I know I'm biased and I know we haven't hit this bet yet but sooner or later the Cubs are going to win because of a Kris Bryant home run and I think that happens tonight. Shane Bieber is too good of a pitcher for KB not to be locked in from the start. I know that's backwards logic but KB is the kind of guy that gets better when the stuff is great. I don't need to pull the advanced stats but if you look at his primetime seasons, the data is there. The evidence supports my theory. KB to hit a home run tonight means the Cubs win and I think KB is in for some phenomenal plate appearances. Ipso facto the value settles strong on +1200.
GO TO EXCLUSIVES
Opposite KB is Adbert Alzolay who is pitching with the kind of confidence you don't see from Cubs farm hands. Just a massively different vibe with him on the mound from last year. You can see the offseason work paying off in real time as he's commanding his slider with intent. It's not an uncontrollable out pitch with potential anymore. It's a bonafide developed major league pitch and so far he's mixing it masterfully with his battery mate Willson Contreras.
At surface level it's a major mismatch but if you dig just a little deeper, the Cubs should be closer to +130. The bullpen is fresh with momentum while the lineup is fresh and well rested after a weekend series at home against the Pirates. This align here where the Cubs have every advantage except the starting pitchers. Alzolay isn't nearly as bad as your unfamiliarity suggests. Value is on the Cubs.
If you think that's stupid, then grab some more value on the Twins -1.5. The White Sox have covered 5 straight run lines and are playing the Twins for the first time this year. Objectively, the Twins have underperformed and strikeout at an alarming rate. More surface level analysis says it's easy to ride with the White Sox -1.5 for +180 but I'm actually going to take the other side Twins -1.5 for +175. That's me trying to get in front of a run-line regression and Kenta Maeda is a good righty for this pick. He's got enough pitch mix to give me confidence opposite Dylan Cease.
Cease is off 3 great starts and looking for his 4th. Could be an easy swing game for him to really take a step this year. He could strikeout double digits and drag his dick on the field. He could also have a mediocre performance which common sense says will happen about 20-25% of the time and still be a great season for him. We're keeping our Sharp caps on and saying theres value on the Twins here to get their shit together tonight against their division rival.
And if all of that sucks, lean on the White Sox over and buy it up to 8 for +115. Smells like a 7-5 game with heavy bullpen usage and a lot of fastballs over the plate.
These are my picks. If they're wrong then it's somebody else's fault.
Cubs to win and KB to homer +1200
Twins -1.5 +175
Twins/White Sox o8 +116
Thanks to Brandon Walker for having me on Picks Central earlier today to break this shit down.