition to RT after playing LT his whole life and keep Goff upright. Because when he has time, Goff is lethal. D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will look to carry the load on offense and while I love Dan Campbell, this isn't an inspiring group.

NFC South

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-3) #1 seed in NFC

They're 'Going For Two' and Tom Brady's got 'Eyes on Eight' and while that all sounds great, let's see how it looks on the field. Being as they brought back all 22 of their starters (h/t GM Jason Licht and VP of Football Ops Mike Greenberg on a job well done there), let's see if this team can fight the disease of winning. I think that with Brady being the head of the snake they won't just be content with their accomplishments. This team is the most talented in Football and has a real chance to be the first team to repeat since Tom Brady did it in the early-2000s.

2) Carolina Panthers (9-8) #7 seed in NFC

I am buying Panthers stock as do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey is back to carry the mail for the Sir Purr's favorite team. Sam Darnold is an interesting reclamation project at QB and it wouldn't surprise me to see Brian Burns lead the league in sacks. They are loaded at WR with Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, and rookie Terrace Marshall Jr., so this should be a fun offense to watch. The one thing I would be wary of is Red Zone execution. They were terrible in one score games last year and Teddy Bridgewater said they don't practice it nearly enough there. That may be a Matt Rhule problem…

3) New Orleans Saints (8-9)

It's hard to project a Jameis Winston team for a much better record than this. He's just so up and down. The loss of Michael Thomas til mid-late October is a disaster and who knows what he'll be like when he comes back. This defense is a good unit and will keep them close in a lot of games, but it'll fall on the shoulders of the former Heisman Trophy winner to finish games and I don't see him eating nearly enough Ws this year to matter.

4) Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

This team is in salary cap hell and weren't able to really improve a defense that was terrible last year. Kyle Pitts will be a stud in the Pros, but Tight Ends historically don't ramp up quickly in the league. I would look for Calvin Ridley to potentially lead the league in receiving yards, but I think this team will be trailing way more than they'll be leading.

NFC West

1) Los Angeles Rams (13-4) #3 seed in NFC

Matthew Stafford x Sean McVay will be something. Their passing offense will be a sight to behold as I'm expecting both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to have career years. On Defense, DC Raheem Morris replaces Brandon Staley who went to the other LA team to be the HC, but they've still got Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, so they'll be more than ok on that side of the ball.

2) Arizona Cardinals (12-5) #5 seed in NFC

I'm buying the Cardinals big time. This is Kyler Murray's time and don't be surprised if he wins MVP. Look for future HOFer Deandre Hopkins to have a career year after his first regular off-season with K1 and HC Kliff Kingsbury. I can't say the same for J.J. Watt who is battling Father Time.

3) San Francisco 49ers (11-6) #6 seed in NFC

This team was ravaged with injuries last season with several big contributors missing half the season or more. Look for them to bounce back and have an interesting QB situation with Jimmy G and rookie Trey Lance stealing some reps early in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if they used him for a few snaps a game to start before eventually giving him the job. This defense was elite with Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw, and Fred Warner. Look for that unit to keep games close all year.

4) Seattle Seahawks (9-8)

Russell Wilson missing the playoffs?! I have them above .500, but this division is LOADED this year. I like them brining in Shane Woldren as OC this year after his time with the Rams. Look for more three WR looks and for Russ to finally be able to cook in peace. They still just don't have enough on defense. When your best pass rusher is a Safety, that ain't a winning recipe…

Like what you see with the NFC division winner predictions? Ride with Me in my NFC Data Day Parlay here: